{"items": [{"author": "Cullyn", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812", "service": "fb", "text": "Why is it worse to have an oversupply of houses? Deterioration of neighborhood quality?
But in SF, undersupply probably causes homelessness. Does the badness depend on the city? Hard to imagine Somerville housing prices cause homelessness.", "timestamp": "1573750552"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812&reply_comment_id=10100121527140472", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812_10100121527140472", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Cullyn areas with far more people who want to live there than houses (SF etc) have one kind of problem, while areas with far fewer people than houses (Detroit etc) have a different kind of problem. But the first kind of problem is a \"good problem to have\" in that we can build housing to make up the difference, while a city becoming undesirable can get into a downward spiral.", "timestamp": "1573751117"}, {"author": "Linnea", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812&reply_comment_id=10100121527295162", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812_10100121527295162", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Cullyn see Detroit and Pittsburgh for examples.", "timestamp": "1573751253"}, {"author": "Cullyn", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812&reply_comment_id=10100121528178392", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812_10100121528178392", "service": "fb", "text": "→ (I\u2019m from the Detroit area)
I guess I view housing oversupply as politically a more tractable problem. Also it doesn\u2019t seem as bad as rendering people homeless. These are all qualitative feelings and I\u2019d be interested in seeing data/CBA.
Also from my SF experience, there are compounding effects to undersupply as well.", "timestamp": "1573751741"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812&reply_comment_id=10100121528792162", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812_10100121528792162", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Cullyn yeah, I could be convinced. I don't think any of my argument depends on which problem is worse", "timestamp": "1573752112"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812&reply_comment_id=10100121531192352", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812_10100121531192352", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Edited from \"much worse\" to \"probably worse\"", "timestamp": "1573753616"}, {"author": "Cullyn", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812&reply_comment_id=10100121540279142", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812_10100121540279142", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Interesting Planet Money episode on remedying housing oversupply in Baltimore. https://overcast.fm/+HuIgatml4", "timestamp": "1573757881"}, {"author": "Linchuan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121525972812&reply_comment_id=10100121629759822", "anchor": "fb-10100121525972812_10100121629759822", "service": "fb", "text": "→ From the perspective of a \"city\", housing oversupply if a harder problem.
From the perspective of an individual, not finding housing is surely a bigger issue?", "timestamp": "1573794471"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121526915922", "anchor": "fb-10100121526915922", "service": "fb", "text": "Agglomeration effects are increasing, so good jobs are increasingly located in big cities. Housing supply needs to increase in response.", "timestamp": "1573751037"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121526915922&reply_comment_id=10100121570453672", "anchor": "fb-10100121526915922_10100121570453672", "service": "fb", "text": "→ https://eml.berkeley.edu//~moretti/clusters.pdf", "timestamp": "1573769636"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121526915922&reply_comment_id=10100121577489572", "anchor": "fb-10100121526915922_10100121577489572", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I argue in that direction some here: https://www.jefftk.com/p/let-people-move-to-jobs", "timestamp": "1573772284"}, {"author": "Linnea", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121526925902", "anchor": "fb-10100121526925902", "service": "fb", "text": "Yes! Be more like New York and less like California. New York is building tons of mixed income housing and for the first time in 15 years rents leveled instead of going up in my neighborhood, where we've added something like 10,000 housing units.", "timestamp": "1573751039"}, {"author": "Bil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312", "service": "fb", "text": "I believe you are looking at things from the \"wrong\" (as in \"ineffective\") point of view. I do not believe that you are \"lucky\" to have a good job. I believe you worked hard. So... Why aren't your friends taking all these good-paying jobs that are driving prices up?", "timestamp": "1573753638"}, {"author": "Margaret", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121532699332", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121532699332", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Bil seriously?", "timestamp": "1573754302"}, {"author": "Molly", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121532749232", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121532749232", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I assume you have never ordered food, a taxi, used a road, put out your trash, or utilized anything that needs to be manufactured, shipped, delivered, or maintained.", "timestamp": "1573754327"}, {"author": "Margaret", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121533053622", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121533053622", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Setting aside a whole bunch about race... most of my white peers who have bought houses in the past 5 years (including in the Boston area) have received financial assistance from their parents. That\u2019s a profound amount of luck.", "timestamp": "1573754540"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121533283162", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121533283162", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Bil the main way I'm lucky is that I happened to be good at something (programming) that people are willing to pay a lot for. But I don't want to live in a city that only programmers can afford!", "timestamp": "1573754614"}, {"author": "Ezra", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121535039642", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121535039642", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I am one of those people and I could only do it because of wealth from grandparents. Like everything, there is luck involved, but this is also definitely the legacy of generations of systemic inequality.", "timestamp": "1573755553"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1573756410"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1573757184"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121539096512", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121539096512", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Elliot sure; I wrote about this some in https://www.jefftk.com/p/the-privilege-of-earning-to-give", "timestamp": "1573757337"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121539605492", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121539605492", "service": "fb", "text": "→ (In responding to Bil I was looking at the things that made my situation different from my friends who aren't able to take these jobs, who are privileged similarly to me in most of those ways)", "timestamp": "1573757611"}, {"author": "Laura", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121543986712", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121543986712", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I am not less smart than Jeff. (Or, I might be less smart than Jeff, but not by the same factor that my salary is less than his.) I\u2019m not even less lucky than Jeff, as best I can tell. We have, generally, somewhat comparable workplaces (Google and MIT) and our work is office- and computer-based (i.e., I\u2019m not a performance artist or dog trainer). My work, in my field, is just valued massively less than Jeff\u2019s, and that\u2019s the crucial bit of luck/history/systemic bias that means he can stay here and have a life he wants, and I can\u2019t. And, at this point, the fact that my work experience is all in this field, where I do valuable but not valued work, means that I can\u2019t just up and take one of the well-paying jobs that are supposedly driving up prices. Please find a different solution.", "timestamp": "1573759040"}, {"author": "Bil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121590014472", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121590014472", "service": "fb", "text": "→ One thing I have always admired and respected about Jeff, is that he is open to engaging in what may be awkward conversations about stuff like this.", "timestamp": "1573777750"}, {"author": "Bil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121591526442", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121591526442", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Re: Snarky comments above. As a Peace Corps Volunteer teaching at the exact intersection of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, I have seen a bit of the real hardships that people I care about have endured. And I tend to be unsympathetic when I see people with enormous opportunities squander them. Which is the reason that I'm always pushing people to be better, work harder, complain less, and care more.", "timestamp": "1573778644"}, {"author": "Linchuan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121602753942", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121602753942", "service": "fb", "text": "→ \"Why are you complaining about long lines? Just show up to the theater early and you'd be at the front of the line! :P \"", "timestamp": "1573783546"}, {"author": "Anna", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121607908612", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121607908612", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Volunteering with the Peace Corps does not give you license to be very rude.", "timestamp": "1573785148"}, {"author": "Linchuan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121629265812", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121629265812", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Tone policing and the practicality of getting high paying jobs aside, the point I'm getting at is that \"getting better jobs\" might locally be a viable strategy, but it in no way solves the actual problem of supply of housing being inelastic to price.", "timestamp": "1573794185"}, {"author": "Linchuan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121629350642", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121629350642", "service": "fb", "text": "→ (if everybody shows up 30 minutes early, the line is just as long)", "timestamp": "1573794228"}, {"author": "Bil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121676925302", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121676925302", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Having a good profession and a decent-paying job is a one-person solution, true. That one person (you?) will now have control over their own lives and be able to help others. And everyone can take that one-person step. There is plenty of room for everyone in the middle.", "timestamp": "1573824270"}, {"author": "Margaret", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121765732332", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121765732332", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Bil no, there isn\u2019t. That\u2019s exactly what this post is about.", "timestamp": "1573859300"}, {"author": "Bil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121875337682", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121875337682", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Yes, you can build a well-paying profession. You have the power. You have dozens of wonderful friends who will support you. And when you are in control of your own life, you will be able to help others. Progressives always say \"Most people give away their power because they don't know they have it.\" This is what they're talking about.", "timestamp": "1573870924"}, {"author": "Bil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121875362632", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121875362632", "service": "fb", "text": "→ (and I'll shut up now)", "timestamp": "1573870939"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121903566112", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121903566112", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Okay, but no amount of money gives you the power to house yourself unless someone else loses housing or someone builds housing.", "timestamp": "1573882942"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121531212312&reply_comment_id=10100121904569102", "anchor": "fb-10100121531212312_10100121904569102", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Also, being friends with Jeff is a privilege", "timestamp": "1573883731"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121532335062", "anchor": "fb-10100121532335062", "service": "fb", "text": "You more or less summed up my views.
We need more housing, and I'll take it in any form.", "timestamp": "1573754131"}, {"author": "Nathan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121534440842", "anchor": "fb-10100121534440842", "service": "fb", "text": "\u201cIt\u2019s a major issue that\u2019s really hurting our community\u201d
Can you elaborate?
I hear that you want less commute distance for environmental reasons and you want to live near your friends, but I\u2019m not sure those are really \u201cmajor issues.\u201d Why not accept Somerville as very stable and spread the prosperity from Somerville to the poorer nearby towns?
Climate change is a major issue, but the commute difference between Somerville versus Chelsea (eg) is not the root cause of climate change.
Living near your friends though? Tough argument to make to justify urban policy change.
For the most part I\u2019m with you on deregulating the housing market, but I feel like there are more factors to consider.", "timestamp": "1573755266"}, {"author": "Julia", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121534440842&reply_comment_id=10100121535723272", "anchor": "fb-10100121534440842_10100121535723272", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Nathan People who are living here and want to keep living here can't afford to stay, either because the rent in their same unit keeps rising, or because they want to have kids and can't afford more bedrooms. They're moving away from friends and neighbors. That's not a stable Somerville.
Somerville became what it is now largely because of the red line. People like living near the red line. I think more people who want to live near it should be able to. Even if everyone who's priced out of Somerville moves to Watertown or Medford and those towns get hipster oatmeal shops, etc, people will still be spending more of their lives commuting.", "timestamp": "1573755933"}, {"author": "Robert", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121534440842&reply_comment_id=10100121537958792", "anchor": "fb-10100121534440842_10100121537958792", "service": "fb", "text": "→ The Red Line was big part of it, but so was the statewide elimination of rent control (which Bostonand Cambridge had, but Somerville did not). Non-rich people were largely priced out of Cambridge, causing a considerable influx into then-inexpensive Somerville, and of course the increased demand drove up housing prices there.
Somerville is on its way to becoming what Cambridge has been for two decades or so.", "timestamp": "1573756735"}, {"author": "Anna", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121534440842&reply_comment_id=10100121561082452", "anchor": "fb-10100121534440842_10100121561082452", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I think the more salient point is that if even Jeff's well-educated, largely white, and probably better-off-than-average friends are being priced out of Somerville (I am all three of those things and I was priced out of Somerville), there are a LOT of people who are really being priced out of Somerville who have many fewer resources and safety nets to fall back on. People who may have to move away from the Boston area entirely. People who may have to move away from their own aging parents, or leave their jobs because they can't afford to live anywhere within commuting distance. Do we want a Somerville where daycare workers become scarcer because they can't afford to live here (when daycare is already astronomical here, ie more expensive than college). THAT's a major issue that hurts our community (or rather, your community I suppose, since I live in Medford now).", "timestamp": "1573765420"}, {"author": "Eli", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121534440842&reply_comment_id=10100121761765282", "anchor": "fb-10100121534440842_10100121761765282", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Robert, to your point:
\u201cRepresentative Mike Connolly of Cambridge is one of two sponsors\u2014along with Nika Elugardo of Boston\u2014of the Tenant Protection Act, which would, in Connolly\u2019s words, \u201cenable flexible, local options to help stop displacement.\u201d
The pending legislation would offer municipalities a veritable toolkit to choose from in enacting tenant protections, including rent boards to set limits on rent increases and regulations for strengthening the position of tenants when an apartment building goes condo. The legislation does not cover owner-occupied dwellings with three of fewer units\u2014and municipalities would be free to opt out of any rent control system.\u201d
https://boston.curbed.com/.../massachusetts-rent-control...", "timestamp": "1573857578"}, {"author": "Ofer", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121536252212", "anchor": "fb-10100121536252212", "service": "fb", "text": "One thing that gets lost in discussions about this, and that I think you glossed over, is the need to make a community accessible to lots of new people. People very often emphasize not forcing out existing renters, and you referred to that several times in your post. But tenant protections and rent control can accomplish that - and that's partly how you get San Francisco. Plenty of people who were lucky enough to have already been there before the economy started drawing in lots more, can still afford to live there on low incomes. But nobody new can get in unless they're wealthy or have a top-20% job. Cambridge and Somerville especially depend on a regular influx of new people, including immigrants and students, who typically don't have a lot of wealth or income. We really need to emphasize this in all discussions of housing policy. If we only judge housing policy on how well it protects existing residents, Cambridge and Somerville especially will gradually become pale shadows of their current selves.", "timestamp": "1573756136"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121536252212&reply_comment_id=10100121537444822", "anchor": "fb-10100121536252212_10100121537444822", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Ofer I agree; my emphasis on existing residents is mostly to say that people should support building *even if* they only care about existing residents", "timestamp": "1573756549"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121543851982", "anchor": "fb-10100121543851982", "service": "fb", "text": "The challenge is that the people who already live in a popular place often don't want more houses to be built there, or don't want existing houses to be subdivided. How can we, as each community, balance the desires of existing residents against the desires of newcomers?", "timestamp": "1573758979"}, {"author": "Ofer", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121543851982&reply_comment_id=10100121546277122", "anchor": "fb-10100121543851982_10100121546277122", "service": "fb", "text": "→ By speaking up and organizing for the interests of newcomers, to try to counterbalance just a little bit of the overwhelmingly more power that existing residents already have. Especially those existing residents who don't want change and thing they can stop change by blocking new construction - when they have no veto power against the sale of a house at a higher price, or someone raising a neighbor's rent.", "timestamp": "1573759980"}, {"author": "David", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582", "service": "fb", "text": "I'm really interested in figuring out what the balance level is between supply and demand. At which point does greater demand than supply drive healthy increases in prices and investment, and at what point does it get out of hand? What's the level of stock over supply that starts to really hollow out communities? I don't know if data to assess that has historically been available, but I'm sure Zillow now has most or all of what you need as a proprietary data set.", "timestamp": "1573763298"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121592379732", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121592379732", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I'm not sure what \"healthy increases in prices\" is? It seems to me like housing should cost the cost of construction, and not be an investment.", "timestamp": "1573779073"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121600718022", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121600718022", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman This may be the essential difference between public housing and private.
\"Private\" landlords look at housing (for others) as an investment, that will repay loans and return income, capital gains, or both. \"Public\" landlords (at their best) can rent (to others) at a cost sufficient to only cover the maintenance and repay the municipal bonds.
I'm generally in favor of voucher programs, so that private landlords can receive market rent, while tenants pay less than market. But I can see the potential for abuse by either, and dimly see the controls that would be needed to prevent abuse.", "timestamp": "1573782796"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121601127202", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121601127202", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Bill private landlords can make money on the difference between rent and expenses. You don't need property or land appreciation to make the business work.", "timestamp": "1573782955"}, {"author": "David", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121601341772", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121601341772", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Well I haven't built a model or this or anything, but it seems to me that housing prices should roughly increase in line with inflation in a stable market, and that the degree to which prices increase more than inflation would spur greater investment in new housing starts (assuming low regulatory barriers and good land availability).
Similarly I expect that if housing prices lagged inflation that fewer people would want to build new houses. Of course, margin is still relevant; the primary driver might still be sales price minus cost of construction since no one expects to sell for the cost of construction, but if labor prices rise faster than sales prices fewer people would build, in that scenario.", "timestamp": "1573783042"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121601671112", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121601671112", "service": "fb", "text": "→ David would a simpler model just be: if we deregulate we end up with housing costing close to what the construction costs?", "timestamp": "1573783209"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121607664102", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121607664102", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Depends on the risk-reward and time frame of the landlord. A business model that works for someone does not work for everyone.", "timestamp": "1573784996"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121618307772", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121618307772", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Bill it seems to me like a world where landlords primarily make their money via property management is a lot better than one which combines that role with property speculation.
Now, land will still change in value and we can't get away from that, but there would still be plenty of people who wanted to be landlords if the job looked like \"take care of the place, line up tenants, handle concerns\"", "timestamp": "1573789551"}, {"author": "David", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121621007362", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121621007362", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman, I can't imagine a scenario in which housing costs are equal to construction costs. Why would anyone bother building? There will always be a profit motive for builders, and they will seek to charge what the market will bear.", "timestamp": "1573790962"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121624874612", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121624874612", "service": "fb", "text": "→ David I mean \"cost of construction\" in the same sense that when you go buy a new car you're paying its cost of construction. Yes, there needs to be some profit involved if it's going to be worth people's time, but we should consider that as part of the cost. That's what things look like when you allow producing however much people want.", "timestamp": "1573793481"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121624899562", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121624899562", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Really we should expect only new housing to run at the cost of construction, and older housing would be cheaper, just like used cars are cheaper than new ones.", "timestamp": "1573793524"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121654185872", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121654185872", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_George", "timestamp": "1573802343"}, {"author": "Marcus", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121674894372", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121674894372", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Seeing housing as an investment rather than as a necessity causes all sorts of troubles. It discourages policies that would lower prices, since middle class folks often borrow quite heavily on the assumption that prices will rise. It also encourages people to keep units vacant, often for years. Countries with low rates of home ownership have lower rents and higher satisfaction with housing quality.", "timestamp": "1573822264"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121676546062", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121676546062", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Peter I do like LVT though there are weird edge cases around changing the value of land https://www.jefftk.com/p/land-value-taxes-are-distortionary", "timestamp": "1573823782"}, {"author": "Eli", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121556027582&reply_comment_id=10100121760457902", "anchor": "fb-10100121556027582_10100121760457902", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff, you said \u201cit seems to me like a world where landlords primarily make their money via property management is a lot better than one which combines that role with property speculation.
Now, land will still change in value and we can't get away from that, but there would still be plenty of people who wanted to be landlords if the job looked like \"take care of the place, line up tenants, handle concerns\"
As it turns out, you can get away from that. Decommodifying the most intangible and speculative aspects of land ownership enables much greater affordability, as CLTs like Dudley Street Neighborhood Initiative are demonstrating:
\u201cIn addition to guaranteeing that the property will remain affordable in perpetuity, the 99-year ground lease allows the trust to intervene if there is a mortgage default or deferred maintenance. Nested in these long-term leases are other provisions to ensure permanent affordability, often including a preemptive purchase option that gives the land trust first dibs on the house if it goes up for sale. In that scenario, the home\u2019s price is determined by an affordability formula set below the market rate. Homeowners are allowed to recoup a set amount of value \u2014 say, 2 percent for every year they owned the house \u2014 in addition to the cost of any improvements they\u2019ve made. Because the trust owns the land, its members can provide oversight to the deals, reviewing the mortgages of those who are buying homes on the land and providing a defense against predatory lending as well as foreclosure.\u201d
https://nextcity.org/.../affordable-housings-forever...", "timestamp": "1573856935"}, {"author": "Wei_Dai", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#Xu3LJRDLu58cAmmLC", "anchor": "lw-Xu3LJRDLu58cAmmLC", "service": "lw", "text": "(Replying here even though it says \"Comment via: facebook\" because I prefer the LW platform and I don't know most of JK's Facebook friends. If that's frowned upon, please let me know.)\n
From this post, it's not clear who you are arguing against. (I checked your Facebook post and most people there seem to agree with you.) But my guess is that a lot of the reasons people give in public for their opposition to housing are not their actual reasons. Here's a paper that suggests what the real reasons may be for many: https://www.dartmouth.edu/~wfischel/Papers/00-04.PDF.\n
Abstract: An owner-occupied home is an unusual asset because it cannot be diversified among locations and because it is the only sizable asset that most owners possess. Among the uninsured risks of homeownership is devaluation by nearby changes in land use. Opponents of land-use change are called NIMBYs (\u201cNot In My Back Yard\u201d). This article submits that NIMBYism is a rational response to the uninsured risks of homeownership. It explores to the possibilities and drawbacks of providing an insurance market to cover such risks. It concludes that some progress is being made towards developing such markets.\n", "timestamp": 1573782281}, {"author": "habryka", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#T6qgEBa7J2ufkAJ7H", "anchor": "lw-T6qgEBa7J2ufkAJ7H", "service": "lw", "text": "→ I am pretty sure Jeff doesn't want people to only comment on FB, the last sentence appears to be an artifact of how crossposting with LW works. On his website the post actually says:
Comment via: facebook, lesswrong
My guess is the current flow for Jeff is: Post to his blogGo to LessWrong, grab the link from the crosspostEdit the post on his blog to include a link to LW
Not really sure how to best fix this. I've been wanting to figure out how to properly propagate edits from RSS feeds, but I haven't gotten around to that. ", "timestamp": 1573787722}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#NR4XH2MZooEhHMFH4", "anchor": "lw-NR4XH2MZooEhHMFH4", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → Yup, that's my flow!\n
I'd love it if edits in the RSS feed propagated to posts; when have typo fixes I need to do them in both places.\n
Don't want to clobber any changes made through the LW UI though. Maybe something like refreshing the post from RSS on changes, but only if there aren't local edits? Automatically merging when there's no conflict would be spiffy, but probably not worth it.\n", "timestamp": 1573799372}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#zDzNuFdaLryvXBnFH", "anchor": "lw-zDzNuFdaLryvXBnFH", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → → Though \"pull in RSS updates\" isn't the best fix for the problem that my posts here currently end with \"Comment via: facebook\". I could make a LW-specific RSS feed that didn't include that note. This would also let me filter out \"Update\" entries, which don't make sense here either.\n", "timestamp": 1573834633}, {"author": "habryka", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#fXZhkkQSPWdm8wq98", "anchor": "lw-fXZhkkQSPWdm8wq98", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → → → Well, in that case at least it would say \"Comment via facebook, LW\", which is a bit less confusing.", "timestamp": 1573859495}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#rhBHsGE64mY5d5wCs", "anchor": "lw-rhBHsGE64mY5d5wCs", "service": "lw", "text": "→ Example threads: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DavisSquare/permalink/10158024607669396/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/DavisSquare/permalink/10157968820824396/ (but please no one go jump in on them because you saw them linked here; don't want to brigade)\n
It really doesn't seem to me like they're worried about decreasing property values?\n", "timestamp": 1573799760}, {"author": "Dagon", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#JXpr8G9qcGWe3tXz3", "anchor": "lw-JXpr8G9qcGWe3tXz3", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → This doesn't contradict Wei's point, since he does include: my guess is that a lot of the reasons people give in public for their opposition to housing are not their actual reasons.
And in fact, those two facebook posts (and most NIMBYism) can be read in the "uninsured risk" light - even if they don't own land, they face risk of loss of life-quality if their now-comfortable spaces change very much.
Do you have a better approach to an ITT for those opposed to development?", "timestamp": 1573829177}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#zw78ii6fu9B9xPWke", "anchor": "lw-zw78ii6fu9B9xPWke", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → → Reading people's comments, it's very common for people opposing allowing market rate housing to object because they think it will make the area more expensive.\n", "timestamp": 1573834825}, {"author": "Kenny", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#ftCY7JkDtvFEGaGww", "anchor": "lw-ftCY7JkDtvFEGaGww", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → → → There's probably (at least) something to that idea. I imagine commercial construction is similarly constrained as residential. It's pretty common to hear that commercial rents are high in the places where residential rents are too.\n", "timestamp": 1576274277}, {"author": "Lee", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121710208602", "anchor": "fb-10100121710208602", "service": "fb", "text": "Daniel Ballard, this is an interesting conversation..
Also, Elizabeth Arnold.", "timestamp": "1573839049"}, {"author": "bendini", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#Mq3MYCAEmyLzhynPe", "anchor": "lw-Mq3MYCAEmyLzhynPe", "service": "lw", "text": "(Thoughts translated from private message)
As I've said before, if political solutions were viable then this would have been solved 5+ years ago.
Addressing the problem will require an approach that doesn't assume you can build more housing in the expensive metro areas with good jobs. While that doesn't leave many options, I can think of at least 3 that are somewhat practical:
1. Find ways to increase the quality of the average grouphouse so more people want to live in them.
2. Coordinate groups of people to move from NIMBY cities with 10/10 jobs and 10/10 house prices to YIMBY cities with 8/10 jobs but 3/10 house prices.
3. Find ways to reduce the overall cost of living that don't require someone to expend much effort per $ saved, reduce their quality of life or shift negative externalities onto someone else's balance sheet.
The project I've been running (Kernel) has been doing some research on this, and we've found potential solutions in all 3 areas. To give one example, if you found a way to increase the efficiency of a grouphouse bedroom so everything that would usually take 150ft2 can be done in 75ft2 without throwing important considerations under the bus, someone would only need to rent half as much room to maintain the same quality of life.
(Yes, I have found a way to do this. Yes, I accounted for that consideration. And that one. That one too. Yes, this is designed to bait everyone into asking questions.) ", "timestamp": 1573851654}, {"author": "ErickBall", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#goswEAkxo5mkEL6zs", "anchor": "lw-goswEAkxo5mkEL6zs", "service": "lw", "text": "→ Your solution is... a bunk bed with cabinets built in?
Squeezing everyone into college-dorm-style housing would certainly reduce living costs, but people who want that can already do it. Most don't.", "timestamp": 1573857753}, {"author": "bendini", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#7J9zwcp2kDwQ4NCKL", "anchor": "lw-7J9zwcp2kDwQ4NCKL", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → Squeezing everyone into college-dorm-style housing would certainly reduce living costs, but people who want that can already do it. Most don't.
You're right that dorm-style housing is an existing option, and most people don't want to in them for obvious reasons. However:There isn't going to be a one-size-fits all solution to high housing costs, but that's okay. Housing isn't an all or nothing problem, progress can be made on the margin. If you come up with something that gets on the front page of Hacker News and receives 500 comments saying it's the worst idea ever, but just 50 people find it works for their unique circumstances and save $200/month over the next 3 years because of it, you'll have made the problem $360,000 smaller.While I would never want to live in a PodShare, hundreds of Californians seem to think paying $1200/month to sleep in an open-plan room with 20 strangers is better than their current alternatives. The fact that this is true should indicate some *very* low hanging fruit here.Your solution is... a bunk bed with cabinets built in?
You could call it a loft bed for adults, but that doesn't tell you why anyone would want one.
It's not so much a loft bed as a system designed from first principles around the specific constraints of a freelancer aged 20-30 renting a small room (or half of a large one) inside a grouphouse. Considerations such as:PrivacyHaving somewhere for your clothes and suitcaseHaving a secure place to store valuables and sensitive documentsHaving somewhere to dry your towelHaving a romantic partner be able to stay the nightBeing able to have sex without waking up the whole houseLow ceilingsBeing able to have sex without one of you hitting their head on the ceilingNot having to crouch when walking under the bed if you're 6ft2Having a work-space that helps you to be productive Having no control over the location of sockets or lightsNot being able to change the landlord's curtainsNot being able to put any holes in the wallBeing able to bring the system with you when you move and having it fit in your new roomBeing able to build the system yourselfWithout knowing the exact dimensions of the room beforehandWith cheap and commonly available materialsWith only handyman-level skills and a few basic power toolsBeing able to cut the wood and do most of the assembly outside/in a garageBeing able to get the components through a bedroom doorwayBeing able to assemble them like an IKEA flatpack and have everything fit together correctlyHaving it look neat and precise enough that people don't assume you made it yourself", "timestamp": 1573871692}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs#xxjny8n3AsLjsXjGG", "anchor": "lw-xxjny8n3AsLjsXjGG", "service": "lw", "text": "→ Thanks for being up for having this conversation in comments! Sorry for the slow response; I just got back to proper internet after several days on an island.\n\n
As I've said before, if political solutions were viable then this would have been solved 5+ years ago.\n\n
I still think dramatic improvement is possible via the political process for two main reasons:\n\n\n
The higher rents get, the more pressure there is to fix this. While it wasn't great five years ago, it's much worse now. As terrible housing policy continues expanding the number of people it affects, it's easier to build support for measures to fix it.\n\n\n
Housing coalitions are shifting, YIMBY is growing, and the idea that we can make things better by building more is spreading.\n\n\n
I think we should continue trying to build this support.\n\n
Find ways to increase the quality of the average grouphouse so more people want to live in them. ... if you found a way to increase the efficiency of a grouphouse bedroom so everything that would usually take 150ft2 can be done in 75ft2 without throwing important considerations under the bus, someone would only need to rent half as much room to maintain the same quality of life\n\n
I think this could be a decent solution for many young relatively well off single people without kids, who live primarily digital lives. While this is a demographic we know many people in, it's only a very small slice of the people affected by the housing crisis. Separately, since different people have different preferences and constraints I suspect most people who would have the time, energy, and inclination to build something like this would actually want to customize it more for their situation. Which is fine! Your design can still be useful even if most builders use it as a jumping-off point; you don't need interchangeable parts.\n
If people really did have generally similar preferences here you could build this in your apartment, and then when you moved you could sell it to the incoming tenant and leave it there. But if you actually tried this, even in a city like SF with tons of people in the target demographic, I expect pretty much everyone would ask you to bring it with you, even if you offered it for free. Similarly, if this were a large improvement over the kinds of loft systems you can already buy from IKEA I would expect you to be able to sell these to the general public, but again I don't think it would be very popular.\n\n
Coordinate groups of people to move from NIMBY cities with 10/10 jobs and 10/10 house prices to YIMBY cities with 8/10 jobs but 3/10 house prices.\n\n
I think this is likely to lose too much of what people value about being in those cities.\n
I'm also not sure where you're getting \"8/10 jobs\"; I think the benefits of being in the top city for your field are usually much higher than 25%, more like 50% to 300%.\n", "timestamp": 1574045932}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482", "service": "fb", "text": "Aren't there other greater Boston areas that have affordable rents now? As someone above mentioned, what's wrong with Somerville getting more expensive and people moving to a poorer neighborhood? I guess I don't see why we have to always advocate for increased urban density or for a particular desirable place to change in ways that make it less desirable (as shown by market prices) rather than changing undesirable places to become desirable.", "timestamp": "1573857982"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482&reply_comment_id=10100121928067012", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482_10100121928067012", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Christopher nitpicking just one part of your comment (\"as shown by market others prices\"):
decreased market prices wouldn't show the place is less desirable
Price is a matter of supply and demand
Demand is related to desirability
If you increase supply and hold demand constant, price will go down.
Of course yes, demand might change too if you relax zoning. Could go down (or up). The price change doesn't tell you.", "timestamp": "1573902739"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482&reply_comment_id=10100121979753432", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482_10100121979753432", "service": "fb", "text": "→ People having to move away from their friends and relatives is harmful, as are longer commutes", "timestamp": "1573929037"}, {"author": "Eli", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482&reply_comment_id=10100121986425062", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482_10100121986425062", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Christopher people paying over a third or over half their monthly income in rent is unsustainable anywhere, even if they have higher-earning jobs. In addition to the difficulty this poses for other necessary expenses, (food, healthcare, childcare, etc.) it also means they can\u2019t save as much or put more dollars into the local economy. Folks are getting priced out all over greater Boston.", "timestamp": "1573931947"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482&reply_comment_id=10100122105775882", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482_10100122105775882", "service": "fb", "text": "→ So expand the question from Somerville to Greater Boston -- why do people need to live and work in greater Boston, per se? Let second and third tier cities with lower cost of living, better commutes, more affordable housing, where friends can all live together attract residents. America has plenty of such cities. I'd rather have a dozen or two places that can become what is attractive about present-day Somerville rather than convert current Somerville to something different. There's a lot I like about greater Boston, but my takeaway is that I want more places to be become like it, rather than make it change to so more people can be there.
Jeff's problem of friends moving away is very personal; I understand and share the desire to have friends live nearby, but it doesn't seem a good policy metric for neighborhood development planning. And there are other, less intrusive methods to achieve that goal (e.g. personally subsidize rent of friends whom you want to live near you)", "timestamp": "1573969340"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482&reply_comment_id=10100122110975462", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482_10100122110975462", "service": "fb", "text": "→ \"why do people need to live and work in greater Boston, per se? Let second and third tier cities with lower cost of living, better commutes, more affordable housing, where friends can all live together attract residents.\"
I wrote a response to this here:
https://www.jefftk.com/p/let-people-move-to-jobs", "timestamp": "1573974199"}, {"author": "Ofer", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482&reply_comment_id=10100122153130982", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482_10100122153130982", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Several reasons. One thing you neglect is that Camrbidge and Somerville *depend* on being accessible to diverse new people moving in, to remain the desirable places they are. You're implying that if we don't build lots of new housing, things will just stay the same, and don't seem aware that you're choosing between two different kinds of significant change. The change you argue for - letting everything become super expensive - is both the *more* radical change, *and* the one with a worse result. So the question shouldn't be \"who not let this bad thing happen\", it should be \"why do you prefer it so much?\" But I think lying behind your neglect of this aspect, and your implication, may be simple lack of awareness. You may just not notice how critically important it is for a place like this to be accessible to a diverse set of new people on a constant basis.", "timestamp": "1574009879"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100121525049662?comment_id=10100121762663482&reply_comment_id=10100122274138482", "anchor": "fb-10100121762663482_10100122274138482", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman I think there is a lot more to why employees prefer a location than simply the professional opportunities, and those preferences can be used to attract employees to locations away from Boston. And 2nd tier cities could easily become centers for specific industries. There are thousands of industries, plenty to go around.
And while current employees in Boston of LA won't necessarily want to move to Pittsburg, that's because current employees already were selected for current locations. My brother moved to Pittsburg, he works in tech, and he likes it there. He doesn't want to move to a major urban area. And Pittsburg is actually ranked very high in terms of places to live. So Pittsburg is a great example of a 2nd or 3rd tier city that is actually doing quite well along the lines that I am suggesting, even though maybe the people you know from Boston or SF would not want to move there.
There's a lot of fudge in this, and a lot of it has to do with what motivates people and what people believe will happen. I think if we promote a message that you can start an industry in affordable 2nd tier cities and have a great life there, that will be better for Somerville (and the cities) in the long run than increasing population density in an area of the country that is already very dense, and helps keep the US a more egalitarian nation rather than over-concentrating wealth and jobs in very small geographic regions where resources with hard limits (like land) make wealth disparities even more jarring.", "timestamp": "1574076266"}]}