{"items": [{"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150160548431213", "anchor": "fb-10150160548431213", "service": "fb", "text": "right, self selection is strong here, giving strong statistical anomalies. to live there, you would need to be supremely ignorant of the danger, or evaluated the danger, and decided that the risk/reward is worth it, and then stop worrying about the danger, because it has been accounted for.", "timestamp": "1303864341"}, {"author": "Danner", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150160550671213", "anchor": "fb-10150160550671213", "service": "fb", "text": "plus, if you live close, you may be able to see the danger before others that live downstream. keep your enemies closer, and all.", "timestamp": "1303864499"}, {"author": "BDan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150160669811213", "anchor": "fb-10150160669811213", "service": "fb", "text": "Of course, even if the most concerned people did move away, that doesn't mean that the people who stayed aren't in denial, just that the ones who moved weren't.", "timestamp": "1303876339"}, {"author": "Ben", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150160689816213", "anchor": "fb-10150160689816213", "service": "fb", "text": "So you're proposing that once you get a few miles away from the dam, people don't let their concern over the dam dictate where they live - but if you're within a few miles, then your fear will drive you away?
That seems plausible, though I find Diamond's original explanation a little more so.", "timestamp": "1303878698"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150160852786213", "anchor": "fb-10150160852786213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Ben: the survey data found that there was a distance at which you have a major change in attitude. So any explanation is going to have an \"once you get a few miles away from the dam, people don't X - but if you're within a few miles, then X?\". The question is, how do people deal with something very concerning. Diamond thinks they deal with it by mentally denying its possibility, I'm wondering how we know that they don't deal with it by moving away.", "timestamp": "1303902695"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150160986741213", "anchor": "fb-10150160986741213", "service": "fb", "text": "I agree, Jeff. The most worried people are going to be unwilling to accept the risk of living within a few miles of the dam. They'll move away, or not move into that area in the first place (depending on the time frame). There is likely still to be some denial among those who remain, but I suspect these will be primarily risk-takers who would not be terribly worried about other kinds of threats either, which might concern others far more.", "timestamp": "1303917561"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150160998256213", "anchor": "fb-10150160998256213", "service": "fb", "text": "Problems with the book? Tom wasn't quoted in this passage, or in Jeff's post, though, and I'm pretty sure the selection is large enough to show us accurately what its author intended.", "timestamp": "1303918495"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150161000491213", "anchor": "fb-10150161000491213", "service": "fb", "text": "I'm still happy to talk about the book as a whole", "timestamp": "1303918628"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150161001371213", "anchor": "fb-10150161001371213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Kit: do you know what passage he was talking about? Was the end result the implication that tom mcgovern believed something different than he actually did?", "timestamp": "1303918702"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150161002116213", "anchor": "fb-10150161002116213", "service": "fb", "text": "Also, my alternate explanation is testable: check whether more people have moved away from right below the dam. Possibly find the movers, ask them why they left.", "timestamp": "1303918777"}, {"author": "Daniel", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150161004026213", "anchor": "fb-10150161004026213", "service": "fb", "text": "It is testable, except that Jared hasn't told us what river/dam he's talking about (or maybe it's in the book, just not included in this passage?) It seems to be that he has left out the specific dam, because it's a pattern that's repeated in many of them. I would be interested to know, though, whether anyone has sought out that data.", "timestamp": "1303918986"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150161004816213", "anchor": "fb-10150161004816213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Daniel: there's no source given in the passage or the end notes", "timestamp": "1303919061"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150161038131213", "anchor": "fb-10150161038131213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Kit: I think the passage in question (the only one outside of the end notes where McGovern is called out by name) is probably:
\"\"\"
the fate of the Greenland Norse has often been laid to various single-factor explanations, without agreement being reached as to which of those explanations is correct. A favorite theory has been climatic cooling, involved in overschematic ormulations approximating (in the words of archaeologist Thomas McGovern) \"It got too cold, and they died\".
\"\"\"
I think this passage is ambiguous on whether McGovern subscribes to this single-cause theory or is just paraphrasing proponents.", "timestamp": "1303922165"}, {"author": "Jonah", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/psychological-denial-and-dams/10150160545826213/?comment_id=10150161067701213", "anchor": "fb-10150161067701213", "service": "fb", "text": "Jeff, I find your denial of psychological denial fascinating. Are you trying to preserve your own sanity in the face of some sort of psychological \"dam\"? :-)", "timestamp": "1303924844"}]}