{"items": [{"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652763973642", "anchor": "fb-652763973642", "service": "fb", "text": "But what about all the California produce I buy? Something tells me current market practices won't be sustainable.", "timestamp": "1395600818"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652771683192", "anchor": "fb-652771683192", "service": "fb", "text": "Yeah, that's really the question. I have no idea whether shifting production to someplace with more water (or getting more water at the same places) will increase your costs by 20% or .2%.", "timestamp": "1395601188"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652774737072", "anchor": "fb-652774737072", "service": "fb", "text": "@Danner, David: I've seen almonds given as an example of of a crop that is produced almost entirely in CA and are also extremely water-demanding. Each almond requires about 1.1 gallons [1], and it looks like almonds currently cost about $10/pound [2]. A pound is about 400 almonds, needing 440 gallons. If the water used for almonds switched from free to desalination rates, those 440 gallons are now costing you $0.66. This brings the cost of that pound of almonds from $10 to $10.66, an increase of 6.6%.
[1] http://www.motherjones.com/.../wheres-californias-water...
[2] http://www.amazon.com/Natural-California.../dp/B00FFEH62G", "timestamp": "1395603637"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652775285972", "anchor": "fb-652775285972", "service": "fb", "text": "I don't want to make any really strong claims since I'm not an expert, but it seems plausible that [primarily large corporate] farmers have tricked the rest of us into caring a lot about something that's not really that big of a deal.", "timestamp": "1395603849"}, {"author": "Josh", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652875135872", "anchor": "fb-652875135872", "service": "fb", "text": "More generally, freaking out about things is always more fun than considering them carefully and balancing the costs and benefits.", "timestamp": "1395671827"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652881408302", "anchor": "fb-652881408302", "service": "fb", "text": "Cost increase for the consumer would probably be higher than what you describe. Most retail places sell products for at least double the price they pay, and their price would probably also increase by more than the absolute cost increase for suppliers. The more middlemen you add, the bigger this problem becomes. I'm assuming the listed desalination cost is the cost to the plant, not the cost that people pay to receive it, so there's additional money there if the plant wants to make a profit.
Let's say it costs the desalination plant an extra $0.66. The farmer might pay $0.75-80 for that water, and charge an extra $0.90-$1 to the big suppliers. Those suppliers are probably currently charging the grocery stores and such no more than the prices listed here, let's say $5/lb: http://www.nutstop.com/nuts/almonds.html
(The prices they list most prominently are the ones you pay if you get 25 pounds of it.) This seems a decent place to start for estimating the store's wholesale cost. Also, it fits neatly into the standard pricing model, since it's exactly half of your estimate for the full retail price. If THEIR cost goes up $.90-$1, they'll probably add at least $1 to what they charge the stores, so your cost as the end user at a retail store could go up $2 or more. That's 20%+.
Now, I'm no economics expert, but that all looks totally plausible to me. And it seems like a pretty significant impact on the average consumer (okay, so maybe we'd just eat less almonds if it were the only crop affected, but that's not really what we're talking about.) I agree with your larger point that the cost of everyday drinking water is small and insignificant to most people in the area. But, I think the costs imposed on agriculture (and those of us who buy agricultural products) are pretty significant here.", "timestamp": "1395676786"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652888898292", "anchor": "fb-652888898292", "service": "fb", "text": "@Daniel: this is all fair, but note that I made two generous assumptions in this example: I picked almonds, which I think are unusually demanding of water as crops go, and I assumed the current cost of water was $0.", "timestamp": "1395682280"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652889546992", "anchor": "fb-652889546992", "service": "fb", "text": "I did notice that you neglected the current cost of water. I suspect it's quite low, but it may still be significant. There is likely some room for an estimate between those two, and it's certainly true that other, less water-intensive crops would not be as affected. Still, I suspect $0.66/lb significantly underestimates the additional costs to the end consumer, even if not to the farmer.", "timestamp": "1395682824"}, {"author": "Marcus", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652892735602", "anchor": "fb-652892735602", "service": "fb", "text": "There are some key assumptions in this analysis. 1) The price listed is for desalination of \"brackish groundwater\". California will probably need to desalinate seawater, which might be more expensive. 2) Is your estimate only operating costs? Capital costs are also important. Supporting 1 and 2, http://www.utsandiego.com/.../carlsbad-desal-plant-pipe.../ has a price tag per gallon almost 5 times the El Paso example. Finally, 3) I'd be curious about whether the energy requirements would be enough that you'd have to consider secondary energy-supply ramifications (in a state where my recollection is that aluminum manufacturers and some other big energy users often sign deals for an electrricity discount in return for turning off production during brownouts).
Having said that, yeah, I imagine that in the US we could supply coastal residents with desalinated water at acceptable prices. But water politics in the West are often more tricky than they should be (see, e.g., Cadillac Desert).", "timestamp": "1395684426"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652896313432", "anchor": "fb-652896313432", "service": "fb", "text": "@Daniel: \"I did notice that you neglected the current cost of water. I suspect it's quite low, but it may still be significant.\"
I just did some looking to figure out current wholesale costs of water. The most expensive California irrigation water appears to be California Aqueduct water:
\"Over the past 10 years, north-to-south water have doubled in price to $800 per acre foot, or about 1/40th of a cent per gallon. This is considered very expensive in the world of Big Water.\" [1]
This is $25 per 1000 gallons, about 15x the number I was using from the El Paso example. But then the question is, how much of current water use pays this high price?
[1] http://www.theatlantic.com/.../american-aqueduct.../284009/", "timestamp": "1395686057"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652897231592", "anchor": "fb-652897231592", "service": "fb", "text": "@Marcus: \"secondary energy-supply ramifications (in a state where my recollection is that aluminum manufacturers and some other big energy users often sign deals for an electricity discount in return for turning off production during brownouts)\"
I wonder whether desalination plants could also turn off at times of high electricity demand?
California has a general problem with getting things built, but if new electricity capacity costs about the same as current capacity this is already factored into the cost of desalination.", "timestamp": "1395686859"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652898678692", "anchor": "fb-652898678692", "service": "fb", "text": "Acre-foot!!?! Worst unit of volume ever!", "timestamp": "1395687639"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652904252522", "anchor": "fb-652904252522", "service": "fb", "text": "Re: energy-supply ramifications, it could also have an impact on climate change. Even if renewable energy is created in/near California, it probably can't supply ALL of the energy needs for the state any time in the near future. As we shift to using as much as possible of the renewable energy supply at our disposal, any new, large energy consumption will raise the overflow -- the part we can't help but get from older, more conventional, dirtier sources.
That's not to say it couldn't, or even shouldn't, be done. It should, however, give us reason to consider some other questions carefully: Why, exactly, do such water-intensive crops need to be produced in areas that are low on water? Could growing these crops in different locations make a big difference in the consumption of various resources, or in their effect on both the earth and our wallets?
(Edited for minor spelling error, not substance)", "timestamp": "1395691074"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=652921657642", "anchor": "fb-652921657642", "service": "fb", "text": "@Daniel: \"Why, exactly, do such water-intensive crops need to be produced in areas that are low on water?\"
The places with the most sun generally have less fresh water available. As desalination gets cheaper I expect we'll find ourselves doing *more* irrigation of desserts to grow crops.", "timestamp": "1395699073"}, {"author": "Marcus", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/115811589251174483775", "anchor": "gp-1396256461373", "service": "gp", "text": "California is a huge agricultural region. Even if thirst isn't a concern, crop failure is.\n
\n
\nAlso building new infrastructure takes time. In a drought in the 1970s, they had to co-opt a lane of the Richmond bridge to lay an emergency pipeline to Marin county, which had exhausted their local water supply. Even if you could quickly build desalination plants, which you can't, getting the water to consumers takes a lot of work.", "timestamp": 1396256461}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=802778144042", "anchor": "fb-802778144042", "service": "fb", "text": "Desal in Israel: http://www.scientificamerican.com/.../israel-proves-the.../
They quote $0.58/1000L, which comes to $0.22/100gal, and this is for water directly from the ocean.
(Marcus had correctly objected to my $0.15/100gal as being based on an example of a plant that took brackish groundwater as input.)", "timestamp": "1469866173"}, {"author": "Jess", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=802801347542", "anchor": "fb-802801347542", "service": "fb", "text": "I was under the impression that the costs of desalinization was driven largely by the cost of energy, and that energy use for the process is near the thermodynamic limit. So is this just some combination of energy prices going down and Israel getting rich enough?", "timestamp": "1469883729"}, {"author": "Alyssa", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=802801821592", "anchor": "fb-802801821592", "service": "fb", "text": "Jess I expect the main factor is very low cost of solar panels. Unlike most power loads, desalination plants don't need continuous electricity, and the cost of peak-hour electricity is heading rapidly to zero.", "timestamp": "1469884213"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=802803907412", "anchor": "fb-802803907412", "service": "fb", "text": "@Jess: the article also talks about improvements in biofouling prevention.", "timestamp": "1469885105"}, {"author": "Jess", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=802807535142", "anchor": "fb-802807535142", "service": "fb", "text": "Yea, but I thought from my reading a year ago that the biofouling was a marginal effect (say, a one-time 20% gain). Seeing as the article highlights low-flow toilets as a crucial part of Israel's water solution, I don't trust the author to have a good sense of the relative orders of magnitude.", "timestamp": "1469887176"}, {"author": "Elmore", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=805160594592", "anchor": "fb-805160594592", "service": "fb", "text": "Your quoted costs only account for desalination at the plant. Cost at the consumers tap is the real number that should be compared. The tap cost includes pipeline infrastructure, pumping, and sewer. Add those costs to your estimate and you'll find water is much more expensive. However, it's still pretty cheap!", "timestamp": "1471094204"}, {"author": "Philip", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=806576207692", "anchor": "fb-806576207692", "service": "fb", "text": "\"Unlike most power loads, desalination plants don't need continuous electricity\"
A desal plant is a very capital intensive operation. If you plan to run it only 1/3 of the day, you triple your cost of capital. (this doesn't take into account reduced sunlight in the winter)
Carlsbad cost about $1 billion. Raising the cost to $3 billion is a big jump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsbad_desalination_plant", "timestamp": "1471823279"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=806610439092", "anchor": "fb-806610439092", "service": "fb", "text": "@Philip: Sorry, I wasn't clear what duty cycle I was thinking of. I agree that running your dsal plant 1/3 of the time would be way expensive, but I was thinking more about running it ~98% of the time. Turning it off at the brief times when you're at your peak regional power consumption for the year. See my comment to Marcus above about deals with the power company to turn off at high demand times.", "timestamp": "1471830685"}, {"author": "Philip", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/652759527552?comment_id=806621841242", "anchor": "fb-806621841242", "service": "fb", "text": "Sure, if you shut down your plant only 2% of the time, it's not as bad as 2/3 of the time. But we should bear in mind that most processes have startup and shutdown procedures which take time and often involve some amount of ruined product.
But I was talking about Alyssa's idea that you can use a desal plant as a way to use up excess peak power as though the desal plant were free and we could afford to waste it by not using it when there was no free or cheap power.", "timestamp": "1471833945"}]}