• Posts
  • RSS
  • ◂◂RSS
  • Contact

  • Publication Bias

    April 17th, 2012
    science
    If I correctly predicted the overall direction of the stock market (or a specific stock) five days in a row, that would be pretty good evidence that I've got my finger on the market's pulse. Getting that right with random guessing would only happen about once every 32 (2 to the 5th) times, so isn't this p=0.031? Wouldn't you let me manage your money, winking at my "past performance is no guarantee of future results" disclaimer?

    Let's say I start out with 32 people. I pick a stock. I tell half of them it will go up, the other half it will go down. Tomorrow 16 people will have seen me be right, 16 will have seen me be wrong. I give up on the second half and pick a second stock for day two. Of the 16 who have never seen me be wrong I tell 8 it will go up and 8 it will go down. I repeat this until day six when I have one person who has seen me be right the past five days.

    This is an illegal con, but something similar happens in studies. I claim "Foobaritol lowers blood pressure in tall people", but maybe I ran studies on several different drugs, only publishing the one with the strongest results. How do you know I didn't run the numbers on several ways different ways of dividing up my study participants (age, gender, location, race, height, ...) and am able to make my claim about tall people only because I sneakily neglected to make a Bonferroni correction?

    What if we required preregistration as a condition for IRB approval?

    Comment via: google plus, facebook

    Recent posts on blogs I like:

    Moral aesthetics

    “Doing good” differs by subculture The post Moral aesthetics appeared first on Otherwise.

    via Otherwise September 29, 2022

    Futurist prediction methods and accuracy

    I've been reading a lot of predictions from people who are looking to understand what problems humanity will face 10-50 years out (and sometimes longer) in order to work in areas that will be instrumental for the future and wondering how accurate thes…

    via Posts on September 12, 2022

    On the Beach

    I really like going in the water and this beach is a great place for building sand castles and boogie boarding. I also like trying to float on top of big waves. I'm not very good at it. I only float on the flat waves.

    via Anna Wise's Blog Posts July 12, 2022

    more     (via openring)


  • Posts
  • RSS
  • ◂◂RSS
  • Contact