{"items": [{"author": "tronald_dump", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bh31i", "anchor": "r-g2bh31i", "service": "r", "text": "Wow look at all those savings \ud83d\ude10\n", "timestamp": 1598012537}, {"author": "Diamond_Blue_S500", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2biexs", "anchor": "r-g2biexs", "service": "r", "text": "→ Tens, in some cases hundreds, of dollars!\n", "timestamp": 1598013492}, {"author": "smc733", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bnkle", "anchor": "r-g2bnkle", "service": "r", "text": "→ You can say that, but a change in rental prices of any kind (a market that was stable even during the 2008 financial crisis) is an ominous sign. They\u2019re not going to plunge 40% overnight, people need somewhere to live.\n", "timestamp": 1598016807}, {"author": "cpxh", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bnxvj", "anchor": "r-g2bnxvj", "service": "r", "text": "→ → \n
market that was stable even during the 2008 financial crisis\n\n\n
The Boston rental market did take a similar hit post 2008. ~8% off peak drop. It just recovered pretty quickly. Which is likely to happen here as well.\n\n
edit said housing, meant rental\n", "timestamp": 1598017027}, {"author": "dirtyMAF", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bppq7", "anchor": "r-g2bppq7", "service": "r", "text": "→ → → This is not the same situation. When this is over, not as many people will need to work / live in the city.\n", "timestamp": 1598018054}, {"author": "cpxh", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bqkx1", "anchor": "r-g2bqkx1", "service": "r", "text": "→ → → → That was also true in 2009-2013. There was a 4 year gap where there were far fewer jobs in the city than there were in 2008. It was true for a different reason, but it's still a valid comparison. \n\n
You are also assuming that a large portion of the Boston population only lives in Boston because their job is in Boston. I would disagree with this.\n", "timestamp": 1598018536}, {"author": "alphacreed1983", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2brdl0", "anchor": "r-g2brdl0", "service": "r", "text": "→ → → → → She right. Some people like it here.\n", "timestamp": 1598018973}, {"author": "smc733", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2brcix", "anchor": "r-g2brcix", "service": "r", "text": "→ → → Housing prices and rental prices are two different markets and respond very differently to economic conditions. Rental prices barely budged during the GFC. In the case of corona, this could be a semi permanent change away from cities.\n\n
The drop in housing prices was also 17%, see BOXRSA on STL FRED.\n", "timestamp": 1598018956}, {"author": "cpxh", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2cbzh1", "anchor": "r-g2cbzh1", "service": "r", "text": "→ → → → \n
Rental prices barely budged during the GFC.\n\n\n
Sorry, fixed my comment Median rental prices dropped ~8% from peak after 2008. That's pretty similar to what we are seeing here during covid. \n\n\n
In the case of corona, this could be a semi permanent change away from cities.\n\n\n
While possible, I have yet to see anything indicate this is the case, especially in a city with such a high student population. \n\n
What you might see is commercial space being converted to residential space which should increase the supply and lower costs that way, but again it's too early to tell, that would be a 5+ year trend to track.\n", "timestamp": 1598028686}, {"author": "gorfnibble", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2c7q4h", "anchor": "r-g2c7q4h", "service": "r", "text": "→ → Boston is one of the most expensive rental markets in the country. Even if Boston\u2019s rental prices declined 40% we\u2019d still be more expensive than a lot of cities.\n", "timestamp": 1598026901}, {"author": "1maco", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2c8ou4", "anchor": "r-g2c8ou4", "service": "r", "text": "→ → Not if those people are college students not coming for the year\n\n
Plus both international and domestic migration has slowed to a halt too\n", "timestamp": 1598027304}, {"author": "WinsingtonIII", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bsv92", "anchor": "r-g2bsv92", "service": "r", "text": "→ Did you get down to August? There was little impact at first, and mostly limited to the high end market, but they point out that now in August there is actually an 8% decrease in median 2 bedroom rent from this time last year. That's a pretty decent decrease when you consider normally we see year over year increases.\n\n
And as another poster noted, there is an 100% increase in open 2 beds on the market right now compared to last year. So honestly, I would be curious to see what happens to rent prices in a couple months, because with double the inventory available and fewer people trying to move into the city, I would not be surprised to see median rents drop in September and October as landlords are forced to reduce prices to fill those open units.\n", "timestamp": 1598019772}, {"author": "ethidium_bromide", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2c6kbs", "anchor": "r-g2c6kbs", "service": "r", "text": "→ → Just wait for the evictions.\n", "timestamp": 1598026399}, {"author": "stargrown", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bh9ft", "anchor": "r-g2bh9ft", "service": "r", "text": "I see no reference to your data source. Am I missing something?\n\n
Edit: okay I found it by clicking through some links on the site. It looks like padmapper.com which just gets data from Craigslist?\n", "timestamp": 1598012665}, {"author": "cbr", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2d7te1", "anchor": "r-g2d7te1", "service": "r", "text": "→ I get the data by scraping padmapper, yup! My code and raw scrapes are in https://github.com/jeffkaufman/apartment_prices\n\n
Padmapper used to scrape Craigslist (via 3Taps), but stopped after a lawsuit: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2015/06/padmapper-and-3taps-settle-suit-craigslist-over-use-real-estate-facts\n", "timestamp": 1598043869}, {"author": "crl826", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GGdkewRDaT8sJyhj2#aeBc3HByMRQzRofFC", "anchor": "lw-aeBc3HByMRQzRofFC", "service": "lw", "text": "My hypothesis would be that 3+ bedrooms are roommate situations and risks and costs are more distributed and, thus, a little more sticky.\n", "timestamp": 1598012967}, {"author": "cpxh", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bi21x", "anchor": "r-g2bi21x", "service": "r", "text": "\n
I think we're probably not done, though. Many landlords are small, and slow to react to changing market conditions. We're playing reverse musical chairs, where many landlords are going to be stuck without a tenant come September first. The ones who have realized this are offering lower rents, trying to keep their tenants, and as we get closer to September I expect more will catch on.\n\n\n
This doesn't seem to be the trend though. Only at the high end of pricing (<80%) for each apartment type do this years rents diverge significantly from last year's rents. The median apartment cost doesn't seem to have shifted down significantly in 2020. \n\n
Can you post the raw data, or can you post a graph that shows the change in median price between 2019 and 2020 over the course of the last 4 months?\n", "timestamp": 1598013241}, {"author": "cbr", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2d9bxi", "anchor": "r-g2d9bxi", "service": "r", "text": "→ Raw data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/125gEBgmnQPDeHReGa9KuAuClggHA_YYBCCsgej5OupI/edit?usp=sharing \n\n
Very raw data: https://github.com/jeffkaufman/apartment_prices\n\n
> a graph that shows the change in median price between 2019 and 2020 over the course of the last 4 months?\n\n
Sure: https://www.jefftk.com/boston-rents-2020-median-2br-by-month-big.png\n", "timestamp": 1598044648}, {"author": "cpxh", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2da5qe", "anchor": "r-g2da5qe", "service": "r", "text": "→ → Thanks, I think that is pretty clear.\n", "timestamp": 1598045073}, {"author": "n8loller", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bi2m2", "anchor": "r-g2bi2m2", "service": "r", "text": "Looks like the most savings is in the high end of the market, although in August there seems to an appreciable different in the low end as well\n", "timestamp": 1598013253}, {"author": "aslatts", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2boz47", "anchor": "r-g2boz47", "service": "r", "text": "→ I imagine the low end market pricing is a lot less flexible. \n\n
The cheapest apartments around can't drop prices very much while still keeping the lights on, so to speak, while luxury places can afford to drop prices a decent amount in order to ensure they actually have tenants.\n", "timestamp": 1598017635}, {"author": "cpxh", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2biduk", "anchor": "r-g2biduk", "service": "r", "text": "Can you please use the same scale for every graph? It very much changes the way this looks when some scales go from 0-9,000 and others go from 2000-6000.\n", "timestamp": 1598013471}, {"author": "cbr", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2d7xow", "anchor": "r-g2d7xow", "service": "r", "text": "→ Feel free to make a copy of https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/125gEBgmnQPDeHReGa9KuAuClggHA_YYBCCsgej5OupI/edit and tweak the graphs however you want.\n", "timestamp": 1598043931}, {"author": "16fca", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bmsyw", "anchor": "r-g2bmsyw", "service": "r", "text": "I'm actively looking. The past 2 weeks a few affordable places have popped up but no significant widespread changes. The nice underpriced places still get signed within 24 hours and have multiple applicants.\n", "timestamp": 1598016348}, {"author": "PLS-Surveyor-US", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bpvkp", "anchor": "r-g2bpvkp", "service": "r", "text": "Declining rents plus a buying and building spree in the suburbs....those two must be related. People are fleeing the density.\n", "timestamp": 1598018145}, {"author": "living-in-the-hills", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bsdnc", "anchor": "r-g2bsdnc", "service": "r", "text": "The last graph, % change in listing count, is the eye-opener. 100% increase in 2BR listings between last August and this August. Median price only down by 8%. Landlords are holding out for tenants by slightly undercutting each other while tolerating an increase in available units. Let's see how it holds over the rest of the year.\n", "timestamp": 1598019511}, {"author": "deanykg", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2btmrd", "anchor": "r-g2btmrd", "service": "r", "text": "Not gonna lie, this visualization is terrible. :\\\n", "timestamp": 1598020175}, {"author": "bulanko", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2ccqpz", "anchor": "r-g2ccqpz", "service": "r", "text": "→ Yeah, I can't imagine a worse way to demonstrate this drop than a baffling percentage x axis, price y axis graph\n", "timestamp": 1598029012}, {"author": "cbr", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2d8a95", "anchor": "r-g2d8a95", "service": "r", "text": "→ The X axis is all apartment listings from cheapest to most expensive. The Y axis is price. This kind of graph communicates a lot of information quickly, once you're used to it.\n\n
What sort of visualization would you prefer, and why?\n", "timestamp": 1598044107}, {"author": "Bald_Sasquach", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2eqqkg", "anchor": "r-g2eqqkg", "service": "r", "text": "→ → I think a better explanation of the x axis would help cause I had to go hunt it down when I tried to scan the graphs before reading, and there's a ton of dead vertical space on most of the graphs where the majority of the curve is between $2000 and $4000 but there's no finer details on the Y axis to see $3000 and we don't really need to see the vertical tips of the curve below 10% and above 90%\n", "timestamp": 1598070397}, {"author": "thegalwayseoige", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2bukjc", "anchor": "r-g2bukjc", "service": "r", "text": "There will be more apartments available this fall\u2014a lot of students are commuting remotely, and you have to believe a good chunk of renters will want out of a population center, during a pandemic.\nLeases are starting to expire, and logic says the next couple of months are going to see further decline.\n", "timestamp": 1598020674}, {"author": "tara_tara_tara", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2by63u", "anchor": "r-g2by63u", "service": "r", "text": "I know this is not the same but I am seriously thinking about selling my condo and using the proceeds to pay cash for a house in the Berkshires.\n\n
There\u2019s nothing going on here and it\u2019s unlikely there\u2019s going to be a lot going on for the next who knows how long.\n\n
I\u2019m 52 and I was tentatively planning a move out there when I was 55 but I think it\u2019s just time to pack up and go. I wouldn\u2019t be moving to the middle of nowhere. I am looking at Lenox, Stockbridge, and Lee.\n", "timestamp": 1598022525}, {"author": "tempelhof_de", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2cinh5", "anchor": "r-g2cinh5", "service": "r", "text": "→ We just bought a home in RI. We didn't see the value in renting here anymore with a lower quality of life vs owning our own home and having a yard.\n", "timestamp": 1598031652}, {"author": "[deleted]", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2c43yv", "anchor": "r-g2c43yv", "service": "r", "text": "[deleted]\n", "timestamp": 1598025325}, {"author": "tempelhof_de", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2ciqji", "anchor": "r-g2ciqji", "service": "r", "text": "→ Some places in NYC are doing 3 months free + $1500 in concessions. It's crazy the good deals out there. Glad you were able to get something good!\n", "timestamp": 1598031693}, {"author": "cbr", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2d9oes", "anchor": "r-g2d9oes", "service": "r", "text": "→ > I got 2 free months. That is an insane perk.\n\n
Two free months is 17% off; about twice what we're seeing at the median in August (8%). On the other hand, I'm seeing a 21% decrease at the 90th percentile (though, as you say, they could be offering three months on top of that decrease).\n", "timestamp": 1598044826}, {"author": "_MCCCXXXVII", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2dawp8", "anchor": "r-g2dawp8", "service": "r", "text": "→ Yeah the unit I\u2019m moving to was marked down from $5200 to $4700, with 2 months free on top of that. Probably means I only stay there a year, but still quite nice.\n", "timestamp": 1598045461}, {"author": "[deleted]", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2ckufx", "anchor": "r-g2ckufx", "service": "r", "text": "[deleted]\n", "timestamp": 1598032699}, {"author": "cbr", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2d9t2t", "anchor": "r-g2d9t2t", "service": "r", "text": "→ The map is based on the same data: https://www.jefftk.com/apartment_prices/index#2020-08-18&2\n\n
You can look at the Savin Hill area and how its estimates have changed over the past months?\n", "timestamp": 1598044893}, {"author": "badboybilly42582", "source_link": "http://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/idvn3b#g2m4uf1", "anchor": "r-g2m4uf1", "service": "r", "text": "My thoughts are that people want to get out of densely populated areas during the pandemic. Also companies (white collard workers) are now working from home so people who were once concerned about long commutes now no longer need to worry and are moving into the burbs.\n", "timestamp": 1598210278}, {"author": "Timothy Underwood", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GGdkewRDaT8sJyhj2#bRrG6TXitE9fDXsnp", "anchor": "lw-bRrG6TXitE9fDXsnp", "service": "lw", "text": "Huh, my instinctive (and thus likely to be wrong) hypothesis is that coronavirus hasn't economically hurt rich people very much, so the competitive house price dynamics for big units are still going on, while it has hit poorer people much harder.", "timestamp": 1599669931}]}