{"items": [{"author": "David German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1394993564031", "service": "gp", "text": "It seems to me like GiveWell or any trusted 501(c)(3) could do the following:\n
\n
\n1. Solicit $5M in donations for an \"AMF or GiveDirectly\" account. \u00a0Make the amount of money in this account public.\n
\n2. To the extent that finalized AMF distributions exceed $14.5M in 2014, pay the excess from the account.\n
\n3. on 2015-01-01, transfer anything left in the account to GiveDirectly.\n
\n
\nThis allows AMF to know, before it agrees to any large distributions, whether the money from the EA community is there. \u00a0It gives donors a guarantee that their money will not languish unused for a long time if AMF is unable to pull together those distributions.\n
\n
\nI'd contribute to that. \u00a0In fact, I'd move my donations earlier in the year to provide AMF with as much signal as possible.", "timestamp": 1394993564}, {"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/651959450912?comment_id=651963782232", "anchor": "fb-651963782232", "service": "fb", "text": "Kickstarter style? I'll pay you the money if you make it to the distribution mark?", "timestamp": "1394993611"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/651959450912?comment_id=651969430912", "anchor": "fb-651969430912", "service": "fb", "text": "I imagine it'd be pretty easy for a group like Good Ventures to make this kind of guarantee, if they thought it would be worthwhile?

They've got a lot of money on the sidelines, and \"what Good Ventures thinks is worthwhile\" seems roughly the same as \"what Givewell thinks is worthwhile\".", "timestamp": "1394997711"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/106120852580068301475", "anchor": "gp-1395006684710", "service": "gp", "text": "Doesn't this raise the question of whether most of the money Givewell already moved to AMF \nshould\n have been through a fund like this?", "timestamp": 1395006684}, {"author": "David German", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/111229345142780712481", "anchor": "gp-1395008409412", "service": "gp", "text": "I can think of some arguments against the fund too, especially if it's administered by GiveWell.\n
\n
\n- It's additional cognitive load on donors.\n
\n
\n- It might damage relationships with one or both recipient charities.\n
\n
\n- It's a new FUD angle for critics of GiveWell.\n
\n
\n- If you think AMF is very unlikely to be able to finalize large distributions, or if you think uncertain funding will not actually deter AMF from doing so, promoting this fund is wasted effort and social capital.\n
\n
\n- The commitment device sets up some pathological scenarios, for instance if AMF finalizes a distribution in the first week of January.", "timestamp": 1395008409}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/651959450912?comment_id=652004864902", "anchor": "fb-652004864902", "service": "fb", "text": "I agree with David Chudzicki. This seems like something that is best promised through GiveWell / Good Ventures funds. GiveWell could even consider fundraising to have more cash available to solve these kinds of problems.", "timestamp": "1395018267"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/651959450912?comment_id=652005214202", "anchor": "fb-652005214202", "service": "fb", "text": "Seems like it's \"best promised through Good Ventures\" only in the sense that your money is best donated to Good Ventures rather than Givewell's top charities (if you share Givewell / Good Ventures' opinions/values.) I.e., the reasons it might not be best done through them are all fairly meta, which is also true of the reasons you might donate to Givewell's charities in the first place.", "timestamp": "1395018486"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/651959450912?comment_id=652005398832", "anchor": "fb-652005398832", "service": "fb", "text": "David Chudzicki: Also in the sense that it's much easier to coordinate $5M from one funder than from hundreds.", "timestamp": "1395018556"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://plus.google.com/106120852580068301475", "anchor": "gp-1395078229336", "service": "gp", "text": "@David German\n, all of those arguments against make sense to me except the 2nd to last. If you (that is, e.g. Givewell 2012) think AMF is unlikely to finalize large distributions, then you shouldn't be recommending them anyway. And AMF is claiming that uncertain funding \nis\n deterring them...", "timestamp": 1395078229}]}