{"items": [{"author": "Mac", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669722803012", "anchor": "fb-669722803012", "service": "fb", "text": "Doesn't matter. The \"expectations\" are identical -- within loose values of identical -- 14.4 minutes vs 15. But my gut is that the day would be more useful than the half hour.", "timestamp": "1406388402"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669723576462", "anchor": "fb-669723576462", "service": "fb", "text": "@Walker: The question of relative usefulness is what I'm interested in here.", "timestamp": "1406389016"}, {"author": "Mac", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669723716182", "anchor": "fb-669723716182", "service": "fb", "text": "Understood. But a half hour is pretty useful. A day is more useful. Since the usefulness-es are of a magnitude and the expectations are identical, I'd go for the more useful day. Expectations are my first sort, followed by usefulness.", "timestamp": "1406389216"}, {"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669724025562", "anchor": "fb-669724025562", "service": "fb", "text": "I can see some seconds as more valuable than others. If you catch the subway door closing by a second, you've put yourself in a position where you are doing something more valuable when you get off than waiting ten minutes (or an hour) for the next one. Same thing with getting through a red light, same thing with getting out of the way of an accident. If I could choose the second I gain, it would be highly valuable. With an extra day, I'm likely to notice the value before it's over.
Giving everyone their second at the right time to highly benefit their life is something I can visualize better as having value than a random second asleep.
The subway example is the one I think of most. When that one person holds the door for 5 seconds for their friend, they don't realize the time wasted by 500 people already on the train. Which is more valuable?", "timestamp": "1406389559"}, {"author": "Rob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669726375852", "anchor": "fb-669726375852", "service": "fb", "text": "50% of half an hour has both higher expected value and lower risk?", "timestamp": "1406391684"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669728222152", "anchor": "fb-669728222152", "service": "fb", "text": "There is some sort of \"clumping\" to the usefulness of time. Just as how a charity might be able to do extra special things (e.g., hire someone) when you give them $30K but might not be able to do something useful with $5, it seems like people can do something useful with an extra day or an extra hour but not with a extra second. Therefore extra seconds are only valuable in how they add up together, just like how many $5 donations can create the $30K to hire a researcher.
Additionally, just as how I would not want to give $5 to every charity, I would not want to give a half hour to every person. I'd rather clump my money around the most effective charities and clump my time around the most effective people.", "timestamp": "1406393079"}, {"author": "Paul", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669728721152", "anchor": "fb-669728721152", "service": "fb", "text": "I think that for quantities as small as a day, it's exactly linear: my preference for giving the world a second falls between my preference for giving a day to 80k and 82k people.", "timestamp": "1406393552"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669729065462", "anchor": "fb-669729065462", "service": "fb", "text": "Jacy Anthis: We could set up some sort of alternation scheme.", "timestamp": "1406393900"}, {"author": "Rob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669729205182", "anchor": "fb-669729205182", "service": "fb", "text": "This economies of scale issue doesn't apply if you're adding on time to an already lengthy life.
Given that most people live 60+ years, on the margin they are facing declining rather than increasing returns.", "timestamp": "1406394009"}, {"author": "Paul", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669729779032", "anchor": "fb-669729779032", "service": "fb", "text": "I'm not sure whether returns are declining, increasing, or even, but for numbers this small it's near enough to linear that it doesn't matter.", "timestamp": "1406394379"}, {"author": "Rob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669729789012", "anchor": "fb-669729789012", "service": "fb", "text": "Actually I'll pull back on that a bit. It's possible it would be better to have half as many people living twice as long, because they could invest more heavily in their human capital thanks to lower effective 'depreciation'.", "timestamp": "1406394384"}, {"author": "Rob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730058472", "anchor": "fb-669730058472", "service": "fb", "text": "The scope insensitivity here is two-fold: that a) you can't comprehend the value of thousands of people getting a second because it's so many people and you can't visualise them all b) you can't see the value of those seconds because each second is so close to zero time, that your brain wants to round it down to actually zero time. If you can't visualise and feel the value of each second, your brain wants to tell you it doesn't exist at all.
Just treat them as linear and do the math.", "timestamp": "1406394598"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730332922", "anchor": "fb-669730332922", "service": "fb", "text": "I interpreted the problem the same as Jacy.", "timestamp": "1406394919"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730372842", "anchor": "fb-669730372842", "service": "fb", "text": "Also, if you don't treat them as linear, bad things like this can happen: http://www.philosophyetc.net/.../parfit-on-aggregation...", "timestamp": "1406394965"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730432722", "anchor": "fb-669730432722", "service": "fb", "text": "@Peter: part of the problem with giving small amounts of money is accounting overhead; that doesn't apply here.", "timestamp": "1406395018"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730507572", "anchor": "fb-669730507572", "service": "fb", "text": "I disagree on that -- I think there is some sort of overhead to figure out how to do something productive with a unit of time.", "timestamp": "1406395057"}, {"author": "Rob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730667252", "anchor": "fb-669730667252", "service": "fb", "text": "I'm assuming they can just continue doing what they were already doing (e.g. they die half an hour later, or they get an extra long day, or they don't feel tired, etc).", "timestamp": "1406395173"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730752082", "anchor": "fb-669730752082", "service": "fb", "text": "Another way of flipping the puzzle. Your choice of two pills:
Red pill -- every day for the next twenty years, you wake up one second earlier than you otherwise would, with no consequences (i.e., you feel and, in fact, physically are *just* as well rested).
Blue pill -- tomorrow, you wake up half an hour earlier than you otherwise would, with no consequences.", "timestamp": "1406395224"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730846892", "anchor": "fb-669730846892", "service": "fb", "text": "Rob: \"I'm assuming they can just continue doing what they were already doing\"
I wasn't assuming that, so that's where our difference would arise from.", "timestamp": "1406395251"}, {"author": "Rob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669730876832", "anchor": "fb-669730876832", "service": "fb", "text": "Red pill for me.
You can get rid of the time discounting component by saying it's a random day over the next 20 years that you wake up half an hour early.", "timestamp": "1406395278"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669731231122", "anchor": "fb-669731231122", "service": "fb", "text": "I suppose this is substantially identical to any sort of aggregation problem, like the Repugnant Conclusion.", "timestamp": "1406395339"}, {"author": "Rob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669731271042", "anchor": "fb-669731271042", "service": "fb", "text": "Well the same biases (if you can't visualise it, you don't feel it) are confusing people against linear aggregation in both cases.", "timestamp": "1406395390"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669731325932", "anchor": "fb-669731325932", "service": "fb", "text": "@Peter: \"Just as how I would not want to give $5 to every charity, I would not want to give a half hour to every person. I'd rather clump my money around the most effective charities and clump my time around the most effective people.\"
Consider the case of speeding up page loads on the internet. Gains here are extremely widely applicable, but also very hard to target. You'd give up so much in applicability by trying to target that it's not just a matter of \"who should get these extra seconds\" but also \"how many extra seconds will there be total\". Still, we want to understand the value of saving small amounts of time for many people in order to assess the value of the project.", "timestamp": "1406395449"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669731994592", "anchor": "fb-669731994592", "service": "fb", "text": "@Peter: \"your choice of two pills\"
Assuming we have the blue pill apply to a random day in the next 20 years then this another way of asking whether seconds are worth more or less than 4x if you get them in a 30min chunk instead of individually.", "timestamp": "1406395781"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669732603372", "anchor": "fb-669732603372", "service": "fb", "text": "@Peter: \"Also, if you don't treat them as linear, bad things like this can happen: [link]\"
The argument there doesn't look like it's about linearity. It's about what happens if you refuse to aggregate, and claim that a year of pain for one person is more important to prevent than any number any of single person seconds of pain. You can still think people can make better use of time in chunks.", "timestamp": "1406396162"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669733356862", "anchor": "fb-669733356862", "service": "fb", "text": "@Peter: \"there is some sort of overhead to figure out how to do something productive with a unit of time.\"
Most of the cases where this comes up you're taking a task and eliminating or shortening it. You improve transportation routing so everyone arrives at work slightly sooner, you improve plumbing so hot water arrives a bit sooner, you improve the process of filling taxes so you don't need to type in your income information, you switch from human tollbooth operation to automatic tolling, you publish bus predictions so people can leave their houses later.", "timestamp": "1406396674"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669736320922", "anchor": "fb-669736320922", "service": "fb", "text": "Re: choice of pills, if I choose the blue pill I'll be confused the day it happens, and probably do (some combination of) try to go back to sleep or waste time browsing the internet. If I choose the red pill, I won't notice the difference. So I guess that means red pill =P", "timestamp": "1406398215"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669737239082", "anchor": "fb-669737239082", "service": "fb", "text": "The fact that I wouldn't know I'd taken the pill is exactly why I'd just be confused. Wake up early? Shenanigans!", "timestamp": "1406398949"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669737293972", "anchor": "fb-669737293972", "service": "fb", "text": "Unless you're saying I'd somehow not be aware that I'd woken up half an hour early, which is... difficult to understand.", "timestamp": "1406399000"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669754729032", "anchor": "fb-669754729032", "service": "fb", "text": "Depends. Who's offering, how much do I have to pay, and who chooses what I'm doing during that time?", "timestamp": "1406412052"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669754763962", "anchor": "fb-669754763962", "service": "fb", "text": "And when do I get this extra time?", "timestamp": "1406412087"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669755262962", "anchor": "fb-669755262962", "service": "fb", "text": "@Christopher: some activity you normally do takes less time than usual, but you don't get to choose which one or when it happens.", "timestamp": "1406412446"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669755537412", "anchor": "fb-669755537412", "service": "fb", "text": "Jeff Kaufman Then the offer is useless except as something I could sell to someone else.", "timestamp": "1406412624"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669755856772", "anchor": "fb-669755856772", "service": "fb", "text": "@Christopher: are you saying that if facebook's pages loaded 1s faster on average, this wouldn't actually make people better off?", "timestamp": "1406412911"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669756031422", "anchor": "fb-669756031422", "service": "fb", "text": "Jeff Kaufman I interpreted the phrasing of the original question to mean X hours totally for myself, and your additional comment to mean I wouldn't get a choice for whether it was page load time or something enjoyable. That's a very different situation than the question you're asking. Though, to answer your follow-up question, I suspect a 1s faster page load time would make facebook much better off than people in general.", "timestamp": "1406413070"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669756285912", "anchor": "fb-669756285912", "service": "fb", "text": "I suspect that in the average case, if FB's pages loaded 1s faster that they would load in negative time. In which case, I *highly* approve of the suggested change. Let me know when I can start spamming the refresh button to add years to my life =P", "timestamp": "1406413343"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669756425632", "anchor": "fb-669756425632", "service": "fb", "text": "@Todd: There are a lot of people out there with much slower internet than you, but you're right, 1s is probably too fast. Also, what counts as a \"page load\" is awkward for an ajaxy webapp site like facebook.", "timestamp": "1406413469"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669756480522", "anchor": "fb-669756480522", "service": "fb", "text": "Well, I guess I meant *my* average case. In any case, I'm just saying, I want that tech!", "timestamp": "1406413511"}, {"author": "Brian", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/114156500057804356924", "anchor": "gp-1406430792249", "service": "gp", "text": "403 Forbidden", "timestamp": 1406430792}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/103013777355236494008", "anchor": "gp-1406431388696", "service": "gp", "text": "@Brian\n\u00a0Fixed!", "timestamp": 1406431388}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/669720587452?comment_id=669859020032", "anchor": "fb-669859020032", "service": "fb", "text": "It depends very much on when and how these extra seconds/hours/days are given.
In your example, for instance, of cutting a second off of each facebook page load (assuming we still keep page loads in positive time), I think the time is not very useful. Why? Facebook is not primarily a way that I do productive things. If I gained a little time here, I would most likely just spend that time to load another facebook page, and the time I would gain to use on things that matter would be zero...even if this happened often enough to add up to an hour or two of time that I theoretically COULD use on something else. If, however, this time came during my productive time, I would probably continue using it productively.
One reason seconds don't intuitively seem to mean much (even if we get them quite often) is that they're short enough to essentially never pass the 'overhead' of deciding what to do with them. No matter how many seconds you gain (one at a time), each one is almost certain to be spent continuing whatever you were doing before. With a half hour, an hour, or a day, I'm far more likely to do something NEW with that time, which is different in a qualitative way, not only quantitative.
I think this qualitative difference is a big part of what makes us intuitively reject (even if some may intellectually accept) the idea of time aggregation being totally equal. There is much less variation in the value of larger quantities of time, because we have choice in how we spend them. We have a chance to change whatever we've been doing (though we may not always take that chance.) A second, because it's so small, is necessarily absorbed into whatever we were doing before it.", "timestamp": "1406496662"}]}