{"items": [{"author": "Brian", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632461854252", "anchor": "fb-632461854252", "service": "fb", "text": "$8K/year * 40 years * 2 parents * taxes to give ~$500K doesn't discount for time value of money. That said, maybe the original ~$500K cost estimate isn't discounted either?", "timestamp": "1382444713"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632461924112", "anchor": "fb-632461924112", "service": "fb", "text": "@Brian: neither are cost discounted, but you're right I'm doing it over two different time horizons (20 years for the spending, 40 for the earning). I'll change the number to 16k and fix that.", "timestamp": "1382444796"}, {"author": "Gordon", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632462218522", "anchor": "fb-632462218522", "service": "fb", "text": "Good read. What's the appeal of having kids? Having mini-yous running around and growing up and seeing the progress? What about adopting kids? Or is that not the same because they aren't your offspring?", "timestamp": "1382445239"}, {"author": "Brian", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632462273412", "anchor": "fb-632462273412", "service": "fb", "text": "Not everyone catches the fever, but some do.
http://healthland.time.com/.../baby-fever-the-desire-to.../", "timestamp": "1382445438"}, {"author": "Brad", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/116032343632043704302", "anchor": "gp-1382447936728", "service": "gp", "text": "I do think there are certain decisions that shouldn't be based on financial consequences and opportunity costs, even if those consequences and costs are potentially large. The decision to have children is largely an emotional and instinctive one, and doesn't have to be rational. I think it's fine to analyze the potential opportunities and opportunity costs associated with having kids, but I personally wouldn't reduce it to a cost-benefit decision. \u00a0", "timestamp": 1382447936}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632465392162", "anchor": "fb-632465392162", "service": "fb", "text": "http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=3106", "timestamp": "1382448789"}, {"author": "Paul", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632466375192", "anchor": "fb-632466375192", "service": "fb", "text": "So you'd leave the raising of children to the impoverished and uneducated. That would pretty much stop human progress by almost any measure. What is your underlying goal?", "timestamp": "1382449794"}, {"author": "Brian", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632466664612", "anchor": "fb-632466664612", "service": "fb", "text": "The margin is different from the total. Right now, on the margin, an altruist not having kids can make a net improvement to poverty and education by other means. In total, if every wealthier/educated family did that at once, the result wouldn't be so good. (Or maybe it would if conditions got good enough fast enough.)", "timestamp": "1382450106"}, {"author": "Melissa", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632466894152", "anchor": "fb-632466894152", "service": "fb", "text": "I went through a lot of this inside my own head, years ago, which may be why I was 44 when I finally had a child. :)", "timestamp": "1382450343"}, {"author": "Ron", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632478046802", "anchor": "fb-632478046802", "service": "fb", "text": "The fundamental question most don't ask: Why do people have kids at all?
The tricky part: coming up with an answer than isn't selfish, when you factor in things like adoption or charity.", "timestamp": "1382459046"}, {"author": "Nora", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632509648472", "anchor": "fb-632509648472", "service": "fb", "text": "That's interesting, Ron. My mom and I have a recurring argument in which she accuses me of being selfish for *not* wanting to have kids.", "timestamp": "1382479947"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632529882922", "anchor": "fb-632529882922", "service": "fb", "text": "@Ron: \"The tricky part: coming up with an answer than isn't selfish, when you factor in things like adoption or charity.\"
Why do you need to end up with an answer that isn't selfish? I want to have kids, but I don't think it's a particularly efficient way to go about altruism. I just think I would prefer that life to one where Julia and I continue without them.", "timestamp": "1382491536"}, {"author": "Melissa", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632536429802", "anchor": "fb-632536429802", "service": "fb", "text": "Ron- that question has been debated in billions of ways, by as many people. Everyone who wants them has their own set of reasons, just as everyone who doesn't want them has their own set of reasons, and each set is compelling for the person who has them. For me, I didn't want them for a long time, for a whole host of (I thought) logically thought out reasons. And then one day, I changed my mind, again for what I thought were logically thought out reasons.
But if I'm really being honest, I didn't want them for a long time because I was worried that all kids would end up having my childhood; and at some point I became reasonably convinced that although my parents had done the best they could, I was probably in a position to do a better job of helping my kid(s) have a better childhood. Once I'd recovered enough from the whole thing, I was no longer anti-kids and allowed myself to explore being pro-kids. By the time I got to that point, I was in my late 30s, and so here I am: 47, and mom to a fabulous 3 year old.", "timestamp": "1382493429"}, {"author": "Ben", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632617257822", "anchor": "fb-632617257822", "service": "fb", "text": "Just throwing in the mix: I made the point about a short term investment for a long term gain in one of my philosophy classes: for example, by spending $250k on my college now, I'll make enough money to give $500k to charity, so that makes more sense than giving $250k now. The point was made, which I think is very valid, that you must take into account what is lost in the interim. If right now there is someone who I can save by giving that $250k to them, but they will be dead by the time I'm able to give them $500k, then I should give it to them now, or else my investment is useless. Just an argument to consider. Also, thanks for pointing out the non-monetary externalities of an economic analysis (Happiness, Fairness, etc). It's something that is rarely included, and can alter the shape of many debates.", "timestamp": "1382507740"}, {"author": "Ron", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632618031272", "anchor": "fb-632618031272", "service": "fb", "text": "Jeff - \"Why do you need to end up with an answer that isn't selfish?\"
Because that's the topic of the article?
Melissa - I actually disagree - Obviously billions of people have considered having kids, but I don't think billions have wrestled with qualifying the ethics of their reasons.", "timestamp": "1382509118"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632627452392", "anchor": "fb-632627452392", "service": "fb", "text": "@Ben: \"you must take into account what is lost in the interim\"
I agree, you have to consider that your money might be able to do more good if donated now than if invested and donated later. This isn't particular to college; it's actually pretty general. It's a \"discount rate\": how many dollars in X years is equivalent to one dollar today? To determine whether you should donate now or later you should compare the rate of return of the best investment you can find to your discount rate. For most people the best investment opportunity open to them is the stock market which has relatively low inflation-adjusted returns, at around 4% per year.
For a college student spending $250k to get a $1M increase in donations over the next 40 years, whether it's worth it depends on the discount rate. At a 4% discount rate the value of that $1M spread evenly over 40 years starting 4 years in the future is 430k, which being higher than 250k is worth it and shows you do better than putting your college money in the stock market. At a 7% discount rate the two are equivalent, and above college loses out.
But what's the right discount rate? I'm not sure.
Another important question is whether you really could just donate that $250k right now. For people paying for their college with loans you generally can't just take out a loan to donate the money, even if your discount rate is higher than the loan's interest rate.", "timestamp": "1382530214"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632627766762", "anchor": "fb-632627766762", "service": "fb", "text": "@Ron: \"Because that's the topic of the article?\"
Both articles (mine and the one I'm responding to) conclude that having a child isn't justified on altruistic grounds. Rachels argues that this is enough to say having a child is immoral, while I don't extend the argument that far.", "timestamp": "1382530644"}, {"author": "Adam Yie", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/114873051319510815414", "anchor": "gp-1382533511599", "service": "gp", "text": "an \"increase awesomeness\" charity could get you much more awesomeness per dollar than having kids\n
\n
\nExamples please?", "timestamp": 1382533511}, {"author": "Melissa", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/632461060842?comment_id=632642452332", "anchor": "fb-632642452332", "service": "fb", "text": "I don't think that billions of people have wrestled with their ethics or their inner psychologies on this subject, either -- I know I'm an odd duck in this regard. But I do think many (obviously not all!) of them at least thought about why they were or were not having kids. Maybe deep thoughts, maybe not, but in cases other than unintentional pregnancies, there will have been some thought that took place, some consideration that action A may produce result B, and how do I/we feel about that.", "timestamp": "1382544770"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/103013777355236494008", "anchor": "gp-1382556575673", "service": "gp", "text": "@Adam Yie\n\u00a0I'm actually not all that clear on what the awesomeness/suck distinction is. \u00a0If I go blind that's suck, but if I get surgery and can see again is that awesomeness? \u00a0If so, then preventative charities decrease suck while reactive charities increase awesomeness, which is weird. \u00a0Or maybe suck vs awesomeness is relative to some state where all your basic needs are met? \u00a0Improving my live is increasing awesomeness while improving the life of someone who doesn't have a reliable food supply is decreasing suck? \u00a0That's weird too.\n
\n
\nI wrote that charities could do better than having kids because I was confident that if I were to understand their distinction I could identify particular charities, though I'm not actually confident that there's a good distinction to be made.", "timestamp": 1382556575}]}