{"items": [{"author": "Elizabeth", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907280849782", "anchor": "fb-907280849782", "service": "fb", "text": "Interesting. I just led a meet-up on this topic yesterday. I don't suppose RobWib's page on nuclear attack led you to think more about disaster preparedness?", "timestamp": "1508989308"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907280849782&reply_comment_id=907281204072", "anchor": "fb-907280849782_907281204072", "service": "fb", "text": "→ That some, but I think the hurricanes have been the main thing getting me thinking about it.", "timestamp": "1508989559"}, {"author": "Elizabeth", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907280849782&reply_comment_id=907281802872", "anchor": "fb-907280849782_907281802872", "service": "fb", "text": "→ We came up with a few inputs that typically go into most people's level of preparations: signaling, how fun or unpleasant the event is to think about, and social reasons (like what the news is drawing attention to, what your friends are doing, etc.)
And lots of inputs that *should* go into how prepared you decide to be and what you should prepare for, like:
-how much you value your own survival or comfort
-how much you value your pet's survival/comfort
-how much you value the survival/comfort of various other humans
-your time preference
-the versatility of the supply or type of preparation
-risk aversion
-your sex (some risks affect the sexes differently)
-how probable you think various events are
-opportunity costs
-your geography (rural vs. urban, region, country)
-your model of the world, international relations, economics, and government
-your mental health", "timestamp": "1508989975"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907281563352", "anchor": "fb-907281563352", "service": "fb", "text": "To the packing list add knife and can opener.", "timestamp": "1508989816"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907281563352&reply_comment_id=907286204052", "anchor": "fb-907281563352_907286204052", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Multitool includes a good knife.
Can opener seems unlikely to be useful? Are you imagining that running into someone who had cans but no way to open them?", "timestamp": "1508992157"}, {"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907281563352&reply_comment_id=907323524262", "anchor": "fb-907281563352_907323524262", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Knife can take the place of can opener too. I don't see first aid kit on your list, although I see several things from a first aid kit, so what I really don't see are sterile gauze and bandages.", "timestamp": "1509025811"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907281563352&reply_comment_id=907347591032", "anchor": "fb-907281563352_907347591032", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Opening a can seems like it would ruin a knife? Is there a technique here?", "timestamp": "1509039312"}, {"author": "Eric", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907286094272", "anchor": "fb-907286094272", "service": "fb", "text": "mylar blankets suck. They shred quickly and are LOUD in any kind of wind. Get the slightly more expensive ones made from, I think, polyethylene.
A lighter works better then matches because you can use it to make sparks long after you run out of lighter fluid. Although there are concerns about lighters breaking and spilling the fluid.
Compass, signaling mirror, fishhooks. Waterproof fire starters. Cotton balls soaked in vaseline in a film canister works well for this.", "timestamp": "1508992105"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907286094272&reply_comment_id=907286323812", "anchor": "fb-907286094272_907286323812", "service": "fb", "text": "→ These seem like recommendations for someone in a more rural area than we're in?", "timestamp": "1508992238"}, {"author": "BDan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907286094272&reply_comment_id=907288070312", "anchor": "fb-907286094272_907288070312", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Fire starting is pretty important no matter where you are. For the rest, keep in mind if you have to evacuate you may well wind up in a more rural area.", "timestamp": "1508993839"}, {"author": "Eric", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907286094272&reply_comment_id=907289357732", "anchor": "fb-907286094272_907289357732", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Being able to start a fire quickly when every thing is wet is important. Imagine falling through the ice some place where you have a 5 minute walk to the nearest house. If you start walking your legs will stop working before you get there. If you can start a fire when everything you have is soaking wet, and all the sticks are damp then you will live. Given this I consider the lighter or the waterproof fire starter to be really important, but they work better together as the fire starters light well from just the sparks of the flint and steel in the lighter. The compass, mirror and fishhooks are long term things, but are small and light.", "timestamp": "1508994658"}, {"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907286094272&reply_comment_id=907324003302", "anchor": "fb-907286094272_907324003302", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Mylar blankets are there because they're very light and not bulky before they're needed, and they work well enough. I like bivvy sacks over blankets, they're very versatile.", "timestamp": "1509026081"}, {"author": "Eric", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907286094272&reply_comment_id=907345031162", "anchor": "fb-907286094272_907345031162", "service": "fb", "text": "→ The ones I am talking about are very similar to mylar blankets, take up about 1/3 more space but lasts multiple days. If you nick the edge of a mylar blanket ether you put tape on the tear right then or the rip will go right across the blanket in a few minuets of use.
My polyethylene blanket is 5 x 2.75 x 0.75 inches packed and weighs 3 oz and unfolds to 5 x 7 feet.
If you are going hiking and don't expect to be stuck out side more then 1 night, then the weight savings of mylar may be worth it. Just remember to pack earplugs or you may go deaf. But in a evacuation you should plan for multiple days and there will be no place to get replacements. Here the extra durability is really important .", "timestamp": "1509037561"}, {"author": "Milan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907330924432", "anchor": "fb-907330924432", "service": "fb", "text": "re: [3] \u2013 I thought a little bit about what to pack last year https://flightfromperfection.com/putting-a-bug-out-bag...", "timestamp": "1509029827"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907330924432&reply_comment_id=907335101062", "anchor": "fb-907330924432_907335101062", "service": "fb", "text": "→ \"p(event for which a bug-out bag would be useful) seems inherently larger than p(GCR occurs)\"
I don't follow this. Many GCRs that EAs worry about are not ones where having a bag packed would be useful: AI risk is the clearest example, but for many of the others ones (nuclear, pandemic) I think you'd probably want to stay inside.", "timestamp": "1509032373"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907330924432&reply_comment_id=907344272682", "anchor": "fb-907330924432_907344272682", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Maybe the idea is that the AI wouldn't literally turn everything into paperclips, but would (through pursuing its goals and not caring about us) leave the human habitat (institutions, etc) in shambles?
(Much like a more natural disaster.)", "timestamp": "1509037293"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907330924432&reply_comment_id=907345041142", "anchor": "fb-907330924432_907345041142", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Milan, my main comment on that bit of your post would just be that it's plausible for a risk level to be high enough to worry about altruistically while not high enough to consider at all selfishly.", "timestamp": "1509037575"}, {"author": "Milan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907330924432&reply_comment_id=907437430992", "anchor": "fb-907330924432_907437430992", "service": "fb", "text": "→ David Chudzicki Agreed, I haven't thought this through granularly. Because it cost about $200 and 2 hours of (enjoyable) time to put together, it felt pretty robustly worthwhile.
Re: nuclear, pandemics \u2013 not sure, but I think I'd want to get out of urban areas in many of these scenarios. The basic plan I envision is grabbing the bag & taking my motorcycle deep into the countryside.", "timestamp": "1509082484"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907330924432&reply_comment_id=907617909312", "anchor": "fb-907330924432_907617909312", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Milan yeah, no one's questioning your use of $200 and 2 hours. This thread is on the comment about inconsistency/\"signaling dynamics\".", "timestamp": "1509194658"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752", "anchor": "fb-907342740752", "service": "fb", "text": "I'm interested in the connection between \"very dense residential area with highly flammable buildings\" and fire extinguishers.
Is there idea that if fire were starting to spread from another house to ours, we would go outside and use the extinguisher on the exterior?", "timestamp": "1509036652"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752&reply_comment_id=907343134962", "anchor": "fb-907342740752_907343134962", "service": "fb", "text": "→ (I read you as saying density of nearby flammable buildings was a reason to have fire extinguishers. But I may have misread.)", "timestamp": "1509036812"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752&reply_comment_id=907346488242", "anchor": "fb-907342740752_907346488242", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I read that as just \"fires are more likely than most other disasters in our area\".
Fire extinguishers are obviously not going to stop a fire already engulfing one building and threatening to spread to the next. They may, however, stop the fire in one house before it grows \u2014 which would protect the one house in any situation, but has added value of protecting lots of other houses as well in a dense residential area. They may also, in the case of larger, potentially-spreading fire, partially hold back fire for a short time until the fire department arrives to deal with the large-scale issue.", "timestamp": "1509038603"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752&reply_comment_id=907347196822", "anchor": "fb-907342740752_907347196822", "service": "fb", "text": "→ > obviously not going to stop a fire already engulfing one building and threatening to spread to the next
That was my guess, but it didn't seem \"obvious\" to me - hence my question.
But I guess I'm probably just nitpicking / reading too much into it. (The fire extinguishers are the next thing after the bit about high density.)", "timestamp": "1509039040"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752&reply_comment_id=907347476262", "anchor": "fb-907342740752_907347476262", "service": "fb", "text": "→ David: sorry, no connection
Fire extinguishers because fire is dangerous, but we'd need them equally if our house had no other houses nearby.
(Though somewhat better altruistically: if our house is less likely to burn down then that's good for the houses nearby)", "timestamp": "1509039152"}, {"author": "David", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752&reply_comment_id=907357161852", "anchor": "fb-907342740752_907357161852", "service": "fb", "text": "→ A fire extinguisher in your house could also potentially help with a small fire nearby, before it grows and spreads to your house. (E.g., imagine you saw a grill fall over in a neighbor's yard. You could probably get there faster than the fire department.)", "timestamp": "1509042465"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752&reply_comment_id=907363179792", "anchor": "fb-907342740752_907363179792", "service": "fb", "text": "→ David: I'd just be really surprised if I actually noticed in practice before the fire was too big for an extinguisher.", "timestamp": "1509044634"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907342740752&reply_comment_id=907365150842", "anchor": "fb-907342740752_907365150842", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Yeah. That one would actually be more challenging to notice than many other kinds. The smell, or the smoke, might normally warn you \u2014 but if you knew your neighbor was barbecuing, you'd probably think it was normal barbecue smell. Whereas, under other circumstance you'd wonder what was burning!", "timestamp": "1509044909"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907365185772", "anchor": "fb-907365185772", "service": "fb", "text": "Seems like a lot of the things in (3) overlap with what one typically keeps in a diaper bag. If you already have one of those you don't need to replicate what is in there.", "timestamp": "1509044920"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907365185772&reply_comment_id=907365560022", "anchor": "fb-907365185772_907365560022", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I would also add a sharpie/pen and a flashlight/headlamp to the list.", "timestamp": "1509045165"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907365185772&reply_comment_id=907367680772", "anchor": "fb-907365185772_907367680772", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I don't keep a diaper bag: I just put some stuff in my backpack or stroller before we go out.", "timestamp": "1509046428"}, {"author": "Frederic", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907365185772&reply_comment_id=907402625742", "anchor": "fb-907365185772_907402625742", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I think it is kind of telling that you have an apocalypse bag but not a diaper bag.", "timestamp": "1509064591"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907365185772&reply_comment_id=907403309372", "anchor": "fb-907365185772_907403309372", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Huh? I have a system that works well for me on a day to day basis: pack for whatever we're about to go do.
(Also: packing for an apocalypse seems like preparing for the wrong thing. Instead it's more likely that I'll want to have stuff to walk to a shelter, and then once there food might be limited or water might be unsafe.)", "timestamp": "1509064923"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907396897222", "anchor": "fb-907396897222", "service": "fb", "text": "There are also things that are less disastrous but more common, such as having your furnace stop working on New Year's eve after midnight (happened to me!), various types of power outages at inconvenient times, various types of plumbing problems -- a friend had a major problem take place during the superbowl, for example -- house flooding. Some of these it's appropriate to prepare for, some it's just appropriate to know how to handle.", "timestamp": "1509062108"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907396897222&reply_comment_id=907402945102", "anchor": "fb-907396897222_907402945102", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Even if our house is entirely without heating at the coldest time of year we won't freeze. Blankets and being out of the wind go a long way. Most things in this category seem much more \"I'll deal with it when it happens\"; here I'm mostly worried about the sort of things where that won't work.", "timestamp": "1509064773"}, {"author": "John", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907471822072", "anchor": "fb-907471822072", "service": "fb", "text": "I mention some easy preparedness things to do that are less commonly talked about here in addition to my experiences preparing for Hurricane Irma here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10155211558538040", "timestamp": "1509111434"}, {"author": "Richard", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/907279781922?comment_id=907478952782", "anchor": "fb-907478952782", "service": "fb", "text": "When there are adult woman in your household, you'd better ask them what menstrual hygiene items they'd like to be added to [3].", "timestamp": "1509114541"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/113952791760990667476", "anchor": "gp-1509165718572", "service": "gp", "text": "In most countries the most likely issue that might affect one's life is a political collapse, a war, or a pogrom affecting one's own ethnic group or social class. In these case it's important to have foreign bank accounts and the right visas or passports. This only works for the rich, of course. Many rich people were stuck when Communism started in their country, because they didn't have foreign-held assets.\n
\nAnd of course the willingness to see the writing on the wall and leave when the time is right.", "timestamp": 1509165718}, {"author": "Robert", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/113659626847945078198", "anchor": "gp-1514108609297", "service": "gp", "text": "If your hot water heater heats water in a tank (as opposed to inline heaters that heat the water as it flows) you already have a large tank of potable water. There is also a way to drain that tank (for repairs or to prepare for frost inside), so you can get at the water inside.\n
\n
\nLong heating failure is also problematic due to all the stuff in a house that isn't resistant to frost -- mostly liquid containers and water piping (including piping to radiators, if you have water heating).", "timestamp": 1514108609}]}