• Posts
  • RSS
  • ◂◂RSS
  • Contact

  • Outdoor dancing is likely very safe

    October 10th, 2021
    contra, covid-19
    After the spontaneous contra dance at Porchfest, I'm helping organize another one. I wanted to get a better sense of how much covid risk an attendee would be taking, so I ran some numbers on microcovid. If everyone is masked and vaccinated, I count ~2.2 microcovids:
    • ~1.7 from your partner. While your partner is not the only person your head gets close to, you're this close to at most one person at a time, so for simplicity assume its your current partner.
    • ~0.2 from your neighbors and next/previous neighbors.
    • ~0.2 from your next/previous hands fours.
    • ~0.08 from the hands fours one farther away.

    If you have multiple lines close together, you could ~double these numbers. Other social dances are likely ~half as risky.

    This is a very low level of risk: about 1% of a cautious risk budget of 200 microcovids/week (1% risk of covid/year).

    I wish I'd run these numbers sooner: this is probably our last chance for an outdoor dance in Boston before spring.


    An outdoor dance in October 2013

    We may end up dancing indoors this winter. Over the next few months I think our communities are likely to move away from treating covid as something where we have a duty to make substantial sacrifices to limit spread. Once everyone is vaccinated who wants to be, including boosters and approving the vaccine for kids, I think people will view the tradeoffs very differently.

    Comment via: facebook, lesswrong

    Recent posts on blogs I like:

    Moral aesthetics

    “Doing good” differs by subculture The post Moral aesthetics appeared first on Otherwise.

    via Otherwise September 29, 2022

    Futurist prediction methods and accuracy

    I've been reading a lot of predictions from people who are looking to understand what problems humanity will face 10-50 years out (and sometimes longer) in order to work in areas that will be instrumental for the future and wondering how accurate thes…

    via Posts on September 12, 2022

    On the Beach

    I really like going in the water and this beach is a great place for building sand castles and boogie boarding. I also like trying to float on top of big waves. I'm not very good at it. I only float on the flat waves.

    via Anna Wise's Blog Posts July 12, 2022

    more     (via openring)


  • Posts
  • RSS
  • ◂◂RSS
  • Contact