{"items": [{"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/112947709146257842066", "anchor": "gp-1375997532205", "service": "gp", "text": "\"Given the choice between $50 now and $100 in a month many people will take the $50 now.\"\n<br>\n<br>\nI want to see a citation for that, I don't think you're wrong but it's surprising enough that it probably shouldn't be stated as fact.", "timestamp": 1375997532}, {"author": "Arthur", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623574479622", "anchor": "fb-623574479622", "service": "fb", "text": "The question of whether my future self actually is me and whether I really do owe my future self anything is an open philosophical question, though, and not one with as pat an answer as Western civilization thinks. (\"Future time orientation\" is associated with more money and \"success\" but not with more happiness compared to \"present time orientation\" -- many philosophers have come to the conclusion that we are in fact only actually happy in moments of pure present time orientation.)", "timestamp": "1376004440"}, {"author": "Vivian", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623579185192", "anchor": "fb-623579185192", "service": "fb", "text": "Was it you or someone else talking about $50 now / $100 in a month recently?  They noted that in some cultural contexts, $50 now is the economically logical choice because their people are regularly promised things that are, later, not delivered.", "timestamp": "1376007827"}, {"author": "Arthur", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623580727102", "anchor": "fb-623580727102", "service": "fb", "text": "Yes, it's much like people saying women did worse in the workplace simply because they're less willing to negotiate, before studies demonstrated that this reluctance is a perfectly rational response to the fact that men punish women who try to negotiate.", "timestamp": "1376008775"}, {"author": "Jeff&nbsp;Kaufman", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/103013777355236494008", "anchor": "gp-1376012612645", "service": "gp", "text": "@Todd\n\u00a0Just now, talking to my sister who does early intervention several poor neighborhoods in the Boston area, she estimates 75% of the families would take the $50 now over $100 in a month. \u00a0\"They have bills to pay, diapers are expensive, and they can't wait a month.\"", "timestamp": 1376012612}, {"author": "Jeff&nbsp;Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623586869792", "anchor": "fb-623586869792", "service": "fb", "text": "@Isaac: if I offer you $50 now vs $100 in a month then depending on your background it could be totally reasonable for you to doubt that you'd really get the $100.  But with something like payday loans people are trading their future money for (less of) someone else's current money, and loan sharks are notoriously \"good\" at following up and getting paid.", "timestamp": "1376012965"}, {"author": "David&nbsp;Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623601111252", "anchor": "fb-623601111252", "service": "fb", "text": "They really could need the $50 now, right? (As you mentioned your sister saying in the G+ thread.)", "timestamp": "1376020354"}, {"author": "Arthur", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623603386692", "anchor": "fb-623603386692", "service": "fb", "text": "I think if you live with an unpredictable future long enough you stop trying to predict it. In the most extreme case, if I think I might not survive at all to next month, then trading $50 for any amount of money next month is stupid.", "timestamp": "1376022014"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623609529382", "anchor": "fb-623609529382", "service": "fb", "text": "\"many philosophers have come to the conclusion that we are in fact only actually happy in moments of pure present time orientation\"<br><br>Do these moments only ever arise without any planning/forethought? If not, I'm skeptical that it really demonstrates what you claim. If I make plans spend time with friends every Friday, and then have a ton of 'in-the-moment' fun during those get-togethers, surely I did some work on behalf of my future self that paid off", "timestamp": "1376026331"}, {"author": "Jeff&nbsp;Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623627628112", "anchor": "fb-623627628112", "service": "fb", "text": "@Arthur: It sounds like you're interpreting me as saying \"poor people are dumb\" and you're responding with something like \"this is a natural human response to sucky circumstances\".  But I agree with you!  That's why I'm interested in potential regulatory systems that would limit the ability of businesses to exploit this flaw in our preference system.", "timestamp": "1376046110"}, {"author": "Jeff&nbsp;Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/623560552532?comment_id=623627702962", "anchor": "fb-623627702962", "service": "fb", "text": "@David: \"They really could need the $50 now, right?\"<br><br>The problem is that people consistently overestimate how much they need the money now compared to how much they'll need money next month.", "timestamp": "1376046262"}, {"author": "David&nbsp;German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1376051041461", "service": "gp", "text": "@Jeff&nbsp;Kaufman\n\u00a0OK, but that reasoning sounds consistent with rapid exponential discounting. \u00a0To prove hyperbolic discounting, these same families would need to prefer, say, $175 in two months to $100 in one month.", "timestamp": 1376051041}, {"author": "David&nbsp;German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1376051593820", "service": "gp", "text": "Also, I think \n@Lucas\n\u00a0hits on a key question. \u00a0Exchanging present for future rewards requires confidence in somebody's word or in the rule of law. \u00a0Without that trust, hyperbolic discounting is rational.", "timestamp": 1376051593}, {"author": "Jeff&nbsp;Kaufman", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/103013777355236494008", "anchor": "gp-1376055205735", "service": "gp", "text": "@David&nbsp;German\n\u00a0\"that reasoning sounds consistent with rapid exponential discounting\"\n<br>\n<br>\nExponential would mean preferring $50 now to $100 in a month would also imply preferring $50 in a month to $100 in two months, which is less common.", "timestamp": 1376055205}, {"author": "Jeff&nbsp;Kaufman", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/103013777355236494008", "anchor": "gp-1376055577768", "service": "gp", "text": "@Lucas\n\u00a0\"how do I know that you'll still be around next month and still be willing to give me the $100 you promised?\"\n<br>\n<br>\nRight, but see my response to Isaac:\u00a0\nhttp://www.jefftk.com/p/avoiding-hyperbolic-discounting#fb-623560552532_783434", "timestamp": 1376055577}, {"author": "David&nbsp;German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1376056994483", "service": "gp", "text": "\"would also imply preferring $50 in a month to $100 in two months, which is less common.\"\n<br>\n<br>\nCitation needed again? \u00a0If the premise is that the $50 is needed ASAP to pay bills, turning the electricity back on after one month seems much better than turning it back on after two months with $50 to spare.", "timestamp": 1376056994}, {"author": "Bryce", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/110073329443149494347", "anchor": "gp-1376070356351", "service": "gp", "text": "A good explanation of hyperbolic discounting, it's implications, and evidence supporting it is here:\u00a0\nhttp://economics.mit.edu/files/328\n. That paper is also a very good starting point to move either forward or backward in the citation graph to understand respectively the current state of behavioral economics research on time preferences, or the origin of the hyperbolic discounting model.", "timestamp": 1376070356}, {"author": "Bryce", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/110073329443149494347", "anchor": "gp-1376070858570", "service": "gp", "text": "This problem is also known as (or closely related to) akrasia. People often recognize the inconsistency between preferences over today/tomorrow and 365/366 days from now, yet continue to behave according to them. A good discussion of this general problem from an academic sibling of mine who now runs a startup with the goal of combatting akrasia can be found here:\u00a0\nhttp://blog.beeminder.com/akrasia/\n.", "timestamp": 1376070858}]}