{"items": [{"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769293422692", "anchor": "fb-769293422692", "service": "fb", "text": "Largely truth, but JK Rowling is a nice counterexample.", "timestamp": "1454213214"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769293422692&reply_comment_id=769366371502", "anchor": "fb-769293422692_769366371502", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Her case is one where it worked out, but the question is whether her strategy is what people should follow in her situation. A lottery winner is not a counterexample to \"don't play the lottery\".", "timestamp": "1454270826"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769293422692&reply_comment_id=769406725632", "anchor": "fb-769293422692_769406725632", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I think you missed my point. She had an inexperienced agent, when an experienced agent would not have taken her on, and he found an inexperienced publisher -- when an experienced publisher would not have taken her on. The Gatekeepers were wrong; it was dumb luck that she found people who were willing to work with her. It's not that latter bit of good luck that I'm referring to, but the fact that the Gatekeepers were the ones with a biased perspective in this case. (like Hollywood, making movie after moving following the same model as the last big success, publishing likes to follow a successful banjo act with more banjo acts).
A case could be made that she had such breakout success precisely *because* she was bucking the trend -- that is, not *only* was HP a *good* book, but there was nothing remotely like it available at the time due to the actions of the Gatekeepers.", "timestamp": "1454294470"}, {"author": "Cortland", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769297788942", "anchor": "fb-769297788942", "service": "fb", "text": "In physics, the top ten schools attract better students, but the quality difference in faculty is a lot smaller. While many of these faculty come from the top ten schools and there is a huge benefit from having top tier peers, individuals can have a great time learning at schools ranked well outside the top ten. I did for a while. Sadly I'm kind of defensive about quitting grad school.", "timestamp": "1454216940"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1454221908"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769303223052&reply_comment_id=769336775812", "anchor": "fb-769303223052_769336775812", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Yes, situations where evaluators are discriminating are another case where you should put (potentially much) less weight on their judgements.
(Though in the specific case of VC, if there's a lot of discrimination based on things that are irrelevant to the success of the companies then there's also a lot of money to be made by VCs that specifically try to avoid this.)", "timestamp": "1454251957"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1454257784"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769303223052&reply_comment_id=769365937372", "anchor": "fb-769303223052_769365937372", "service": "fb", "text": "→ (I'm not saying \"that can't happen because econ predicts so\" but instead \"if you think that's having a large effect then you also know a way to make a lot of money\".)", "timestamp": "1454270571"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769303223052&reply_comment_id=769387923312", "anchor": "fb-769303223052_769387923312", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff, that is not necessarily true. Most proposals are worthless. Even if you have fewer false negatives than the biased gatekeepers it will be hard to match them in avoiding false positives, which they are presumably very good at.", "timestamp": "1454282164"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/769291576392?comment_id=769387524112", "anchor": "fb-769387524112", "service": "fb", "text": "Along the lines of what Elliot is saying, one wonders how many cases of gatekeeper failure involve women or minorities.", "timestamp": "1454281947"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1454286258"}]}