Visualizing Prediction Inaccuracy

February 26th, 2012
mbtaplot, transit
A major goal of mbtaplot is to visualize bus predictions by converting timing information to locations on a map. One thing I've struggled with is how to represent information getting out of date: the longer since we last got a position update the less accurate our estimate is. I think I've got a good solution now, adding a line back from the prediction to the last reported location. The longer the tail, the less sure we are about the position:






The main thing I like about mbtaplot over nextbus or mbtainfo is that because it gives me more information I can second guess the predictions. The goal with this new feature is to intuitively convey more information about the trustworthiness of the information.

(At some point I want to figure out how to get something like this on my phone; the current version uses too much javascript for that.)

Comment via: google plus, facebook, substack

Recent posts on blogs I like:

AI incompetence often comes from misalignment

Sometimes I see people say “I’m not worried about AI risk because AIs are really bad at things.” I think this is a misunderstanding.

via Thing of Things April 27, 2026

You should try contra dancing

a story of middle school Ben • a not-very-illuminating description of the mechanics • flow, joy, and community • the antidote to the rest of life • how to try contra

via benkuhn.net April 24, 2026

On AI writing in 2026

I use AI to write a little bit: I ask it for high level feedback on blog post drafts, make mechanical edits, and sometimes use it to brainstorm options for wording at a paragraph level. It’s unusual that I accept its wording or changes without modificatio…

via Home April 16, 2026

more     (via openring)