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What Percentage of People Are Bi?

More than half?

via Thing of Things February 26, 2024

How I build and run behavioral interviews

This is an adaptation of an internal doc I wrote for Wave. I used to think that behavioral interviews were basically useless, because it was too easy for candidates to bullshit them and too hard for me to tell what was a good answer. I’d end up grading every candidate as an “okay, I guess” because I was never sure what bar I should hold them to. I still think most behavioral interviews are like that, but after grinding out way too many of them, I now think it’s possible to escape that trap.

via February 25, 2024

Why Callout Posts Often Include Trivial Details

The most legible harm isn't the most serious harm

via Thing of Things February 21, 2024

On The Prosperity Gospel

things I find fascinating: religion, scams

via Thing of Things February 19, 2024

Diseconomies of scale in fraud, spam, support, and moderation

If I ask myself a question like "I'd like to buy an SD card; who do I trust to sell me a real SD card and not some fake, Amazon or my local Best Buy?", of course the answer is that I trust my local Best Buy1 more than Amazon, which is notorious for selling counterfeit SD cards. And if I ask who do I trust more, my local reputable electronics shop (Memory Express, B&H Photo, etc.), I trust my local reputable electronics shop more. Not only are they less likely to sell me a counte…

via Posts on February 18, 2024

Raising children on the eve of AI

How do we prepare them for what we're not prepared for? The post Raising children on the eve of AI appeared first on Otherwise.

via Otherwise February 15, 2024

Dating For People With Borderline Personality Disorder

I never know if my advice is cynical or not

via Thing of Things February 13, 2024

Insomnia Advice


via Thing of Things February 9, 2024

Why it's impossible to agree on what's allowed

On large platforms, it's impossible to have policies on things like moderation, spam, fraud, and sexual content that people agree on. David Turner made a simple game to illustrate how difficult this is even in a trivial case, No Vehicles in the Park. If you haven't played it yet, I recommend playing it now before continuing to read this document. The idea behind the site is that it's very difficult to get people to agree on what moderation rules should apply to a platform. Even if yo…

via Posts on February 7, 2024

Notes on Cruise's pedestrian accident

This is a set of notes on the Quinn Emanuel report on Cruise's handling of the 2023-10-02 accident where a Cruise autonomous vehicle (AV) hit a pedestrian, stopped, and then started moving again with the pedestrian stuck under the bottom of the AV, dragging the pedestrian 20 feet. After seeing some comments about this report, I read five stories on this report and then skimmed the report and my feeling is that the authors of four of the stories probably didn't read the report, and that …

via Posts on January 29, 2024

Why do people post on [bad platform] instead of [good platform]?

There's a class of comment you often see when someone makes a popular thread on Mastodon/Twitter/Threads/etc., that you also see on videos that's basically "Why make a Twitter thread? This would be better as a blog post" or "Why make a video? This would be better as a blog post". But, these comments are often stronger in form, such as: I can't read those tweets that span pages because the users puts 5 words in each reply. I find common internet completely stupid: Twit…

via Posts on January 25, 2024

Good job opportunities for helping with the most important century

I wrote ~2 years ago that it was hard to find concrete ways to help the most important century go well. That’s changing.

via Cold Takes January 18, 2024

Solve My Mini Puzzle Hunt

I designed a puzzle for family for Christmas! This was designed to be solved in-person, but blog readers can solve it too (mostly – some pieces weren’t particularly web-friendly). I also wrote my notes below about how I designed it and what I learned. But first:

via Home January 7, 2024

The sugar budget

A method of deciding how much sugar kids can have The post The sugar budget appeared first on Otherwise.

via Otherwise December 31, 2023

How bad are search results? Let's compare Google, Bing, Marginalia, Kagi, Mwmbl, and ChatGPT

In The birth & death of search engine optimization, Xe suggests Here's a fun experiment to try. Take an open source project such as yt-dlp and try to find it from a very generic term like "youtube downloader". You won't be able to find it because of all of the content farms that try to rank at the top for that term. Even though yt-dlp is probably actually what you want for a tool to download video from YouTube. More generally, most tech folks I'm connected to seem to think…

via Posts on December 30, 2023

“Sugar rush” in children seems to be confirmation bias

There's little evidence that sugar makes kids hyper. The post “Sugar rush” in children seems to be confirmation bias appeared first on Otherwise.

via Otherwise December 25, 2023

Ethics of adopting a meat-eating pet

Bringing another carnivore into the house The post Ethics of adopting a meat-eating pet appeared first on Otherwise.

via Otherwise December 7, 2023

What are the results of more parental supervision and less outdoor play?

Ups and downs for mental health and injury rates The post What are the results of more parental supervision and less outdoor play? appeared first on Otherwise.

via Otherwise November 24, 2023

My startup advice

I sat down for a conversation with Alex Long. He took notes and sent them to me, and it seemed worth lightly-editing the notes and posting. I’ve left it quite raw, more like a tweet thread than a proper blog post.

via Home October 23, 2023

A Big Problem With The Going To Bed Book

One day my dad was reading this book called the "Going to Bed Book" to my sister Nora. The book is basically about a bunch of animals who are getting ready for bed on a boat. They go down the stairs, take a bath, hang their towels on the wall, find their pajamas, brush their teeth, go up and exercise, then go down again and fall asleep. But I noticed there was a big problem: my whole life everyone has been telling me "don't exercise before bed". The reason you shouldn't exer…

via Lily Wise's Blog Posts September 18, 2023

Self-driving car bets

This month I lost a bunch of bets. Back in early 2016 I bet at even odds that self-driving ride sharing would be available in 10 US cities by July 2023. Then I made similar bets a dozen times because everyone disagreed with me. The first deployment to potentially meet our bar was Phoenix in … More Self-driving car bets

via The sideways view July 29, 2023


I first started playing fiddle when I was five, just around my birthday. I had really wanted a fiddle because I wanted to learn how to play it and my parents got me one for my birthday so I started taking lessons. Though after a couple of lessons I started to find it more and more boring and at the time I wasn't really prepared for my fingers to hurt when I did it, so I didn't really like it that much and also overall I think that probably starting from that age wasn't the best idea. …

via Lily Wise's Blog Posts July 13, 2023

Why altruists can’t have nice things

I posted this on the Effective Altruism forum as part of the EA Strategy Fortnight. I’m cross posting it here.

via Home July 1, 2023

Vegan nutrition notes

I just got comprehensive blood test results and it seems my nutritional numbers are in decent shape (vitamin D, B12, etc) after being vegan for over a year, which is a good sign that I’m probably doing most things okay. Also, I feel good, my weight hasn’t changed, and I can still build muscle (although not quickly; it seems I need to eat more in order to build muscle quickly, and I am not prioritizing that right now).

via Home June 2, 2023

Cycling Injuries Analysis in DC

I looked at a few years’ worth of data for DC (where I live) to try to figure out how risky cycling is here.

via Home May 19, 2023

Some mistakes I made as a new manager

the trough of zero dopamine • managing the wrong amount • procrastinating on hard questions • indefinitely deferring maintenance • angsting instead of asking

via April 23, 2023

Fixing a Tire

I noticed that there was a hole in one of the park toys at the park near my house, Lexington Park, specifically. It was one of those toy cars that babies scootch around in, and one of the front wheels was broken. It had a big hole in it, and there was a crack running almost all around it. I decided to go home and get my toolbelt to fix it. I decided that probably tape and cardboard would be the best materials because metal and wood and stuff wouldn't really keep the right shape. First I starte…

via Lily Wise's Blog Posts April 18, 2023

What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?

Early signs of catastrophic risk? Yes and no.

via Cold Takes February 28, 2023

Why Neighborhoods Should Have Speed Bumps

I have several reasons I think why neighborhoods should have speed bumps. First, speed bumps are very useful to stop cars from hitting people in the streets. Second, when construction workers installed speed bumps on the street in front of our house it was very useful to me because my parents decided to let me cross that street, and now I can go to the park and my friends house and a bunch of other places without my parents having to walk me there. There is a downside to speed bumps, which is that whe…

via Lily Wise's Blog Posts February 27, 2023

How major governments can help with the most important century

Governments could be crucial in the long run, but it's probably best to proceed with caution.

via Cold Takes February 24, 2023

What AI companies can do today to help with the most important century

Major AI companies can increase or reduce global catastrophic risks.

via Cold Takes February 20, 2023

Jobs that can help with the most important century

People are far better at their jobs than at anything else. Here are the best ways to help the most important century go well.

via Cold Takes February 10, 2023

Leaving Wave, joining Anthropic

love for Wave • why leave • where to • why there • what’s next

via February 1, 2023

My Rainbow Kit

For Christmas I got a really fun kit about rainbows. It had a rainbow catcher, a really cool necklace, a streamer thingy, and it also had a really really cool pinwheel, and it also had a bracelet and a pinata. Unfortunately the pinata didn't work out that well. I didn't make the bracelet yet. The pinata just didn't fall apart when we hit it. We had to take it apart with our hands to get it open. It even had a really really fun part. Actually, it wasn't really that fun. It did m…

via Anna Wise's Blog Posts January 5, 2023


I think that once a kid is in third grade they should be able to get a phone. I think that while sometimes parents might want kids not to have them at certain ages, phones can be quite useful at times. Tablets don't have GPS, they don't have WiFi when you're out of the house, but a phone does have all that stuff. Have you ever tried putting a tablet in your pocket? I don't think so! They definitely don't fit. But a phone will: they're tiny and portable, which is quite us…

via Lily Wise's Blog Posts January 5, 2023

Why and how to write things on the Internet

because you’ll have more awesome friendships • be consistent • suggested post ideas • setup advice • getting initial readers

via December 29, 2022

Three reasons to cooperate

In this post I’ll discuss three reasons to cooperate in a truly one-shot prisoner’s dilemma: Kindness makes common sense, but correlation and reciprocity are often lumped together under “weird acausal stuff.” I think they are worth distinguishing because they work quite differently. I’ll talk about details of correlation and reciprocity, and then argue that most … More Three reasons to cooperate

via The sideways view December 24, 2022

Staring into the abyss as a core life skill

thinking about scary things • examples from Wave • examples from elsewhere • finding a buddy • getting the timing right • a list of abyss questions

via December 22, 2022

Corncob Dolls

I went to a farm and at the farm I got to see a corncrib and the corn that had fell out of the corncrib that no one wanted I got to use my fingers to take off the corn kernels and once the cobs were empty I put them in a bag and then once I got back to the house I was staying in I ate dinner and I got to work with a few pencils some tape and some paper and some markers and I used some of the markers to make the eyes and mouth but I didn't want to add a nose so what I did was I made little pink s…

via Anna Wise's Blog Posts November 7, 2022

On the Beach

I really like going in the water and this beach is a great place for building sand castles and boogie boarding. I also like trying to float on top of big waves. I'm not very good at it. I only float on the flat waves.

via Anna Wise's Blog Posts July 12, 2022

Decision theory and dynamic inconsistency

Here is my current take on decision theory: When making a decision after observing X, we should condition (or causally intervene) on statements like “My decision algorithm outputs Y after observing X.” Updating seems like a description of something you do when making good decisions in this way, not part of defining what a good … More Decision theory and dynamic inconsistency

via The sideways view July 3, 2022

Buckingham Palace

I love England. Especially because of the big castle called Buckingham Palace. I got to see the outside there, but my mom showed me some pictures of the inside. I love it there. But the outside doesn't look very fancy to me. But I never knew why those people wear big bear skin black poofy hats.

via Anna Wise's Blog Posts April 25, 2022

What is causality to an evidential decision theorist?

(Subsumed by: Timeless Decision Theory, EDT=CDT) People sometimes object to evidential decision theory by saying: “It seems like the distinction between correlation and causation is really important to making good decisions in practice. So how can a theory like EDT, with no role for causality, possibly be right?” Long-time readers probably know my answer, but … More What is causality to an evidential decision theorist?

via The sideways view April 17, 2022

I Love England

There are many big buildings here. A lot of them are skyscrapers. And, there's lots of old buildings here. Like, buildings from long ago. Like, ones that Romans built! One of them is even a castle. It's pretty fun here, and it barely ever snows here. So there's always pretty flowers here. And there's even palm trees.

via Anna Wise's Blog Posts April 17, 2022

EDT with updating double counts

I recently got confused thinking about the following case: Calculator bet: I am offered the opportunity to bet on a mathematical statement X to which I initially assign 50% probability (perhaps X = 139926 is a quadratic residue modulo 314159). I have access to a calculator that is 99% reliable, i.e. it corrupts the answer … More EDT with updating double counts

via The sideways view October 12, 2021

via openring