details
A shallow dive on stuff that might keep you from getting sick, or shorten your infection.
The post Nose / throat treatments for respiratory infections appeared first on Otherwise.
Early signs of catastrophic risk? Yes and no.
I have several reasons I think why neighborhoods should have speed
bumps.
First, speed bumps are very useful to stop cars from hitting people
in the streets.
Second, when construction workers installed speed bumps on the street
in front of our house it was very useful to me because my parents
decided to let me cross that street, and now I can go to the park and
my friends house and a bunch of other places without my parents having
to walk me there.
There is a downside to speed bumps, which is that whe… Governments could be crucial in the long run, but it's probably best to proceed with caution. Major AI companies can increase or reduce global catastrophic risks. Scenario: You’re working hard on an important seeming problem. Maybe you have an idea to cure a specific form of cancer using mRNA. You’ve been working on the idea for a year or two, and seem to be making slow progress; it is not yet clear whether you will succeed. People are far better at their jobs than at anything else. Here are the best ways to help the most important century go well. love for Wave • why leave • where to • why there • what’s next ...and then some more kids?
The post How did we decide to have a kid? appeared first on Otherwise.
For people who want to help improve our prospects for navigating transformative AI, and have an audience. Exhibits that made me want a better world
The post Crying in museums appeared first on Otherwise.
For Christmas I got a really fun kit about rainbows. It had a rainbow
catcher, a really cool necklace, a streamer thingy, and it also had a
really really cool pinwheel, and it also had a bracelet and a pinata.
Unfortunately the pinata didn't work out that well. I didn't make the
bracelet yet. The pinata just didn't fall apart when we hit it. We
had to take it apart with our hands to get it open.
It even had a really really fun part. Actually, it wasn't really that
fun. It did m…
I think that once a kid is in third grade they should be able to get a
phone. I think that while sometimes parents might want kids not to
have them at certain ages, phones can be quite useful at
times. Tablets don't have GPS, they don't have WiFi when you're out
of the house, but a phone does have all that stuff.
Have you ever tried putting a tablet in your pocket? I don't think
so! They definitely don't fit. But a phone will: they're tiny and
portable, which is quite us… because you’ll have more awesome friendships • be consistent • suggested post ideas • setup advice • getting initial readers The wide range of experiences
The post Breastfeeding: might be nice, might be surprisingly terrible appeared first on Otherwise.
In this post I’ll discuss three reasons to cooperate in a truly one-shot prisoner’s dilemma: Kindness makes common sense, but correlation and reciprocity are often lumped together under “weird acausal stuff.” I think they are worth distinguishing because they work quite differently. I’ll talk about details of correlation and reciprocity, and then argue that most … More Three reasons to cooperate thinking about scary things • examples from Wave • examples from elsewhere • finding a buddy • getting the timing right • a list of abyss questions There’s wide critique on the effective altruism forums of a decision made by Centre for Effective Altruism to purchase a $20M estate in Oxford, Wytham Abbey. deferring to markets • deferring to experts • deferring to low-information heuristics • why they fail • blindness to outliers • what to do instead Things that are an essential part of my annual Thanksgiving experience: smell of delights roasting in the oven all day absurd amounts of food on-point mashed potatoes, gravy, cranberry sauce, etc chaos of family members constantly bumping into each other cooking in the kitchen a few minutes of peace when everyone is actually at the table together, to make a small toast right before we dig in ample wine
I went to a farm and at the farm I got to see a corncrib and the corn
that had fell out of the corncrib that no one wanted I got to use my
fingers to take off the corn kernels and once the cobs were empty I
put them in a bag and then once I got back to the house I was staying
in I ate dinner and I got to work with a few pencils some tape and some
paper and some markers and I used some of the markers to make the eyes
and mouth but I didn't want to add a nose so what I did was I made
little pink s…
When I got my loft bed it
was just so annoying every morning to have to get out of bed, climb
down the ladder, turn the light on, and climb back up, just so I could
see stuff. I decided to make a string for my light switch because I
really wanted to be able to turn on the light from just my bed. I got
to work and got some string and some tape and taped the string to my
light switch. Now I can just pull the string in the morning and turn
the light on, and I don't even have to get out of my loft … How much does it matter for you and for the baby?
The post Childbirth location and safety appeared first on Otherwise.
So far it has been quite easy and practical for me to eat mostly plant-based food in my life. When I go to restaurants I choose restaurants that have good veg options.
I've been reading a lot of predictions from people who are looking to understand what problems humanity will face 10-50 years out (and sometimes longer) in order to work in areas that will be instrumental for the future and wondering how accurate these predictions of the future are. The timeframe of predictions that are so far out means that only a tiny fraction of people making those kinds of predictions today have a track record so, if we want to evaluate which predictions are plausible, …
I really like going in the water and this beach is a great place for
building sand castles and boogie boarding. I also like trying to
float on top of big waves. I'm not very good at it. I only float on
the flat waves.
Here is my current take on decision theory: When making a decision after observing X, we should condition (or causally intervene) on statements like “My decision algorithm outputs Y after observing X.” Updating seems like a description of something you do when making good decisions in this way, not part of defining what a good … More Decision theory and dynamic inconsistency Your actual output depends on a lot more than just how quickly you finish a given programming task. Everything besides the literal coding depends deeply on the way you interact with the organization around you.
I love England. Especially because of the big castle called Buckingham
Palace. I got to see the outside there, but my mom showed me some
pictures of the inside. I love it there. But the outside doesn't look
very fancy to me. But I never knew why those people wear big bear skin
black poofy hats.
(Subsumed by: Timeless Decision Theory, EDT=CDT) People sometimes object to evidential decision theory by saying: “It seems like the distinction between correlation and causation is really important to making good decisions in practice. So how can a theory like EDT, with no role for causality, possibly be right?” Long-time readers probably know my answer, but … More What is causality to an evidential decision theorist?
I was walking around in London when I saw this gigantic building
shaped like an egg.
Then I walked around it a little and I saw these
pillars that had glass on one side, but one side didn't have glass.
There was kind of a hole so it was kind of like a case, and I wanted
to try and climb in. So I walked over and started to climb in, but I
was having trouble. I got my ankle in, but when I tried to get it out
it didn't work; it was stuck. I needed to try something different. I
took off my sh…
There are many big buildings here. A lot of them are skyscrapers. And,
there's lots of old buildings here. Like, buildings from long
ago. Like, ones that Romans built! One of them is even a castle. It's
pretty fun here, and it barely ever snows here. So there's always
pretty flowers here. And there's even palm trees.
Wave is a $1.7B company with 70 engineers1 whose product is a CRUD app that adds and subtracts numbers. In keeping with this, our architecture is a standard CRUD app architecture, a Python monolith on top of Postgres. Starting with a simple architecture and solving problems in simple ways where possible has allowed us to scale to this size while engineers mostly focus on work that delivers value to users.
Stackoverflow scaled up a monolith to good effect (2013 architecture / 2016 architecture), …
There's a cocktail party version of the efficient markets hypothesis I frequently hear that's basically, "markets enforce efficiency, so it's not possible that a company can have some major inefficiency and survive". We've previously discussed Marc Andreessen's quote that tech hiring can't be inefficient here and here:
Let's launch right into it. I think the critique that Silicon Valley companies are deliberately, systematically discriminatory is incorrect, an…
[Click to collapse / expand section on sports]
Here are some notes from talent scouts:
Recruit A:
... will be a real specimen with chance to have a Dave Parker body. Facially looks like Leon Wagner. Good body flexibility. Very large hands.
Recruit B:
Outstanding physical specimen – big athletic frame with broad shoulders and long, solid arms and leg. Good bounce in his step and above avg body control. Good strong face.
Recruit C:
Hi butt, longish arms & legs, leanish torso, young colt
[different sc… I’ve been interested in eating less meat, and possibly becoming vegetarian or vegan, for 15+ years. I reviewed some vegan substitutes a few years ago. I am not 100% vegan yet, but I’ve made a ton of progress in the last few months.
This was co-authored with Yao Yue
This is a collection of information on severe (SEV-0 or SEV-1, the most severe incident classifications) incidents at Twitter that were at least partially attributed to cache from the time Twitter started using its current incident tracking JIRA (2012) to date (2022), with one bonus incident from before 2012. Not including the bonus incident, there were 6 SEV-0s and 6 SEV-1s that were at least partially attributed to cache in the incident tracker, along with 38 … I recently got confused thinking about the following case: Calculator bet: I am offered the opportunity to bet on a mathematical statement X to which I initially assign 50% probability (perhaps X = 139926 is a quadratic residue modulo 314159). I have access to a calculator that is 99% reliable, i.e. it corrupts the answer … More EDT with updating double counts Being a “digital person” could be scary—if I don’t have control over the hardware I’m running on, then someone else could get my code and run tons of copies in horrible conditions. (See also: qntm’s Lena.) It would be great to guarantee digital people some control over their situation: 1. to control their local environment … More Secure homes for digital people
I love Nora. She is a really fun sister. I give her a hug and a kiss
each night. Nora is pretty much always nearby so I can go and cuddle
her. Unless she's nursing. Or sleeping. Or having her diaper
changed. Which is a lot of the time. But, overall, Nora is a really
really fun sister. She's also very silly, and she makes silly faces.
Nose / throat treatments for respiratory infections
What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?
Why Neighborhoods Should Have Speed Bumps
How major governments can help with the most important century
What AI companies can do today to help with the most important century
Don’t Over-Update On Others’ Failures
Jobs that can help with the most important century
Leaving Wave, joining Anthropic
How did we decide to have a kid?
Spreading messages to help with the most important century
Crying in museums
My Rainbow Kit
Phones
Why and how to write things on the Internet
Breastfeeding: might be nice, might be surprisingly terrible
Three reasons to cooperate
Staring into the abyss as a core life skill
Why I Decided To Buy A House
Be less scared of overconfidence
My Vegan Thanksgiving
Corncob Dolls
Light Switch
Childbirth location and safety
Practical Plant-Based Meal Planning for Groups
Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
On the Beach
Decision theory and dynamic inconsistency
10x (engineer, context) pairs
Buckingham Palace
What is causality to an evidential decision theorist?
How I Lost My Shoe
I Love England
In defense of simple architectures
Why is it so hard to buy things that work well?
Misidentifying talent
How to be vegan (if you’re me)
A decade of major cache incidents at Twitter
EDT with updating double counts
Secure homes for digital people
Nora