{"items": [{"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=245970148833873", "anchor": "fb-245970148833873", "service": "fb", "text": "This is one reason why I want to subscribe to the journal of failed experiments. the sheer volume of this publication would make it hard to manage, but having a croudsourced solution might make it manageable. There are journals like this, but not to the extent that I'd like to have.", "timestamp": "1334691496"}, {"author": "Elmo", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/114274595318045509956", "anchor": "gp-1334695986070", "service": "gp", "text": "Darren Brown did this with Horse Racing. He also filmed himself tossing a coin and getting ten heads in a row. \nhttp://topdocumentaryfilms.com/derren-brown-the-system/", "timestamp": 1334695986}, {"author": "Richard", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246045365493018", "anchor": "fb-246045365493018", "service": "fb", "text": "Seem to remember a mot from Einstein that went something like this, \"What is a theory? Something no one believes except the person who made it. And what is an experiment? Something everyone believes except the person who made it!\"", "timestamp": "1334701251"}, {"author": "Edward", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246049538825934", "anchor": "fb-246049538825934", "service": "fb", "text": "I think you'll like this guy's blog:http://www.cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/698.html", "timestamp": "1334701880"}, {"author": "Patricia", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246059415491613", "anchor": "fb-246059415491613", "service": "fb", "text": "I believe in scientific method, but I'm getting way cynical about scientific results these days.", "timestamp": "1334703345"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246070718823816", "anchor": "fb-246070718823816", "service": "fb", "text": "@Edward: Good article. One thing struck me:
\"There is, so far as I know, no Journal of Evidence-Based Haruspicy filled, issue after issue, with methodologically-faultless papers reporting the ability of sheeps' livers to predict the winners of sumo championships, the outcome of speed dates, or real estate trends in selected suburbs of Chicago.\"
You do actually have something like this: parapsychology. It sometimes gets called \"the control group for science\" http://lesswrong.com/.../parapsychology_the_control.../
(The comments on the lesswrong article actually link to the crshalizi blog post twice.)", "timestamp": "1334705050"}, {"author": "Dan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246173468813541", "anchor": "fb-246173468813541", "service": "fb", "text": "This is why you have to have reproducible results. Repeating a study reduces the likelihood results are due to chance. Here's the relevant xkcd: http://xkcd.com/882/", "timestamp": "1334719657"}, {"author": "George", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246238105473744", "anchor": "fb-246238105473744", "service": "fb", "text": "Jeff, I don't think the question you posed at the end of your post can be answered without expertise on the IRB process. I could see it going either way (since I lack the necessary expertise). Preregistration might slow down publication and research more than it is worth or it might be helpful. My hunch would be the former.", "timestamp": "1334733867"}, {"author": "George", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246239942140227", "anchor": "fb-246239942140227", "service": "fb", "text": "My decision on letting you manage my money or not would be only based on your fees, basic competence, and how trustworthy I thought you were, not based on any history of stock prediction. If I thought I could pick someone to manage my money based on their stock prediction track record, then I should manage my own money, assuming our time is equally valuable. I can prove this via a reduction to stock picking. If I am capable of picking money managers based on historical results alone, I am also capable of picking stocks based on historical results alone. Just pretend each stock price is the performance of a money manager and it should be clear how this is fundamentally the same problem (or imagine incorporating the money managers and selling shares in their business linked to the returns they generate their clients).", "timestamp": "1334734425"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/245963325501222?comment_id=246457232118498", "anchor": "fb-246457232118498", "service": "fb", "text": "@George: You say IRB process experience but then your real question is whether preregistration is good on balance. I had thought there was close to a consensus on 'yes'. Requiring it as part of IRB approval would be a way of actually getting people to do it.", "timestamp": "1334770278"}]}