{"items": [{"author": "Jesse", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105942676213", "anchor": "fb-10150105942676213", "service": "fb", "text": "Far as I can tell these were all driver error situations... I'd either want stricter training/alertness requirements or automated warning/correction systems...", "timestamp": "1300468687"}, {"author": "Victor", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105944961213", "anchor": "fb-10150105944961213", "service": "fb", "text": "Definitely driver error that was predictable. The driver in the New York accident had a list of driving infractions. Also, you are incorrect to say that people would take cars instead. As most of them don't have cars, they would be more likely to take the train, a safer bus, or not travel at all.", "timestamp": "1300468922"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105945226213", "anchor": "fb-10150105945226213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Jesse: You could say the same thing about car crashes -- stricter driver requirements or automated systems could save lives. Why do we see bus crashes as something we should fix but not car crashes?", "timestamp": "1300468958"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105945971213", "anchor": "fb-10150105945971213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Victor: what's making these low cost bus carriers take off is people switching from cars to buses. They're not primarily attracting people who don't have cars.", "timestamp": "1300469034"}, {"author": "Victor", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105947036213", "anchor": "fb-10150105947036213", "service": "fb", "text": "I think you're wrong about that. Do you have any documentation. Certainly the New Yorkers from Chinatown do not own cars.", "timestamp": "1300469088"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105948641213", "anchor": "fb-10150105948641213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Victor: ://las.depaul.edu/.../2010_Intercity_Bus_Study_12-29.pdf", "timestamp": "1300469227"}, {"author": "Victor", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105949496213", "anchor": "fb-10150105949496213", "service": "fb", "text": "OOps, I pressed enter! When I wanted a new line. As to your question above-we do care about car crashes. Seatbelts and Airbags are recent examples. laws about drunken driving,although imperfectly enforced are another.", "timestamp": "1300469308"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105951226213", "anchor": "fb-10150105951226213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Victor: when there's another car crash, we don't have people saying \"lets make cars safer\". When there's a bus crash. people do say that. Thing is, whether the most recent thing to happen is a car crash or a bus crash, cars are much more fatal per mile driven.", "timestamp": "1300469478"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105952171213", "anchor": "fb-10150105952171213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Victor: among the study's conclusions: the transportation mode that most people who ride megabus would be riding instead is a private vehicle", "timestamp": "1300469575"}, {"author": "Jesse", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105952606213", "anchor": "fb-10150105952606213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Jeff The relevant consideration here is not which risk is higher, but about where a little more attention would do the most good. Cost and benefit of regulation and impact on public safety.", "timestamp": "1300469629"}, {"author": "Victor", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105952991213", "anchor": "fb-10150105952991213", "service": "fb", "text": "I'm unable to open a pdf at this moment-so I can't read the study, but i don't think it relates to the busses that are particularly popular going to", "timestamp": "1300469678"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105953901213", "anchor": "fb-10150105953901213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Jesse: except that what would do the most good would be more people switching to buses from cars, and this is hampered by increasing bus regulation", "timestamp": "1300469764"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105954431213", "anchor": "fb-10150105954431213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Victor: from a wsj article:
\"At first we thought, 'Are we going to be successful getting people out of their car and into the bus?' \" says Dale Moser, Megabus's president. But a Megabus ridership study conducted last year revealed a ridership that was \"more affluent\" than expected, he says.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124528126290225307.html", "timestamp": "1300469821"}, {"author": "Jesse", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105954976213", "anchor": "fb-10150105954976213", "service": "fb", "text": "To address your question, I do want better driver training/recert for cars as well - that doesn't preclude taking action on a specific subset with a demonstrated problem. When signing up for a bus trip, unlike joining a car ride, one has little to no chance to assess the driver's condition or ability - they are providing a service for which I think a minimum standard of quality should be few avoidable accidents.", "timestamp": "1300469873"}, {"author": "Victor", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105955011213", "anchor": "fb-10150105955011213", "service": "fb", "text": "Chinatown, which is what the present uproar is about. It's true that individual car crashes don't get much attention. I'm amazed how much attention is paid when Shuttle astronauts die-is it particulary surprising? Should we feel extra sorry for people who decided to risk their lives for no particular reason. I think it' idiotic that Gifford husband is going up in the Shuttle. Sorry to change the topic. The tenuos connection is over-reaction to certains deaths.", "timestamp": "1300469875"}, {"author": "Jesse", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105959356213", "anchor": "fb-10150105959356213", "service": "fb", "text": "I also disagree that there would be full transition to car usage. As a young adult with irregular access to a car, any distance travel to a major city is going to be some form of mass transit. Even if 30-50% of riders could and would use a car, there's still a substantial number that would remain on bus/train/plane or cancel entirely.", "timestamp": "1300470311"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105961016213", "anchor": "fb-10150105961016213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Victor: it's about low-cost curbside buses, of which only some actually go to chinatowns. Most of the recent growth is megabus, bolt bus, and the like", "timestamp": "1300470499"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105963426213", "anchor": "fb-10150105963426213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Jesse: I'm sorry, I wasn't trying to imply that the curbside buses would disappear in the face of stronger safety regulations and that everyone would switch to cars. And higher safety standards would help those that remained on buses. But buses are currently so safe that increased safety standards are likely to only slightly reduce the number of people who die in bus crashes, while cars are so unsafe that even a small switch from buses to cars could kill a lot of people.", "timestamp": "1300470748"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105966101213", "anchor": "fb-10150105966101213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Martha: buses and high speed rail do well between dense population centers. Subways and bikes do well within dense population centers. Cars do well outside of them. Different kinds of transportation work best in different situations.", "timestamp": "1300471000"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105967361213", "anchor": "fb-10150105967361213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Martha: People are unwilling to say \"buses are safe enough\". Each crash is seen as a \"wake up call\" and something that should have been prevented (by new laws and requirements). This is not how we respond to car accidents.", "timestamp": "1300471154"}, {"author": "Martha", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105968036213", "anchor": "fb-10150105968036213", "service": "fb", "text": "Sorry, I keep posting accidently before I'm ready.
I think that it's important to keep bus prices low and to work on lowering the price on other bus lines but not at the expense of safety. Just because crashes don't happen as often doesn't mean that they don't happen or that improving safety should not be a goal. Did you know that it's cheaper and faster to drive to Burlington, VT from Boston than it is to take a bus (this obviously doesn't account for a price of a car-- but it's cheaper with Zipcar, too)? Public transportation in the US is a mess compared to the rest of the world.
At the same time, I don't think it currently is, nor that it needs to be an either/or situation of improving bus safety OR improving auto safety. There is lots going on to improve auto and driver safety. Adding seatbelt requirements has lowered car crash deaths a huge amount (I don't know how much offhand, but we talk about it a lot in my public health classes) and before that, adding speed limits did too. Currently some of the major ways of targeting auto safety are enforcement of DWI/DUI penalties and prohibiting texting and driving and cell phone use and driving. They're using all sorts of media to target teens and other vulnerable groups with the hope that putting away a phone while driving will become as much an instinct as buckling a seatbelt.", "timestamp": "1300471244"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105968341213", "anchor": "fb-10150105968341213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Martha: as for burlington vt, it remains to be seen whether there are enough people wanting to go between boston or albany and burlington for megabus or someone similar to expand to there.", "timestamp": "1300471272"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150105971886213", "anchor": "fb-10150105971886213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Martha: if you post when you didn't mean to, click the invisible x in the upper right corner of the post right away. It should give you an edit box back.", "timestamp": "1300471669"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106019286213", "anchor": "fb-10150106019286213", "service": "fb", "text": "Really Jeff? You're pulling out that tired industry line that it costs too much? I can buy one seat belt assembly at retail for $100, assuming that there are 50 seats on the bus that's $5,000. That's peanuts on top of the cost of a bus. The kind of buses that Megabus uses, are minimum $200k possibly up to 3 times that, the cost of adding seat belts is not even going to be noticed... get some facts then make an argument...", "timestamp": "1300476634"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106044716213", "anchor": "fb-10150106044716213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Neil: bus travel is already very safe, even without seatbelts. In these three crashes, 19 passengers died (I'm not counting driver fatalities, because these buses already have driver seatbelts). Looking online, I believe these were all the fatal crashes in the last year. The report I linked victor to lists 5.9 million passenger trips and 1.2 billion passenger miles. This comes to 0.16 deaths per 100 million miles. For cars there's about 1 death per hundred million miles.", "timestamp": "1300479440"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106059256213", "anchor": "fb-10150106059256213", "service": "fb", "text": "No arguments there, mass transit is safer that personal transit. That said a fairly typical valuation for economic value of a human life is a million dollars, $19m buys a lot of seat belts. I'm not sure we can know how many of those people would have been saved by seat belts... even if it's 10% that's probably enough to justify the cost.", "timestamp": "1300480919"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106088321213", "anchor": "fb-10150106088321213", "service": "fb", "text": "Actually amend that: the economic value of preventing a human fatality is $5.8 million according the the US DOT: http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/policy/reports/080205.htm", "timestamp": "1300483644"}, {"author": "Jesse", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106113351213", "anchor": "fb-10150106113351213", "service": "fb", "text": "And in accord with Neil's argument, the number of actual buses is relatively few. Say that there are 100,000 distance buses in operation, 50 seatbelts at $100 each is $500 million. This one-time expense equips the bus for every trip it takes for the life of the seatbelt... which we'll say is 10 years.
Yearly cost of seatbelts: $50 million. Yearly value of 19 lives: (19 x 5.8 mill) = $110.2 million
Still not sure if I favor seatbelts - those crashes would have happened, just would have limited some of the deaths/injuries. I'd prefer to regulate or support the drivers so that such crashes are less likely in the first place. However, the numbers could well add up in favor of a protective measure.", "timestamp": "1300485986"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106126266213", "anchor": "fb-10150106126266213", "service": "fb", "text": "Good analysis Jesse, though I think your numbers for the number of buses is quite high. At 1.2 billion passenger miles, that would be 12,000 passenger miles per bus.
Assuming an average occupancy of 12 (for no reason other than easy math) that would be 1000 miles per bus per year. That's probably closer to what they do every couple days. Let's assume a bus travels 1000 miles every 3.65 days on average, then we'd only need 1000 buses to do the miles.
1000 buses x 1000 miles/3.56days x 365 days/yr * 12 passengers = 1,200,000,000.
Yearly cost of seat belts would only be $500 thousand...", "timestamp": "1300487239"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106131226213", "anchor": "fb-10150106131226213", "service": "fb", "text": "According to Jeff's linked report \"The authors\u2019 field observations determined that conventional and curbside bus departures handled an average load of 25.1 and 36.6 passengers, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2009.\" Over double my out-of-thin-air number. They also mention \"444 daily trips\" in 2010, so even assuming some percentage out for maintenance and peak days having more trips we're probably well under 1000 busses.", "timestamp": "1300487798"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106133761213", "anchor": "fb-10150106133761213", "service": "fb", "text": "For reference $500,000 over that number of passenger miles would add less than 10\u00a2 to a trip from Boston to New York.", "timestamp": "1300488081"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106456641213", "anchor": "fb-10150106456641213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Neil: it sounds like you're saying that if the bus companies can reduce fatalities at under $5.8 million per fatality, they should do it. The problem with this is that this would make buses more expensive, people would switch to cars, fatalities would go up not down despite spending a lot of money.", "timestamp": "1300536451"}, {"author": "Jesse", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106525706213", "anchor": "fb-10150106525706213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Jeff That's the point of the DoT valuation of life - and as Neil said, $500,000 over 5.9 million passenger trips is 8.5 cents per trip. I highly doubt that will cause many riders to drive.", "timestamp": "1300544648"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106686791213", "anchor": "fb-10150106686791213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Jeff: I think Jesse's summed it up pretty well.
I was just throwing out those numbers to point out how much they dwarfed the costs of improved safety, but as you say one would have to account for the numbers of of people switching to more dangerous forms of transport in order to determine how much to spend (and note according to your own sited articles some of the bus riders were switchers from trains, which are safer than buses).
I think the equation for that is something like this:
5.8 million = bc * (btpm - ml(bc))/btpm / (1 - ((ml(bc) - tnt(bc)) * atfr)/(ml(bc) * bfr) * ml(bc)/btpm)
bc = bus cost spent to prevent fatality
btpm = bus total passenger miles
ml(x) = passenger miles of reduction at a given amount of extra spending
tnt(x) = passenger miles not taken at a given amount of extra spending
bfr = bus line fatality rate
atfr = weighted average of the fatality rate of alternate transport
Let's assume that:
atfr = 1
bfr = 0.16
tnt(bc) = .05 * ml(bc)
5.8 million = bc * (btpm - ml(bc))/btpm / (1 - 5.93 * ml(bc)/btpm)
...
I could go on and solve this, but I think you'll concede that 8.5 cents per trip will have almost no effect on ridership and that the cost is so much lower than $5.8 million per life saved, that it's not worth it. No?", "timestamp": "1300560376"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeff-kaufman/in-light-of-crashes-we-should-not-make-buses-more-safe/10150105934721213/?comment_id=10150106993981213", "anchor": "fb-10150106993981213", "service": "fb", "text": "@Neil: I agree that 8.5 at cents per trip it wouldn't switch people to cars very much at all. I suspect it would end up being more expensive, but I don't know.", "timestamp": "1300594990"}]}