{"items": [{"author": "Josh", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115569923782", "anchor": "fb-10100115569923782", "service": "fb", "text": "I listen to a podcast by a guy whose main thing is workplace safety, but who gave a talk at the Velocity conference a couple of years ago about robustness and reliability and similarities between the fields of safety and technical development / operations. He talks a lot about how safety isn't about preventing failures, it's about having the capacity to fail safely. Highly recommended if you're into this kind of thing: https://preaccidentpodcast.podbean.com", "timestamp": "1570890481"}, {"author": "Ursula", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115578855882", "anchor": "fb-10100115578855882", "service": "fb", "text": "Additionally, SSI and SSDI have extreme income and asset caps that don't allow many folks to make the investments/changes to make power outages potentially safe for them. It's something like $2k savings and income can only be $1180/month I think for ssdi", "timestamp": "1570894949"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115578855882&reply_comment_id=10100115583272032", "anchor": "fb-10100115578855882_10100115583272032", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Ursula yeah, asset caps are especially bad policy", "timestamp": "1570896870"}, {"author": "Kate", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115578855882&reply_comment_id=10100115684469232", "anchor": "fb-10100115578855882_10100115684469232", "service": "fb", "text": "→ In Ohio the SSDI work cap is about $800/month :/", "timestamp": "1570939779"}, {"author": "Lisa", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115578855882&reply_comment_id=10100116116223992", "anchor": "fb-10100115578855882_10100116116223992", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Same cap in RI, and also $2000 cash/savings max.", "timestamp": "1571042013"}, {"author": "Ella", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115579948692", "anchor": "fb-10100115579948692", "service": "fb", "text": "The other consideration is the overall economic cost of each test. How much food is spoiled? How many people stay home to care for children who are not in school? How many days of business revenue are lost? The food spoilage side strikes me particularly hard. I\u2019d lose a lot of prepped meals from my freezer, or have to work pretty hard to preserve it. I wonder if we\u2019ll ever get a number for the economic cost of the California blackout?", "timestamp": "1570895204"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282", "service": "fb", "text": "How far are we from using onsite micro-generation with modest energy storage to overcome these problems?", "timestamp": "1570897613"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115585722122", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115585722122", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Peter pretty far, in that almost no residential solar works when the grid is down?", "timestamp": "1570898000"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115586979602", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115586979602", "service": "fb", "text": "→ But it\u2019s not hard to set it up to do so, it just costs a bit more.", "timestamp": "1570898779"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115591425692", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115591425692", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman I guess I meant modest onsite storage, such as a home battery that could supply a day or three worth of that home's power use, with capacity depending on likelihood, frequency, and duration of outages (as best predicted).
This topic is of great interest, as we will soon have a family member whose life depends on constant function of an electrical device. We just had our home electrical panel replaced for other reasons, and asked about adding the ability to have a generator backup system. I was thinking like 1-2 outlets in the house, where I could go outside, fire up a generator, and have it feed those designated outlets. The $20k I was quoted was more for an auto-start whole home system that kicks on by itself.
Each critical medical device also has it's own built-in battery, with about 4-6 hours of runtime. Realistically, we live close enough to the hospital that our emergency power outage plan will likely be to go to the hospital (which has a campus power backup system, which we have seen work a couple of times.)", "timestamp": "1570901154"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115723990032", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115723990032", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I\u2019d say we\u2019re there, if you have some extra money and planning ability. The fact that your medical devices already have 4 to 6 hours onsite backup means that you need only buy another set of battery packs, keep them charged, and know how to swap them in, to have 8 to 12 hours. But contrariwise, most outages are much shorter, and 4 to 6 hours gives you plenty of time to evacuate to a power-secure location.", "timestamp": "1570970606"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115724753502", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115724753502", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Neil yes, the key-word is \u201cisland-mode\u201d. But microgen or storage is still more expensive than grid power, so it is important to prioritize your power use so you don\u2019t buy more backup than you *really* need.", "timestamp": "1570971016"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115905636012", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115905636012", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Yes, the built-in batteries in each device should give us adequate time to relocate to the hospital, which has substantial backup power capacity. Haven't tested yet, but I suspect I could carry him and his gear on foot through substantial snow in less than half that time.
Where LOTS of people's emergency plan consists of [relocate to medical facility], that must also require a lot of coordinating with ambulance systems; many of us could transport in private vehicles, but others would need ambulances, and if there are hundreds who have that need simultaneously, during an emergency which might also otherwise tax ambulance services, that all sounds like a severe bottleneck.", "timestamp": "1571001395"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115907986302", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115907986302", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Peter walking through the snow sounds really hard. And you would leave for the hospital when the battery hit 50% if the power was still out?
Some sort of generator at your house, just a regular ~$500 one with a long extension cord, sounds much better than that.", "timestamp": "1571001832"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100115955575932", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100115955575932", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Peter Speak with your local police and fire departments; they may already have a plan for evacuation. They may even have a registry of people who have special evacuation needs, and be able to assist. Then you will know what best to do for your family, at your location.", "timestamp": "1571016085"}, {"author": "Peter", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115585143282&reply_comment_id=10100116572314982", "anchor": "fb-10100115585143282_10100116572314982", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I was insufficiently clear: our still-to-be-finalized emergency plan will include steps like driving ourselves 5mi to the hospital, and asking friends, and calling ambulances, long before a last resort like walking. And a portable generator might be part of that plan. I was only getting at the idea that foot travel is actually an option, even in adverse conditions, which is very fortunate for us.", "timestamp": "1571264336"}, {"author": "Katie", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115588501552", "anchor": "fb-10100115588501552", "service": "fb", "text": "And then there is an arsonist. Pissed off about the electricity being cut off? Brilliant solution. Kill people, destroy their homes, the land. My best friend was told to evacuate, then not, then maybe. Then the wind changed and they are okay for now. But this fire, they believe, was set. How can someone be that messed up?", "timestamp": "1570899501"}, {"author": "Taymon", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952", "service": "fb", "text": "What's the claim about what's going on with the California outages?", "timestamp": "1570900385"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115591340862", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115591340862", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I'm not sure what your question is?", "timestamp": "1570901141"}, {"author": "Taymon", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115591435672", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115591435672", "service": "fb", "text": "→ What's the ostensible political motivation?", "timestamp": "1570901159"}, {"author": "Jacob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115591440662", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115591440662", "service": "fb", "text": "→ It's unclear whether the outages are actually needed to reduce fire risk or whether they're excessive as a scare tactic.", "timestamp": "1570901163"}, {"author": "Taymon", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115591470602", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115591470602", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Scaring who into doing what?", "timestamp": "1570901182"}, {"author": "Jacob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115591490562", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115591490562", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Politicians/voters into not demanding more concessions of PG&E.", "timestamp": "1570901213"}, {"author": "Taymon", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115591590362", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115591590362", "service": "fb", "text": "→ That seems weird. The primary effect seems to have been to make everyone angry at PG&E.", "timestamp": "1570901267"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115592633272", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115592633272", "service": "fb", "text": "→ It sounds to me like after PG&E was found liable for the Camp Fire they're responding by trying to pressure the government into not having them be liable (\"if we're liable then we just can't take the risk of operating on dry days with high-wind\") instead of doing things to reduce the risk of fires (clearing brush).
It doesn't look like it worked, though, since as you say people are mostly mad at PG&E and not buying the \"this was necessary for safety\" claim.", "timestamp": "1570901685"}, {"author": "Ross", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115595427672", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115595427672", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Shouldn't they just not offer electricity in places where it can't (or they don't want to) do it safely? Isn't land use the underlying problem not electricity politics? (Of course land use is political)", "timestamp": "1570902941"}, {"author": "Jess", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115598042432", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115598042432", "service": "fb", "text": "→ What's the argument that PG&E is lying? It doesn't seem that implausible to me that the additional liability is not worth the maximum rate for electricity that they are allowed to charge.", "timestamp": "1570904092"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115606091302", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115606091302", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Ross isn't that what they're claiming to be doing? Not offering electricity in places and times where they can't do it safely?", "timestamp": "1570907283"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115606355772", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115606355772", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jess not so much that they're lying, but that their choices are primarily about what will convince the government to change the rules so that they're be longer liable?", "timestamp": "1570907358"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115606460562", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115606460562", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I really don't know much about whether the outage was the right choice", "timestamp": "1570907379"}, {"author": "Ross", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115606680122", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115606680122", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman yes but it would be preferable to inform people before they built the house that they were going to have low quality electric service. Maybe they would think twice about building there (or could be encouraged to do so)", "timestamp": "1570907436"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115648690932", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115648690932", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman that\u2019s quite reasonable; there was no right choice. You correctly observe that 100% reliability for all customers is not affordable. So the challenge is to identofy those few customers that need 100% reliability, select the engineering solution that works for each of those customers, then figure out how to pay for it. Insurance coverage for backup medical power is a good idea, but who then buys the fuel, changes the oil, and turns it on when needed? Another good idea is to have a plan to evacuate the customer to a nursing home that has backup power; the occasional need for medical transport would be much cheaper than the capital cost of backup generators.", "timestamp": "1570922968"}, {"author": "Katie", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115842143252", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115842143252", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Bill Not in this location, but just south, where there are fires raging (my best friend had her car packed to evacuate; they had gone door to door to inform people), in that case, all the evacuation centers were full to capacity. So just speaking to the idea of planning evacuation of people with medical needs, that might be easier said than done.", "timestamp": "1570977119"}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115844423682", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115844423682", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Katie yes, there needs to be a plan in advance for those with medical needs, either for proactive evacuation, for shelter in place with onsite backup, or for import of backup generators. different people may have different needs.", "timestamp": "1570977670"}, {"author": "Katie", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115589798952&reply_comment_id=10100115844743042", "anchor": "fb-10100115589798952_10100115844743042", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Bill From what I have read, no plans of any kind were addressed during this black out. I hope I am wrong. A lot of people have, as you say, different medical needs. Most people do best to stay home, for all those reasons that we all like to be home, but more so if you have medical needs. I don't know what it would take to target those people with generators. Or, of course, good solar power. They have a lot of sun in CA!", "timestamp": "1570977972"}, {"author": "g.lesswrong@bemused.org", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#hXKtCEhkwnkaa77ZN", "anchor": "lw-hXKtCEhkwnkaa77ZN", "service": "lw", "text": "Interesting insight - could you explain why you think they are dubious and politically motivated ? Thks\n", "timestamp": 1570900730}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#dkAbSr9S7arzbWGY6", "anchor": "lw-dkAbSr9S7arzbWGY6", "service": "lw", "text": "→ I haven't looked into it fully, but it sounds to me like after PG&E was found liable for the Camp Fire they're responding by trying to pressure the government into not having them be liable (\"if we're liable then we just can't take the risk of operating on dry days with high-wind\") instead of doing things to reduce the risk of fires (clearing brush).\n", "timestamp": 1570901566}, {"author": "Dee", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115600622262", "anchor": "fb-10100115600622262", "service": "fb", "text": "Absolutely - we should move from power grids to Tesla power walls and solar also as an alternative", "timestamp": "1570905107"}, {"author": "Evan", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115600622262&reply_comment_id=10100115921459302", "anchor": "fb-10100115600622262_10100115921459302", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Power walls can certainly handle the day/night cycle, but what's the solution to the fact that solar power produces a lot more electricity in the summer than in the winter?", "timestamp": "1571008282"}, {"author": "Liron", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#vrEEyC2rYP8Ghsxtg", "anchor": "lw-vrEEyC2rYP8Ghsxtg", "service": "lw", "text": "Good point about everyone needing to have backup plans for power outages.\n
Another observation is: It\u2019s crazy that few people were aware that an outage would be happening with elevated probability until the day of. It probably would have avoided $1B in marginal lost productivity to have proper communication.\n", "timestamp": 1570916724}, {"author": "Stuart Anderson", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#zTNdf2Kjfk67s6t3z", "anchor": "lw-zTNdf2Kjfk67s6t3z", "service": "lw", "text": "If you are going to face a problem without a utility then regardless of any other party's responsibilities there you need to have your own contingencies in place.
I am in AU and we have laws governing this kind of thing. You inform the power co of the situation and they instantly have a legal liability if your power goes out. I don't know the particulars of their implementations, but having been in business and having an equivalent legal liability I didn't screw around in those situations. I wasn't going to be going to jail for manslaughter, and I can't see anyone else in that position being interested in that either.
Quite aside from necessity, I'm also of the opinion that convenience is worth planning for. I don't want to deal with blackouts, planned or otherwise. Solar power is incredibly common here, and battery banks are a thing if you want that. I only have my server on UPS, but my power supply is also rock solid (again, AU is massively culturally different to US, and corporate conduct and public expectations around it are far more stringent than the buffoonery common in US). The sorts of things that take out the power (rarely) are things like storms, which are acts of God that nobody can do anything about.", "timestamp": 1570938564}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#unTeEcXpiHpgPEdiH", "anchor": "lw-unTeEcXpiHpgPEdiH", "service": "lw", "text": "→ \n
You inform the power co of the situation and they instantly have a legal liability if your power goes out.\n\n
Do you know more about how this works, or know where I could read about it? Searching online I wasn't able to find anyone talking about the system or consumer-facing docs on how to notify the power company and what to expect if you do.\n
Does it cover damage from natural disasters? Flooding, wind, earthquakes?\n", "timestamp": 1570967979}, {"author": "Stuart Anderson", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#6kfGzLzWkTcYafPFc", "anchor": "lw-6kfGzLzWkTcYafPFc", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → In the best tradition of bureaucracy, it's more complicated that in first appears.
In AU the phrase you need to search against is *essential medical equipment*. The wording and responsibilities are left deliberately vague. It is safe to say that this is as much for pragmatic reasons as legal ones, as many situations will be different. A person living in the middle of a city is going to be very different to one living regionally or in the bush (memes about AU aside, yes, we do legitimately have plenty of places in this land that are out to kill you. There's always some part of the country in drought, on fire, or underwater, year round, without fail).
The energy company has a direct requirement to not cut you off and to inform you of any works when you inform them that you have essential medical equipment at the premises (which requires a form with parts filled out by your doctor). The tricky part is that they would have an indirect obligation under manslaughter/negligence laws should the customer not have alternatives to their supply in the event of failure (and it is very much in their interests to ensure that the customer does have backup because they're fully liable until they do). Of course the energy company is going to try to fob their liability off onto some other party ASAP. Nobody wants that hot potato.
This is a two part issue from the perspective of the energy company:
1. Criminal liability. Nobody wants to deal with that, ever. AU isn't like America (for example) and you can't buy your way out of a conviction/sentence.
Any time someone is injured or killed by misadventure the cops will get involved, then the DPP gets involved, and depending on how egregious/public it is then the media and government do, and then you're fucked. All of those groups have an incentive to scalp you. Much better to take the time to ensure that never happens.
2. Financial liability. This is ultimately an actuarial question. If the company fucks up, how much is it going to cost them?
The first instance above, at least in my experience, is a total showstopper. Every meeting I've ever had with management involving them wanting to do/not do something that could have landed me in jail resulted in me turning around and saying "No, we are not doing that. I'm not going to go to jail for you". Followed by me saying "Here's what we're going to do" and then me laying it out. There's times when you indulge management bullshit and there's times when you tell them to STFU and do as they're told. Potential liability always falls into the latter camp.
In the second instance above it is more complicated. The fact is that at a certain number of customers it becomes a matter of when you will be fucked over, not if. Whilst there's certainly a lot of technical and logistical work to be done to minimise risk at a certain point it becomes a question for your lawyers and the actuaries at your insurer. Even if you put everything into safety you can it is still just a matter of time.", "timestamp": 1571455010}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#o7YXBMcbPzdo2c2Tx", "anchor": "lw-o7YXBMcbPzdo2c2Tx", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → → I found https://www.energymadeeasy.gov.au/sites/default/files/1519_AER Life Support DL Brochure_D02.pdf which seems to say:\n\n\n
You're responsible for figuring out backup power for your medical equipment\n\n\n
If you register with your utility they have to notify you before they turn off your power, but unexpected outages can still happen.\n\n\n
This doesn't sound that different from most countries? And sounds much less strict that you were describing.\n
Registering looks like visiting https://www.synergy.net.au/Your-home/Manage-account/Register-for-life-support or the equivalent for your utility.\n
I also found https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/a4094ca5-dc6a-4dfb-bbe7-8aa9a3baa831/Life-Support-rule-change-RRC0009-Final-Rule-For-Publication.pdf which gives what I think are the full rules with obligations for retailers and distributors, which doesn't change my understanding from above. The only way it looks like this would have been different in Australia is that the power company would have been required to give more notice.\n", "timestamp": 1571518811}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#H8MXnbF5xCvourFzT", "anchor": "lw-H8MXnbF5xCvourFzT", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → → → Specifically, they talk about: \"retailer planned interruptions\", \"distributor planned interruptions\", and \"unplanned interruptions\". And then they say:\n\n\n
The retailer can't intentionally turn off the power except by following the rules for \"retailer planned interruptions\", which include \"4 business days written notice\".\n\n\n
Same for the distributor, for \"distributor planned interruptions\"\n\n\n
I'm having trouble finding the official rules, but I found an example commercial contract (https://www.essentialenergy.com.au/-/media/Project/EssentialEnergy/Website/Files/Our-Network/AERApprovedDeemedHV.pdf?la=en&hash=FA1892961DBA269D0B82E2416991FF9FDFAE25DD) which has:\n\n
12.2 Distributor planned interruptions (maintenance, repair, etc)\n
12.2.a We may make distributor planned interruptions to the supply of Energy to the Premises for the following purposes:\n
12.2.a.i for the maintenance, repair or augmentation of the Transmission System or the Distribution System, including maintenance of metering equipment; or\n
12.2.a.ii for the installation of a New Connection or a Connection Alteration to another Customer.\n
12.2.b If your Energy supply will be affected by a distributor planned interruption and clause 6.4(d)(iii) does not apply:\n
12.2.b.i we may seek your explicit consent to the Interruption occurring on a specified date; or\n
12.2.b.ii we may seek your explicit consent to the Interruption occurring on any day within a specified 5 Business Day range; or\n
12.2.b.iii otherwise, we will give you at least 4 Business Days notice of the Interruption by mail, letterbox drop, press advertisement or other appropriate means, or as specified in the Operating Protocol for your Premises.\n
12.3 Unplanned Interruptions\n
12.3.a We may interrupt the supply of Energy to your Premises in circumstances where we consider that a Customer\u2019s Energy installation or the Distribution System poses an immediate threat of injury or material damage to any person, property or the Distribution System, including:\n
12.3.a.i for unplanned maintenance or repairs; or\n
12.3.a.ii for health or safety reasons; or\n
12.3.a.iii in an Emergency; or\n
12.3.a.iv as required by a Relevant Authority; or\n
12.3.a.v to shed demand for Energy because the total demand at the relevant time exceeds the total supply available; or\n
12.3.a.vi to restore supply to a Customer.\n
12.3.b If an Unplanned Interruption is made, we will use our best endeavours to restore Energy supply to the Premises as soon as possible.\n
12.3.c We will make information about Unplanned Interruptions (including the nature of any Emergency and, where reasonably possible, an estimate of when Energy supply will be restored) available on a 24 hour telephone information service.\n\n
So it sounds like a shutdown like the one in CA, being for safety reasons (preventing sparking a fire) might qualify under the rules for unplanned interruptions, and so not require any notice at all.\n", "timestamp": 1571519909}, {"author": "Bill", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100115725302402", "anchor": "fb-10100115725302402", "service": "fb", "text": "Interesting topic, Jeff. My profession is power engineering, and distributed generation with local storage is what I hope to be doing (if I can translate my skills from centralized generation...)", "timestamp": "1570971254"}, {"author": "ChristianKl", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#JMyn5HbXSFG2DRbmP", "anchor": "lw-JMyn5HbXSFG2DRbmP", "service": "lw", "text": "Backup power supplies are going to be good for a given amount of time. How do you plan to regulate how much of an outage should be possible to buffer with backup energy generation?", "timestamp": 1571039522}, {"author": "Lisa", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100115566775092?comment_id=10100116116184072", "anchor": "fb-10100116116184072", "service": "fb", "text": "Most insulins are good for 30 days outside the fridge. I'm not quite sure how to do the math for how many months it would last for how long it was out of the fridge, and what the ambient temperature is. but it's not like it would spoil in a few hours.", "timestamp": "1571041846"}, {"author": "Dagon", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#zMKj75amvNro6433X", "anchor": "lw-zMKj75amvNro6433X", "service": "lw", "text": "I agree that power outages kill, in a statistical sense: some will die without A/C, some will eat bad food, etc. I disagree that humans have no responsibility over their own safety and health. Almost all services are provided on a best-efforts basis. Police aren't liable if a known criminal attacks you. FDA isn't liable for denying you a life-saving drug. Insurance companies aren't (despite appearances) money machines - any additional benefit comes with increased premiums, and they're pretty much never liable for your suffering.
You can argue that (some of) the current California outages are negligent or are negligently handled (not enough notice or assistance to those whose health is impacted). Courts can sort that out, slowly and usually in favor of the more expensive legal team.
In the meantime, if you need power, you need to have enough backup to be able to survive an outage, and to travel somewhere safer if it lasts too long. Whether insurance covers it is a separate issue, unrelated to your ultimate responsibility for yourself.
", "timestamp": 1571074389}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#aJWr9nq2Fxa2iE3sN", "anchor": "lw-aJWr9nq2Fxa2iE3sN", "service": "lw", "text": "→ Where do you read me as saying \"humans have no responsibility over their own safety and health\"?\n", "timestamp": 1571076743}, {"author": "Dagon", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#nzymRnKFq3qxTTSiH", "anchor": "lw-nzymRnKFq3qxTTSiH", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → Where do you read me as saying "humans have no responsibility over their own safety and health"?
I read the passive voice in your recommendations about insurance and top-down testing as an indication that you don't think the primary responsibility for preparedness is in individuals. The lack of any recommendation for individual action (have batteries, test and replace them annually, consider whether to leave the area for long-term disruptions) is another data point toward this reading. I apologize if I misunderstood your intent.", "timestamp": 1571084308}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#9P24rCyfACYxZQouj", "anchor": "lw-9P24rCyfACYxZQouj", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → → I think individuals should take steps to be more prepared, and the main reason they don't is that the grid's reliability falls into an awkward valley where it's reliable enough that you think you can count on it but not so reliable that you should. Planned outages would help fix this, and I expect people would respond by planning.\n", "timestamp": 1571135248}, {"author": "JohnBuridan", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#TX5X22f43iyyP5E3u", "anchor": "lw-TX5X22f43iyyP5E3u", "service": "lw", "text": "You will be disappointed to learn that the electric companies all around the United States have little incentive to care about their poles leading to residential areas, because those areas use half as much power as industrial customers. So outages of a few hours after every thunderstorm are pretty common in Midwestern cities.", "timestamp": 1571085832}, {"author": "JohnBuridan", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#WaXf5SPTAcGLEqESr", "anchor": "lw-WaXf5SPTAcGLEqESr", "service": "lw", "text": "→ And yes, our society is woefully unprepared to go more than two hours without power. I really think we should be prepared for five days at all times (not that I am, but just saying). To prepare for such things would be massively expensive and radically change communities if they had to undergo regular stress tests lasting 12 hours or so.", "timestamp": 1571086074}, {"author": "gwern", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#hRBXgDzvMNFJkAdzL", "anchor": "lw-hRBXgDzvMNFJkAdzL", "service": "lw", "text": "\n
There's an awkward valley between \"reasonably reliable, but with a major outage every few years in a storm or something\" and \"completely reliable, and you can trust your life on it\" where the system is reliable enough that we stop thinking of it as something that might go away but it's not so reliable that we should.\n\n
Apropos of my other comment on SRE/complex system failure applications to writing/math, this is a known practice: if a service is too reliable for a time and has exceeded its promised 'error budget', it will be deliberately taken down to make sure the promised number of errors happen.\n
From ch4\n\n
An SLO is a service level objective: a target value or range of values for a service level that is measured by an SLI. A natural structure for SLOs is thus SLI \u2264 target, or lower bound \u2264 SLI \u2264 upper bound. For example, we might decide that we will return Shakespeare search results \"quickly,\" adopting an SLO that our average search request latency should be less than 100 milliseconds...Choosing and publishing SLOs to users sets expectations about how a service will perform. This strategy can reduce unfounded complaints to service owners about, for example, the service being slow. Without an explicit SLO, users often develop their own beliefs about desired performance, which may be unrelated to the beliefs held by the people designing and operating the service. This dynamic can lead to both over-reliance on the service, when users incorrectly believe that a service will be more available than it actually is (as happened with Chubby: see \"The Global Chubby Planned Outage\"), and under-reliance, when prospective users believe a system is flakier and less reliable than it actually is.\n\n
\"The Global Chubby Planned Outage\"\n
[Written by Marc Alvidrez]\n
Chubby [Bur06] is Google\u2019s lock service for loosely coupled distributed systems. In the global case, we distribute Chubby instances such that each replica is in a different geographical region. Over time, we found that the failures of the global instance of Chubby consistently generated service outages, many of which were visible to end users. As it turns out, true global Chubby outages are so infrequent that service owners began to add dependencies to Chubby assuming that it would never go down. Its high reliability provided a false sense of security because the services could not function appropriately when Chubby was unavailable, however rarely that occurred.\n
The solution to this Chubby scenario is interesting: SRE makes sure that global Chubby meets, but does not significantly exceed, its service level objective. In any given quarter, if a true failure has not dropped availability below the target, a controlled outage will be synthesized by intentionally taking down the system. In this way, we are able to flush out unreasonable dependencies on Chubby shortly after they are added. Doing so forces service owners to reckon with the reality of distributed systems sooner rather than later.\n\n
...Don\u2019t overachieve:\n
Users build on the reality of what you offer, rather than what you say you\u2019ll supply, particularly for infrastructure services. If your service\u2019s actual performance is much better than its stated SLO, users will come to rely on its current performance. You can avoid over-dependence by deliberately taking the system offline occasionally (Google\u2019s Chubby service introduced planned outages in response to being overly available),18 throttling some requests, or designing the system so that it isn\u2019t faster under light loads.\n\n", "timestamp": 1571103923}, {"author": "jkaufman", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#az3uawNPH7B2WnFwP", "anchor": "lw-az3uawNPH7B2WnFwP", "service": "lw", "text": "→ Thanks! Chubby planned outages were in fact one of the things I was thinking about in writing this, but I hadn't known that it was public outside Google.\n", "timestamp": 1571530902}, {"author": "gwern", "source_link": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE#KYmmZFGamshtaFRJw", "anchor": "lw-KYmmZFGamshtaFRJw", "service": "lw", "text": "→ → (Quite a lot is public outside Google, I've found. It's not necessarily easy to find, but whenever I talk to Googlers or visit, I find out less than I expected. Only a few things I've been told genuinely surprised me, and honestly, I suspected them anyway. Google's transparency is considerably underrated.)\n", "timestamp": 1576101682}]}