• Posts
  • RSS
  • ◂◂RSS
  • Contact

  • Stock Delta as a Medium?

    June 19th, 2012
    probability  [html]
    June 4th was the 24th anniversary of the 1989 Chinese crackdown on the Tiananmen Square protests. The Chinese stock market fell 64.89 points (6/4/89), making a lot of work for the censors. What I'm curious about, however, is how likely this was intentional.

    On it's face this sounds unlikely enough to be intentional, but how unlikely is it? Over the last 200 days, Google Finance says the minimum has been -91.85 while the maximum has been 73.68. Naively taking these to be the bounds of possibility and assuming a uniform distribution (good enough for estimating) we get odds of 1 in 16553 of getting -64.89.

    This isn't the only outcome that would look like June 4th 1989, however. There's also 64.89, ±46.89, ±89.46, and ±89.64. Having eight special numbers increases our odds by a factor of eight: 1 in 2069. Then there are two other Chinese stock markets, bringing our odds to 1 in 690. The stock market has been running for 21 june 4ths, any of which could have done this, bringing the odds down to 1 in 33.

    When we consider how many other significant numbers there are in daily life, any of which could have come out to something readable as June 4th 1989, and especially when we add in the cost of manipulating this large a market, it sounds like this was a coincidence.

    Comment via: google plus, facebook

    Recent posts on blogs I like:

    Austerity is Inefficient

    Working on an emergency timetable for regional rail has made it clear how an environment of austerity requires tradeoffs that reduce efficiency. I already talked about how the Swiss electronics before concrete slogan is not about not spending money but ab…

    via Pedestrian Observations February 27, 2021

    Fireside Friday, February 26, 2021

    Fireside this week, but next week we are diving into our long awaited series on pre-modern textile production, though we will be particularly focused on the most important clothing fibers in the Mediterranean world, wool and linen (rather than, say, silk …

    via A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry February 26, 2021

    The Troubling Ethics of Writing (A Speech from Ancient Sumer)

    (Translated from a transcript of an ancient Sumerian speech by Uruk's most well-respected Scriptological Ethicist) Writing is a profoundly dangerous technology: Access to writing was initially, and still remains, uneven. What's worse, the rich are m…

    via BLOG - Cullen O'Keefe February 15, 2021

    more     (via openring)


  • Posts
  • RSS
  • ◂◂RSS
  • Contact