Visualizing Prediction Inaccuracy

February 26th, 2012
mbtaplot, transit
A major goal of mbtaplot is to visualize bus predictions by converting timing information to locations on a map. One thing I've struggled with is how to represent information getting out of date: the longer since we last got a position update the less accurate our estimate is. I think I've got a good solution now, adding a line back from the prediction to the last reported location. The longer the tail, the less sure we are about the position:






The main thing I like about mbtaplot over nextbus or mbtainfo is that because it gives me more information I can second guess the predictions. The goal with this new feature is to intuitively convey more information about the trustworthiness of the information.

(At some point I want to figure out how to get something like this on my phone; the current version uses too much javascript for that.)

Comment via: google plus, facebook, substack

Recent posts on blogs I like:

Exercises in benchmarking and evals, part 7: DeepSWE, Senior SWE-Bench, napkin math, and winter tires

This is part of a series of exercises on benchmarking, evals, and experimental design (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)1. We're going to look at three questions, which are presented before the answers to give you time to think about the questions before seeing the a…

via Posts on July 23, 2026

Donation recommendations for effective altruists (July 2026)

My recommendation for donors who are American citizens or permanent residents is that they donate directly to high-value political candidates.

via Thing of Things July 22, 2026

Let's Taboo the V-Word

Read this post on Substack.

via Home July 12, 2026

more     (via openring)