{"items": [{"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412", "anchor": "fb-831660578412", "service": "fb", "text": "You are not even considering whether or not you will make an error in judgment when analyzing these charities. Even if you found a meta-charity that you felt was better than Against Malaria, it could well be a misevaluation on your part.", "timestamp": "1481639419"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831660693182", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831660693182", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Judgement errors by everyone involved are always a possibility, and the risk of them should generally push us towards things that are simpler to think about, better understood, and that other people are also thinking about.", "timestamp": "1481639554"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831660807952", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831660807952", "service": "fb", "text": "→ It's also relatively likely that even if I could put in a lot of time into evaluation I would miss important things; full time people at GiveWell, foundations, etc miss things so I wouldn't expect to do better", "timestamp": "1481639633"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831661371822", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831661371822", "service": "fb", "text": "→ The baseline rate of charities that are better than Against Malaria is really low, so any kind of significant error rate from you when evaluating the charities is going to result in a lot of false positives.", "timestamp": "1481639950"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831661456652", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831661456652", "service": "fb", "text": "→ On the other hand, many metacharities focused on the EA movement pretty directly result in more donations to the AMF", "timestamp": "1481640005"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831661785992", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831661785992", "service": "fb", "text": "→ For example Raising for Effective Giving [1]. Actually, I'd be very interested if you have any thoughts on REG, now that I'm thinking about metacharities while talking to you!
[1] https://reg-charity.org/", "timestamp": "1481640190"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831667773992", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831667773992", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Haha, I am so out of the scene that I had not heard of this. It's true that winning poker players have a fair amount of cash and are given to analytical thinking. But there are limits to how many poker players are going to sign on, and indeed this charity had its best fundraising quarter in its very first quarter in existence. It is not growing year-on-year. It's not clear to me that additional staff are going to produce significant additional revenue.
However, I would like to have dinner with these people.", "timestamp": "1481642029"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831669111312", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831669111312", "service": "fb", "text": "→ The charitable-giving-from-poker-players space is also crowded: http://allinforonedrop.com/en/", "timestamp": "1481642469"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831674026462", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831674026462", "service": "fb", "text": "→ If we conservatively assume that the board of directors are all giving 5% to the foundation, looking at their recorded tournament results (which are not 100% complete), that accounts for something like 20% of all money given to the foundation so far.", "timestamp": "1481643349"}, {"author": "Elizabeth", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831660578412&reply_comment_id=831715178992", "anchor": "fb-831660578412_831715178992", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff My understanding is that REG is quite effective and I was really impressed by their future plans, but I am uncomfortable with them because they are part of EAF, which is negative utilitarian. This isn't really a problem now, I think money they raise is mostly going to good places, but I worry about their future plans.", "timestamp": "1481662157"}, {"author": "Neela", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831678482532", "anchor": "fb-831678482532", "service": "fb", "text": "Full disclosure: I volunteer at The Life You Can Save. I think meta-charities are best placed to address specific groups of the vast target audience out there who are vaguely interested in the concept of effective giving and now want to know where they should give. Their current source is probably something like Charity Navigator. They may be satisficers not maximizers in the good they want to do. So, in marketing terms they would be the \"light\" users of EA/EG. Whether or not the EA movement should aggressively target these light users (and therefore whether medium sized EA donors should commit money to meta-charities that target them) really depends on how the movement will grow. If the idea is to build a mass movement, then getting high penetration with lower rates of donation would be important so all the standard (but honest and high quality) tactics of mass marketing would be needed and donors could fund these kinds of meta-charities that reach out to different audiences. If , on the other hand, as I think many here argue, the way to build the movement is slowly expand the niche, then it is more of a long sales-cycle to high net worth donors in which case other meta-charities may be funded. I think resources would get diluted if you try and do both so it's important to have a strategy. But yes, I agree with you, it would be interesting to see what different meta-charities do, their mission, their target audience and which ones medium sized EA donors should fund to see the movement grow.", "timestamp": "1481644441"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831691276892", "anchor": "fb-831691276892", "service": "fb", "text": "How big of a role does signaling play into where you decide to donate? That is, does the fact that you have a significant leadership role within the EA movement make it more important or valuable that you donate to meta-charities?", "timestamp": "1481650385"}, {"author": "Julia", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831691276892&reply_comment_id=831701965472", "anchor": "fb-831691276892_831701965472", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I actually think more about setting an example for people relatively new to the idea of effective giving. That makes me lean toward actions we would recommend to someone new (like giving based on GiveWell's recommendations) rather than something that requires complicated decisions or special knowledge.", "timestamp": "1481655290"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831712938482", "anchor": "fb-831712938482", "service": "fb", "text": "Could you save to donate later after you feel like you've thought about it enough?", "timestamp": "1481660829"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831712938482&reply_comment_id=831725124062", "anchor": "fb-831712938482_831725124062", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Using a donor advised fund to delay the decision is an option, but I'm not sure why I should expect things to be any different next year. (In fact I have reasons to expect it to be worse.)", "timestamp": "1481664878"}, {"author": "Elizabeth", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831756715752", "anchor": "fb-831756715752", "service": "fb", "text": "Can I encourage you to note your spouse works for a metacharity, as part of good norm setting?", "timestamp": "1481676057"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831756715752&reply_comment_id=831760064042", "anchor": "fb-831756715752_831760064042", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Yes: Julia works for CEA", "timestamp": "1481677851"}, {"author": "Elizabeth", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831756715752&reply_comment_id=831760642882", "anchor": "fb-831756715752_831760642882", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I meant in the original entry", "timestamp": "1481678147"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831756715752&reply_comment_id=831768427282", "anchor": "fb-831756715752_831768427282", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Also: Julia is on GiveWell's board
(I'll add a disclosure to the post when I get to my laptop; very hard to edit from my phone.)", "timestamp": "1481680642"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831756715752&reply_comment_id=831772299522", "anchor": "fb-831756715752_831772299522", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Disclosure added", "timestamp": "1481682900"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831757658862", "anchor": "fb-831757658862", "service": "fb", "text": "I mean, why stop there? It seems like, given your confusion, you should be paying someone to examine which of the meta charities is most effective, so you should fund a metametacharity. But then you would need to know whether Givewell or the metametacharity is more effective at evaluating the metacharities so you would need a metametametacharity.", "timestamp": "1481676686"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831757973232", "anchor": "fb-831757973232", "service": "fb", "text": "It's charities all the way down!", "timestamp": "1481676916"}, {"author": "David German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1481677676474", "service": "gp", "text": "Are there RCTs on any metacharity intervention, or credible plans to run such a trial? It seems odd to contemplate funding an effective altruism activity unless there's evidence of effectiveness.", "timestamp": 1481677676}, {"author": "Ben", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831763372412", "anchor": "fb-831763372412", "service": "fb", "text": "One option is for new charities to be funded by people who are very familiar with the idea and founder, and for external donors to donate on the basis of track record. This is basically the approach I followed when evaluating AI Xrisk orgs.", "timestamp": "1481678804"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831763372412&reply_comment_id=831772748622", "anchor": "fb-831763372412_831772748622", "service": "fb", "text": "→ How do you determine a track record for a charity that is trying to stop an existential risk?", "timestamp": "1481683212"}, {"author": "Ben", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831763372412&reply_comment_id=831772878362", "anchor": "fb-831763372412_831772878362", "service": "fb", "text": "→ http://effective-altruism.com/.../2017_ai_risk_literature...", "timestamp": "1481683244"}, {"author": "Owen", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/831659700172?comment_id=831763372412&reply_comment_id=831836720422", "anchor": "fb-831763372412_831836720422", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I basically endorse this approach, and wrote something about the reasons in http://effective-altruism.com/.../should_effective.../", "timestamp": "1481709065"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/103013777355236494008", "anchor": "gp-1481682762003", "service": "gp", "text": "@David German\n The sorts of things metacharities are doing are generally not a good fit for RCTs. For example, how would you set up an RCT evaluate GiveWell? Or how would you use an RCT to evaluate the efforts of a metacharity that tries to keep the ideas behind the EA movement from getting diluted as it grows?\n
\n
\nNot being able to get good evidence definitely makes me less optimistic about funding this sort of organization, but on the other hand there's a potential for much larger benefit which may or may not be enough to counterbalance that.", "timestamp": 1481682762}, {"author": "David German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1481683863549", "service": "gp", "text": "Well, exactly. If the rationale for giving isn't evidence-based, what's the difference between EA and any other kind of charity?\n
\n
\nI do give some to GiveWell, in payment for the education they give me. I don't know whether it does good on the margin or not.", "timestamp": 1481683863}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/103013777355236494008", "anchor": "gp-1481750174297", "service": "gp", "text": "@David German\n\u200b Strength of evidence matters, but it's not the only thing that matters. What we actually care about is having a large (positive) impact, and things like RCTs are useful only in that they make this more likely.", "timestamp": 1481750174}, {"author": "David German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1481771957481", "service": "gp", "text": "> What we actually care about is having a large (positive) impact...\n
\n
\nThat may not be totally uncontroversial, but I think most people giving to charity would agree. Consider the arguments people make for supporting a local food pantry or homeless shelter. Beliefs about effectiveness are a major factor.\n
\n
\nThat's why I feel like measurement is a necessary principle, not just a means to an end. There is a continuum from weak to strong measured effectiveness, and a continuum from poor guesses to good guesses about effectiveness, but they're not the same continuum.", "timestamp": 1481771957}]}