{"items": [{"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640982703402", "anchor": "fb-640982703402", "service": "fb", "text": "I often take a hedged bet, but I like this reframing too.

Before GPS, Dave used this with me when we were lost: \"We're lost, dave.\" \"OK, tell me which way to go\" \"I think we should go left\" *Dave turns right* \"WTF Dave!\" \"This way, if you're right, then you get to say I told you so, and if you're wrong, at least we are going the right direction\"", "timestamp": "1386874646"}, {"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640982848112", "anchor": "fb-640982848112", "service": "fb", "text": "Jeff, you've copy-pasted your table too much, both rows say Sox win.", "timestamp": "1386874794"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640982907992", "anchor": "fb-640982907992", "service": "fb", "text": "@Danner: fixed; thanks!", "timestamp": "1386874828"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640983042722", "anchor": "fb-640983042722", "service": "fb", "text": "@Danner: for this to be good navigation practice \"Danner thinks we should X\" needs to be meaningless. Or anticorrelated with truth.", "timestamp": "1386874934"}, {"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640983297212", "anchor": "fb-640983297212", "service": "fb", "text": "Well, Jeff, it only came up when we both didn't really have a good idea where to go, so we only had instinctual pathfinding to go on. That's the \"When we were lost\" part. So yes, what I thought was as good as pure chance at that point, even if I didn't want to admit it.", "timestamp": "1386875117"}, {"author": "Mark", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640985842112", "anchor": "fb-640985842112", "service": "fb", "text": "Sports betting as an emotional hedge is a terrible plan. It should be an emotionless investment based on rational analysis and probability.", "timestamp": "1386876534"}, {"author": "Chris", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640987728332", "anchor": "fb-640987728332", "service": "fb", "text": "Danner: Interestingly, I often become more confident about directions when I'm less sure or know an area less. I think it has to do with knowing tons of routes and thus being unsure which is best. I think it also has to do with the fact that if I sound unsure, but we still end up somewhere good. If I sound sure, then even if we don't end up somewhere good, at least we felt good while getting there.", "timestamp": "1386877527"}, {"author": "Chris", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640987893002", "anchor": "fb-640987893002", "service": "fb", "text": "Mark: Why not? If you believe in rational analysis and probability, you need to have a utility measure, right? It seems to me that having your emotional response be your utility is a better choice than your net worth.", "timestamp": "1386877647"}, {"author": "Mark", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640988666452", "anchor": "fb-640988666452", "service": "fb", "text": "My mindset is largely that of the professional gambler, not the average sports fan. Most of my personal enjoyment from sporting events comes from watching the event, not who wins or loses. I'm very aware that I am not normal I'm this regard. And maybe I'm just really used to rooting for losing teams.", "timestamp": "1386878214"}, {"author": "Chris", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640990033712", "anchor": "fb-640990033712", "service": "fb", "text": "I'm not sure how I feel about watching sports. I think I do have such feelings, but my loyalty to professional sports teams is fairly wan.

And I feel a bit of loyalty to national Olympic teams, but interestingly, it's not just the US. I do tend to root for the US, but I also root for other teams whose native language I speak. And of course, there's a lot of cognitive spreading, so I would root for someone from Ukraine over someone from Spain, even though I speak some Russian and not some Ukrainian (I, in fact, speak more Spanish than Ukrainian.)

There's also a fair bit of iconoclasm going on. When I see everyone rooting for the Red Sox, it makes part of me root for the Red Sox, but it also makes part of me root for the other team. In particular, recently when it was Boston vs. Detroit, and I would root for either team as a local team (I grew up in Ann Arbor and moved from there to Cambridge 14 years ago), then since everyone around me was rooting for the Red Sox, I secretly was rooting for the Tigers.

But when actually watching, I mostly want to see an interesting game. I'd much rather see a close game than a blow out with \"my\" team winning. Maybe I would have fewer negative emotions in the case of the blow out, but the tension from a close game is pretty awesome, whether \"my\" team wins or not.

Quoting the word \"my\" actually made me think of another factor which is the fact that people identify so strongly with the team they root for that they see themselves as part of it. I listened to the \"Limited Resources\" podcast last week (a podcast about Magic the Gathering) and the guest host was a streamer (someone who plays online while people watch).

But the point is that when he's talking about his games, he frequently uses the term \"we\" instead of \"I\". \"We've been winning a lot recently.\" I don't know if it's conscious, but I think that it encourages the tribalism of rooting for someone. I wonder how much his use of that term helps build his viewership.", "timestamp": "1386879040"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640995931892", "anchor": "fb-640995931892", "service": "fb", "text": "This post seems like it might be a *bit* more aimed at someone like me than you two (Mark and Chris). If your utility isn't so tied up in the outcome, you probably don't need the insurance, just as if you truly did not care what happened to your car (because you were stinking rich or something), you wouldn't need insurance there either (legal requirements aside).

Of course, the real problem with this is the use of the Red Sox in the example.", "timestamp": "1386883237"}, {"author": "Josh", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/118273920476267337216", "anchor": "gp-1386883395453", "service": "gp", "text": "I really like this.", "timestamp": 1386883395}, {"author": "Chris", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640997703342", "anchor": "fb-640997703342", "service": "fb", "text": "Todd: I almost put in a comment about rooting for the other team, \"unless it's the Yankees.\"", "timestamp": "1386884174"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640997813122", "anchor": "fb-640997813122", "service": "fb", "text": "@Todd: \"the real problem with this is the use of the Red Sox in the example\"

I originally wrote it with \"the local sports team\" and their \"traditional bitter rivals\" but it just felt too awkward, and like the generality wasn't worth it.", "timestamp": "1386884240"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640997858032", "anchor": "fb-640997858032", "service": "fb", "text": "I know, I'm just being an obnoxious fan =P", "timestamp": "1386884273"}, {"author": "Robin", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=640999250242", "anchor": "fb-640999250242", "service": "fb", "text": "This is interesting, I've had similar ideas before.

The problem is that sports are entertainment, people watch them to prevent boredom. Betting enhances excitement, this system reverses excitement, so I don't think many people would use it.", "timestamp": "1386885132"}, {"author": "Arthur", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=641001056622", "anchor": "fb-641001056622", "service": "fb", "text": "I agree with Robin -- sports and gambling are about anti-hedging, about the human desire to make life more interesting and exciting by adding risk.

The ultimate hedge in gambling is obviously to just never bet anything at all, just as the ultimate hedge in sports is to just never care about the sport and therefore have no preference for any team.", "timestamp": "1386886074"}, {"author": "Phillip", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=641004075572", "anchor": "fb-641004075572", "service": "fb", "text": "Celtics fans actually have this hedge this year. It's understood they won't win a championship this year (rebuilding). The draft is particularly deep, and has several players perceived as franchise players. When they win you get a positive result, and when they lose, the odds of getting a great future player go up.", "timestamp": "1386888424"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=641004145432", "anchor": "fb-641004145432", "service": "fb", "text": "@Arthur, Robin: would you guess the situation Phillip described makes Celtics fans enjoy themselves more or less?", "timestamp": "1386888493"}, {"author": "Robin", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/640982264282?comment_id=641005058602", "anchor": "fb-641005058602", "service": "fb", "text": "Jeff... not a sports expert but I'll take a shot...

Phillip seems to be saying that the Celtics have a lower probability of winning this year than in previous years. He mentions rebuilding as a factor, which I'm assuming has to do with losing players. He seems to think the players entering the NBA next year will be better than in an average year.

Anyways, that's my take on Phillip's statement but I don't know him...

Given those assumptions, the Celtics have an incentive not to try their hardest, and thus if their season doesn't begin will (ie they have a losing streak) and they have to win 15 of their last 20 games (or some similarly improbably amount), they will have so little motivation that their games will be boring to watch for fans.", "timestamp": "1386889026"}]}