{"items": [{"author": "Kiran", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747651742", "anchor": "fb-10100099747651742", "service": "fb", "text": "Impressive.", "timestamp": "1561780146"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342", "service": "fb", "text": "Couple of other things...
(1) There's immense pressure to attend expensive private colleges in the US
(2) Public schools that aren't sports-focused are awesome and can offer for $5000/yr what private schools charge $50,000 per year for. See also: CUNY and SUNY
(3) Why is need-based aid so terrible? What's wrong with some rich foreign student carrying 5 or 10 needy American students?

I'd propose going the other direction, increasing funding for public schools, and making 4-yr schools cheap or even free, as many states did in the 60s. Save money by not fighting expensive wars everywhere, not incarcerating 1% of the adult US population, etc and so forth.", "timestamp": "1561780382"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099771778392", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099771778392", "service": "fb", "text": "→ \"Why is need-based aid so terrible?\"

What did I write that made you think it's terrible? I think need-based aid has a large effect in raising sticker prices, but I think it's beneficial on balance.", "timestamp": "1561811597"}, {"author": "Emily", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099781274362", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099781274362", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I'd be inclined to say that the implementation of need based aid is what's terrible. They use a system to determine your eligibility that rules only a very small number of students eligible so that there isn't as much money to be paid out. But basically students whose families are above poverty line, regardless of how much over that line, are ineligible for this aid despite the price of schools still being unaffordable for the family, for example.

It's a problem also that the most expensive schools are deemed the most quality, as per Jeff's initial post, because this still perpetuates those who are ineligible for need based aid (as for example I was) to attend less expensive (\"less prestigious\") programs (as I did) and still start with fewer opportunities than those who forked up either cash or loan cash for more expensive programs.

Many rich foreign students are also eligible for full scholarships depending on their country of origin as well, so I definitely went to school with Rich kids from poor countries who were paying nothing to be at my school", "timestamp": "1561817759"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099786893102", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099786893102", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Emily \"basically students whose families are above poverty line, regardless of how much over that line, are ineligible for this aid despite the price of schools still being unaffordable for the family\"

This doesn't sound right to me, at least for the fancy schools that promise to meet 100% of demonstrated financial need. My family wasn't below the poverty line, but I still got substantial need-based aid that I wouldn't have been able to attend Swarthmore without.

The College Board has a calculator where you can get an estimate of how much need-based aid you would get at a school. I just tried this for Swarthmore [1] for a family of four where the parents are earning $50k each, the older child is applying to college and the younger child is in high school. I had the parents having $5k in cash, $5k in investments, and owning a $500k home they purchases in 2012 and where they paid $300k and still owe $200k on the mortgage. I put the student down as having no income or assets, and as planning to live on campus. [2]

From a sticker price of $71k they estimate financial aid of $60k, leaving $7k for the parents and $2k for the student.

There are cases where what the college thinks you can pay isn't a good fit for what you actually can pay. For example, I had a friend whose parents were divorced and one parent refused to provide their income/assets, which the college then treated as an incomplete application and denied aid. But in the normal case of parents providing full information it looks to me like it's pretty reasonable.

[1] https://npc.collegeboard.org/app/swarthmore/start

[2] https://npc.collegeboard.org/app/swarthmore...", "timestamp": "1561820299"}, {"author": "Emily", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099788270342", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099788270342", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman it's also possible, I guess, that my parents lied to me regarding what the results of my FAFSA etc were, or manipulated them to try to influence where I could go to school. Or that my parents had more money in assets than they let on in having, I don't know", "timestamp": "1561821063"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099790485902", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099790485902", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I definitely don't remember Swat offering middle-class students scholarships that are 6/7 of attendance cost in the late 90s/early 2000s. This also can't be guaranteed in future, since we don't know what the equities in their endowment fund will do. Another 2008 and this type of aid will evaporate for 5 years or so.

Also, most private schools don't have as large an endowment as Swarthmore, so this kind of opportunity is only available to very few students. Better to treat it as an outlier (similar to Cooper Union prior to 2008) and concentrate on making public universities good and affordable. Private business is seldom the solution to that kind of problem...

See endowments below. Maybe 50 private schools can afford to do what Swat does:
https://www.collegeraptor.com/.../det.../EndowmentPerStudent", "timestamp": "1561822956"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099792571722", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099792571722", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Emily another possibility is that the school you were going to was one that couldn't afford as much need based financial need", "timestamp": "1561823346"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099792616632", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099792616632", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman -- most schools can't. See link above. Swarthmore is not the norm for private schools.

We need more states like NY, where 4-year public school attendance ranges from $7000/yr tuition to free (with family incomes < $120000, no asset test).", "timestamp": "1561823388"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099793060742", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099793060742", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Andrew I agree most schools can't afford to offer this much financial aid.

On the other hand, even a relatively cheap public school still has a very high cost in terms of years of people's lives, and if we can have a society where fewer people need to pay that cost that's really valuable.", "timestamp": "1561823690"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099793434992", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099793434992", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman -- have you thought about having more undergrad + professional combined programs for those who want/need higher education? In much of Europe, med school or law school is something you do out of high school for 5-6 years. Even in some states (TX, MA) there are combined undergrad/medical programs that last 6-7 years.", "timestamp": "1561823864"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747851342&reply_comment_id=10100099946089072", "anchor": "fb-10100099747851342_10100099946089072", "service": "fb", "text": "→ David Yamanishi -- one reason why I want to stay in NY and raise a family. I want my family to benefit from good, old-fashioned socialist economic policies.", "timestamp": "1561919299"}, {"author": "Cullyn", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747946152", "anchor": "fb-10100099747946152", "service": "fb", "text": "What do you think about income-driven loan repayment programs? I found this aligned my incentives and need quite well at HLS, for the most part.", "timestamp": "1561780438"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099747946152&reply_comment_id=10100099771668612", "anchor": "fb-10100099747946152_10100099771668612", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Income-based loan repayment is better than the status quo, but the upside for the lender is capped. Like, if your loan is $100k and you get a job where you're earning $1M then the lender isn't going to get back more than $100k + interest. This means that they need to charge higher interest to everyone in order to cover the cases where people never pay back the full amount.

Equity-style financing, where the lender gets a fixed percentage of income from everyone (or even something graduated) means that they can collect more money from people who end up doing super well than in income-based repayment.

Of course people have some expectation of how much they will earn, and the lenders need to worry about adverse selection, and this is an issue with both. Lenders would care about majors / fields, and if you wanted to study, say, history, you would probably get equity offers at a higher percentage than if you wanted to study, say, chemistry.", "timestamp": "1561811507"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099751509012", "anchor": "fb-10100099751509012", "service": "fb", "text": "Student loan debt survives bankruptcy, because if it didn't, then only the children of rich people who would co-sign their kids' student loans, would get the loans and go to college. The lenders wouldn't loan to poor students, who might declare bankruptcy soon after finishing college.", "timestamp": "1561782948"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099751509012&reply_comment_id=10100099755166682", "anchor": "fb-10100099751509012_10100099755166682", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I've always assumed it survives bankruptcy at least in part because unlike other things people take out loans for, you can't repossess an education.", "timestamp": "1561786051"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099751509012&reply_comment_id=10100099770520912", "anchor": "fb-10100099751509012_10100099770520912", "service": "fb", "text": "→ From the post: \"There are a range of ways we could go here. At one extreme we remove the exception for student loan debt entirely, which would more or less end the student loan system. At the other we could allow the debt to be bankruptcy-eligible after, say, five years. Lenders will then be willing to offer some money for college, but not so much that an appreciable number of borrowers will still have large amounts outstanding and negative net worth five years out of school.

But, ok, say we make loans unprofitable, college costs come down but not that much, and you still need a degree to get a job. Then kids from richer families will have even more of an advantage than they already do. This is where we ban considering whether a job applicant has a degree. The company can evaluate your skills and aptitude, but they can't consider where, or even if, you went to college.\"", "timestamp": "1561809961"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099752586852", "anchor": "fb-10100099752586852", "service": "fb", "text": "The government should fund college education in ways that are most beneficial for society. Maybe start with expanding 4 year nursing degree programs, and having competitive applications for those places. Then a smaller but still large number of places in masters programs for the RNs to become NPs. And then we can provide better healthcare to everyone in the country, because we have many more qualified primary care health providers. And yes, free liberal arts college education also needs to come along, but not for everyone who just decides that they have a whim that they'd like to do it -- decide how many slots the government will fund, and let students compete for those slots.", "timestamp": "1561783629"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892", "service": "fb", "text": "I haven't read The Case Against Education, but the idea that college has no impact on a person's qualifications beyond signaling seems pretty extreme. As you progress in your career it probably becomes increasingly true, but right out of school it seems kind of crazy not to consider it at all, even if the way in which it's used now goes too far in the other direction. It also contrasts sharply with asking people about e.g. their prior work experience. This also doesn't account for graduate programs, which bring plenty of loan debt of their own but are even harder for me to accept as irrelevant from a qualifications standpoint.", "timestamp": "1561786457"}, {"author": "Jacob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099756324362", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099756324362", "service": "fb", "text": "→ There's about five or six different ways you can conclusively demonstrate that college's only value right after graduation is signalling for most majors, all of which appear in TCAE. Ten years down the road it barely even does that.", "timestamp": "1561788044"}, {"author": "Todd", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099756963082", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099756963082", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I wouldn't be able to do my current job without some substitute for relevant things I learned in college and graduate school. Obviously that's anecdotal, but I have a hard time believing it's not true for many other people in engineering fields at a minimum.

Does TCAE contrast education with other factors that do provide value in terms of people's ability to perform at their jobs?", "timestamp": "1561788954"}, {"author": "Sarah", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099766124722", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099766124722", "service": "fb", "text": "→ You absolutely need specific science training before you can work in a lab. I wouldn't be able to do my job without that training, which is made evident by my degree.

That's all I can speak to atm.", "timestamp": "1561805976"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099771399152", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099771399152", "service": "fb", "text": "→ In science and engineering there are definitely things people learn in college that are specifically valuable to employers. For example, I was much better at programming on leaving college than on entering. College is a pretty inefficient way of teaching these skills, though. Things we could do instead:

* Job specific training programs. In college I took about ten CS classes and twenty two other classes, so I suspect I could have been similarly positioned for my first job in about one third the time. Then consider that in school we never talked about or practiced testing, version control, code reading, and other skills valuable in industry and there are probably syllabus changes that would make this time even more valuable from a skills perspective.

* Training at companies. Since the company is already filtering for a college degree and the people they want to hire are picking up many of the skills they're looking for in college, the company doesn't have to train you. But if people with a lot of potential were applying with fewer skills the companies could instead have a training system, like companies did a long time ago. My understanding is that companies are a lot less willing to train people than they used to be because employees are much more willing to switch jobs, though. You could address this with deferred compensation. Imagine instead of going to college at $50k/year you got a \"high school entry level\" job at your science/engineering company that paid, say, minimum wage now but, say, $100k/year of additional money that vested over the next six years. Your first year they lose money on you because they're training you and you're not doing useful things, but you're also not costing them that much yet. Once you're trained you don't jump ship for another company because you have a lot of deferred comp waiting for you. Now, another company could offer to match that deferred comp in order to get you to leave, but \"training at company X\" isn't completely transferrable (you're used to X's way of doing things) and the other company probably does better to (a) train people themselves or (b) if they're a startup or something hire people who have more years of actual experience.

In fields where something like current college education is a pretty efficient way of getting the necessary entry level skills, though, I would expect it to stick around.", "timestamp": "1561811072"}, {"author": "Aleksandra", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099780121672", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099780121672", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman there's a huge risk of harassment and possible abuse in situations where people know they probably can't leave their job for 6 years... And also, many people change their minds about their career a year in. I like a lot of what you've said in your post and comments, except for this last part, for the reasons mentioned.", "timestamp": "1561816846"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099787387112", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099787387112", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Aleksandra I agree this isn't good, though it's also similar to (or arguably better than) the situation a lot of people are in when completing a PhD.", "timestamp": "1561820391"}, {"author": "Paul", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099799452932", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099799452932", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I really recommend reading the book :)", "timestamp": "1561827386"}, {"author": "Alexander", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100099853659302", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100099853659302", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman Deferred compensation can and already does effectively exist in some industries in the form of large and virtually automatic pay rises that extend several years into your time at the firm (I.e. beyond the training period). There\u2019s nothing structurally preventing it.

To the extent that it doesn\u2019t exist in the extreme form you suggesr, that\u2019s a deliberate choice those companies and industries have made, probably because of hyperbolic discounting combined with the fact that working for minimum wage after university isn\u2019t a particularly appealing prospect, and so your competitors will beat you for the best talent by being more generous in those early years.", "timestamp": "1561852151"}, {"author": "Mark", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100100115784002", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100100115784002", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I make it a big point to include version control and testing for the classes I'm involved in, glad that stuff is still appreciated.", "timestamp": "1562018411"}, {"author": "Holly", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100100196487272", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100100196487272", "service": "fb", "text": "→ My first job had a training agreement such that they agreed to amortize the cost of the training with monthly write-downs over two years. If I stayed for two years I owed nothing; if I left early I had the training certification and owed the balance of the training costs. I did learn to be a better programmer in college, but it was nowhere near as efficient as on-the-job training for my SQL development and workflow analysis.

I left two years and 3 days after I started and basically doubled my hourly rate, but that one month of training has done more for my career and salary prospects than 4 years of college ever did despite two years at a lower pay rate.", "timestamp": "1562071570"}, {"author": "Sarah", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755560892&reply_comment_id=10100100366112342", "anchor": "fb-10100099755560892_10100100366112342", "service": "fb", "text": "→ This is a really interesting conversation, thanks for setting it off Jeff! I think the system you propose for training in companies with deferred comp to incentivize loyalty could be somewhat more conducive to abuse than doctoral school, because in grad school it's generally possible (though not trivially easy) to change advisors if the first one doesn't work out, which is almost like switching to a different company. The doctoral student system works economically partly because doctoral students come in with a lot of skills they learned in college, so they can contribute a lot of work while they're being trained up further. E.g. on my very first day of grad school I was assigned two seniors to mentor, even though I had no idea what was going on yet. Because of my education at Swarthmore, I was capable of picking things up fast enough to be a decent mentor. To be sure, I was a much better mentor as a fifth year grad student than a first year! But in general the idea of job-specific training is quite interesting. My biggest concern is the loss of interdisciplinary and inter-industry connections, conversations, and the replacement of general critical thinking, reading, and communicating skills learned in a liberal arts college (like Swarthmore) with very job-focused skills that may enable someone to do a narrow specific job more competently but may not leave them as cognitively flexible, pluralistic about ways of life, or aware of society. Of course, there may be more efficient ways to accomplish those goals than our current version of college!", "timestamp": "1562173800"}, {"author": "Jen", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755820372", "anchor": "fb-10100099755820372", "service": "fb", "text": "The equity financing thing is basically how my student debt works. I only pay back in months where I earn over a certain amount, and at some point it will be written off, I think when I'm 40. At least those were the terms I signed up to, but the government who issued the loan is quite capable of changing them. Love the idea of employers no longer being allowed to consider qualifications and only looking at skills.", "timestamp": "1561787026"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755820372&reply_comment_id=10100099771943062", "anchor": "fb-10100099755820372_10100099771943062", "service": "fb", "text": "→ The system you're describing either needs to be designed to lose money, or have high interest rates to cover the fraction of students who will never repay. See my reply to Cullyn above.", "timestamp": "1561811742"}, {"author": "Neil", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755820372&reply_comment_id=10100099780206502", "anchor": "fb-10100099755820372_10100099780206502", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Or limit financing to those whose prospects of paying it back are high (drive, field of interest, etc).", "timestamp": "1561816915"}, {"author": "Jen", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755820372&reply_comment_id=10100099787911062", "anchor": "fb-10100099755820372_10100099787911062", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Well it replaced the grant so i guess getting some money back was an improvement. That said it was a decision taken by the government so probably anything up to minutes of thought went into it", "timestamp": "1561820867"}, {"author": "Andrew", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099755820372&reply_comment_id=10100100225119892", "anchor": "fb-10100099755820372_10100100225119892", "service": "fb", "text": "→ > probably anything up to minutes of thought went into it

Didn't this lose the LibDems a whole bunch of votes from one of their major constituencies? I would expect them to have pushed hard on how this was structured.", "timestamp": "1562085301"}, {"author": "Wolf", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082", "service": "fb", "text": "I am in favor of a system where loans only have to be paid back in case of success, i.e. the high income level that was the reason to undergo the whole ordeal in the first place has actually been reached. That could be pinned to various markers of peoples income and would force loan givers to develop more sophisticated vetting mechanism.

Artificially forcing employers to disregards specific signals is going to come with its own set of problems, some of them harder to counter or even foresee. (this argument doesn't hold for adapting the loan system because that system already is heavily manipulated)

The usefulness of university education (I presume university == college here) both as as signalling marker *and* concerning the stuff actually learnt varies wildly depending on field of study.", "timestamp": "1561804257"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099774233472", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099774233472", "service": "fb", "text": "→ \"Artificially forcing employers to disregards specific signals is going to come with its own set of problems, some of them harder to counter or even foresee.\"

I agree this is worrying. But this is something we do with various protected classes (even if historically the female applicants you get tend to be better than the male ones you can't ignore male applicants for being male) so seems workable to me.

\"I presume university == college here\"

Yes, in the US they're synonyms and we usually say \"college\".", "timestamp": "1561811988"}, {"author": "Wolf", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099778460002", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099778460002", "service": "fb", "text": "→ \"But this is something we do with various protected classes [...] so seems workable to me.\"

And in my view, it is broken and also damaging.

\"(even if historically the female applicants you get tend to be better than the male ones you can't ignore male applicants for being male)\"

If there are more applicants than jobs, some people will be pushed from the troughs. If companies that pushed people from their troughs who would have bettered the company can do so without being overtaken by companies that don't do so, then there seems to be some kind of market failure that would probably best be addressed elsewhere.

For the others, there can (and should) be UBI.", "timestamp": "1561814975"}, {"author": "Jess", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099779597722", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099779597722", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Do either of you have an order-of-magnitude estimate for how much dead-weight loss is created by the existing and proposed signal bans? Say as a fraction of total tuition paid or total GDP, or on a per-student basis?", "timestamp": "1561816050"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099793953952", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099793953952", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jess I think the dead weight loss is negative for both signal bans:

* Protected classes reduce how much employer bigotry translates into less efficient hiring. There's an effect the other direction where we prohibit even statistically correct discrimination, but I think that is weaker than the main effect.

* Banning considering college frees people up to not need to go to college. Right now students pay an enormous amount in time and money for a signal that is worth much less to employers than the students pay.", "timestamp": "1561824159"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099794123612", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099794123612", "service": "fb", "text": "→ A lot of why we need this is rolling back years of responding to high demand for a positional good by subsidizing and promoting it.", "timestamp": "1561824241"}, {"author": "Alexander", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099797506832", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099797506832", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman Would you also ban employers from ever having their hiring process influenced by referrals or professional networks? People obviously know where their friends from college went to college, and networking is a big part of the employability benefit many people get out of college. If a startup founder hires all their smartest friends, they're very disproportionately likely to have gone to the founder's college, and if you ban startups from doing this you make it much more difficult to get a startup off the ground.", "timestamp": "1561826029"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099799457922", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099799457922", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Alexander in that case they're hiring people because \"I know them, and know they're smart\". Personal reasons to believe someone will be good at a job seem ok to have in hiring?", "timestamp": "1561827393"}, {"author": "Alexander", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099799637562", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099799637562", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman I think that's a big enough loophole to fit almost all the signalling impact of college through.", "timestamp": "1561827512"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099800775282", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099800775282", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Alexander no way. Tons of companies have \"we only hire people for this role who have a BA or higher\" and aren't hiring through networks", "timestamp": "1561828336"}, {"author": "Jess", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099801793242", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099801793242", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Sure Jeff, I presumed you thought the signal did more total harm then good based on the fact that you wanted to ban the signal. But I'm trying to ask what you and others think the size of the positive benefit is, before accounting for costs. And I guess you think that the employers as a sub population would vote to also ban this signal, since they would be able to lower salaries by more than losing the signal cost them?", "timestamp": "1561828956"}, {"author": "Jess", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100099802891042", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100099802891042", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff, many companies have a policy like that now, but they will adapt a new one if you make the signal illegal!", "timestamp": "1561829644"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099764947082&reply_comment_id=10100100004102812", "anchor": "fb-10100099764947082_10100100004102812", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman it sounds like you are saying that you support personal referrals (which inevitably will include nepotism and other motivations outside of legitimate job qualifications) and not university education. I address else where why I think university education is valuable, but I fail to see why personal referrals get a pass if you ban looking at university education; there is a huge cost to people who don't have those personal connections which hurts everyone, just in the same way you describe education being a huge cost. And I would argue that a university education gives you a lot more to offer than a friendship with someone on the inside does.", "timestamp": "1561948436"}, {"author": "Alexander", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099796463922", "anchor": "fb-10100099796463922", "service": "fb", "text": "A couple of arguments that I don't endorse but think ought to be considered here:
1) The middle class are going to spend huge amounts of money on signalling arms races no matter what. We're actually really lucky to have ended up in the equilibrium where they do this via college so the money winds up subsidizing basic research, rather than in an equilibrium where they do it via something like expensive haircuts (or, even worse, something with significant negative externalities). Any changes need to take care not to disrupt this equilibrium.
2) College is the one opportunity many people have in their lives to be or do anything interesting, and to explore different ways of thinking and behaving while relatively sheltered from unforgiving economic reality. The proposed policies risk undermining this shelter. If anything as society gets richer we should be increasing, not decreasing, the amount of time people are able and encouraged to spend in such circumstances.", "timestamp": "1561825284"}, {"author": "Paul", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099796463922&reply_comment_id=10100099818230302", "anchor": "fb-10100099796463922_10100099818230302", "service": "fb", "text": "→ I think the loan changes Jeff discusses would reduce total spend, not just shift it.", "timestamp": "1561837731"}, {"author": "Alexander", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099796463922&reply_comment_id=10100099833913872", "anchor": "fb-10100099796463922_10100099833913872", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Paul 1.1) Do you mean average income would fall? Otherwise a drop in spending in one place has to mean more spending somewhere else (though possibly on investment rather than consumption).
1.2) There are a large number of people who will spend basically all of their discretionary income on maximizing the percentile (of status or wealth) of their children in the next generation, if college ceases to be the best way to do that they'll spend every dollar they save on some other way of competing instead.
1.3) Even if the spending somehow dropped rather than shifting, it would still mean less funding for basic research.", "timestamp": "1561845016"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099796923002", "anchor": "fb-10100099796923002", "service": "fb", "text": "Maybe a key to this is to fix the corporate culture. Go back to treating employees as a valuable resource, as members of the team, all working together. Recent news is about how Boeing laid off some senior engineers a while back, and was using lower cost engineers (lower cost because they were less experienced, and in some cases lower cost because they were working remotely from a low-wage foreign country), and that led to some of the 737 Max problems. Did Boeing benefit from letting the bean-counters treat employees as a disposable commodity? Companies used to fund masters degree programs for their employees, funding the program and then promoting the employee based on their greater skills -- do any companies do that now? When Grumman Aircraft had a slowdown in government business, they started design of a business aircraft, figuring that they would probably recoup the cost of the engineers if they were lucky -- they did this because the engineers were part of the team, not a disposable commodity. The more the employees feel that they *want* to stay with the company, the more the company can invest in further education for the employees, it's mutually beneficial. But the bean-counters will tell me that this is stupid, because it's not profit-oriented according to their limited understanding of the benefits accruing to both employer and employee.", "timestamp": "1561825595"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1561906879"}, {"author": "Michael", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099796923002&reply_comment_id=10100099931907492", "anchor": "fb-10100099796923002_10100099931907492", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Elliot, this is a very complicated topic, so I'll throw out a thought, without claiming that I'm in any position to draw any conclusions. Maybe what's happening now with Boeing, having screwed themselves by letting go of good professional employees that they could have kept long term, maybe companies are going to see that they need to invest in good employees, value them, reward them, and give them the incentive to stay around. Stockholders of Boeing have to see now, that allowing the bean-counters to work on reducing costs in a manner that they thought would increase profit, has totally screwed the company. And this may be incentive for change, both at Boeing, and at similar companies that may see what happened there, and not want it to happen to them.", "timestamp": "1561911435"}, {"author": "Alexander", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099859288022", "anchor": "fb-10100099859288022", "service": "fb", "text": "I think these are interesting proposals, but one thing that immediately jumps out to me is that the student loan \u2018problem\u2019 is almost uniquely an American phenomenon, yet to the best of my knowledge other developed economies have not decided that \u2018too many\u2019 people go to college. Several of them actually have higher college attendance rates, typically mostly-publicly funded at far lower cost-Per-student numbers.

That suggests to me that the primary issue is the incredibly high (to an outsider, extortionate) cost-per-student of attending college in the US, since that\u2019s the aspect which is ~unique to the US. I\u2019ve never looked into exactly why that is (are the private colleges just enormously profitable? I\u2019d guess not but then I\u2019m
Interested in what extras they spend the money on), so there my constructive thoughts end.

It may of course be independently true that too many people to college. I think most of the individual arguments for this conclusion are pretty weak, but there are a lot of them. But regardless, my guess is that if you reduce the number of people going by say half, the remaining half will still be paying (again, to an outsider) totally insane numbers, because you\u2019ve missed whatever has caused the tremendous cost inflation. Which...is maybe half a solution, I guess?", "timestamp": "1561853775"}, {"author": "Jacob", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099859288022&reply_comment_id=10100099870610332", "anchor": "fb-10100099859288022_10100099870610332", "service": "fb", "text": "→ In the countries you mention, \"college\" includes vocational schools that are not considered college in the US.", "timestamp": "1561860101"}, {"author": "Alexander", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099859288022&reply_comment_id=10100099909173052", "anchor": "fb-10100099859288022_10100099909173052", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jacob Interesting point, I wasn't aware of that, I was just looking at things like https://data.oecd.org/.../population-with-tertiary... where the US is clearly not a particularly interesting outlier (only a couple of percentage points above the OECD average). But as you say, this includes some vocational programs.

Do you have any source for how the vocational/non-vocational split breaks down between different countries?", "timestamp": "1561899080"}, {"author": "Beth", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099912092202", "anchor": "fb-10100099912092202", "service": "fb", "text": "Taller people do earn more: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2709415/", "timestamp": "1561900321"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100099912092202&reply_comment_id=10100099916767832", "anchor": "fb-10100099912092202_10100099916767832", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Yes. So if you gave one group of kids growth supplements and not another group then I'd expect to see the first group earn more. But since height is positional I wouldn't expect giving growth supplements society-wide to increase income society-wide.", "timestamp": "1561902893"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100002525972", "anchor": "fb-10100100002525972", "service": "fb", "text": "As a hiring manager and someone who believes that government restrictions on liberty should be kept to a minimum, I strongly oppose a law that prohibits organizations from considering relevant background in making hiring decisions; and educational history is one such relevant factor.

Education is more than just a \"signal\" -- the fact of completing the degree requirements of an accredited institution is material and relevant, as it demonstrates an ability to persist over time and (for LACs) across domains. It also trains these skills, not merely signals their existence.

Separately, the knowledge and experience of any undergraduate degree could be achieved through self study and experimentation in informal (i.e. non-academic) contexts, so suggesting that some majors are relevant and others not in hiring is false; if your criterion is that it include an experience unattainable outside academia, then nothing qualifies.

I don't see why a political solution (especially one that limits people's liberty, as most of your suggestions would) is necessary at all. We have non-governmental means to influence universities, including contacting them directly to register our disapproval, public outcry against increased administrative and other non-core academic costs, and educating people on wise long-term financial planning, including how to avoid exorbitant costs (e.g. via community colleges and transferring, or via GI bill, or better understanding of financial aid and merit-based grants) and how to select majors that feed into high-paying, high-demand industries. We also can educate people on high-paying, high-demand industries that _don't_ require a university degree, to provide an alternate route.To say nothing of teaching people thrift and living within one's means at any stage of life.", "timestamp": "1561947204"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1561993573"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100002525972&reply_comment_id=10100100073798142", "anchor": "fb-10100100002525972_10100100073798142", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Elliot sure, but you additionally need to argue that (a) these skills aren't measurable and (b) college is a good proxy", "timestamp": "1561998250"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1561998365"}, {"author": "Christopher", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100002525972&reply_comment_id=10100100074980772", "anchor": "fb-10100100002525972_10100100074980772", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman, even if you could develop tests that better assessed abilities than knowing someone had a degree from a university (and hiring officers jump on such tests when they do exist), and even if university provided no useful information, simply knowing that someone went to college helps fill in a resume gap. Knowing someone's background helps clarify their trajectory and who they are as a holistic person, rather than just a bundle of skills. That may sound hokey, and it is certainly hard to assess, but it actually does matter in many fields where you are trying to hire someone to be more than (or something other than) a technical expert where clearly delineated skill sets are most important.", "timestamp": "1561998603"}, {"author": "Max", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100016113742", "anchor": "fb-10100100016113742", "service": "fb", "text": "I did hiring for 2.5 years at a tech startup. I strongly support making it illegal for employers to see educational background when making hiring decisions.

In aggregate, knowing that an applicant has a degree from X probably adds a small amount of signal. But on the level of hiring decisions dealing with individuals, it's just noise. From my experience, it added nothing, and may have hurt my judgement calls in multiple cases. The halo effect is too strong.

Unfortunately, I don't think any electorate would support making job applications degree-blind. (Though at the minimum, having a degree should not be a requirement.)

I don't know what the solution is here; I would propose a better idea if I could think of one. But I do think the private market should step it up and provide better tools to assess employee job performance prior to hiring.", "timestamp": "1561956445"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100016113742&reply_comment_id=10100100036393102", "anchor": "fb-10100100016113742_10100100036393102", "service": "fb", "text": "→ \"the private market should step it up and provide better tools to assess employee job performance prior to hiring\"

I'm curious what you think of Triplebyte?

(I have friends there)", "timestamp": "1561980680"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1561993043"}, {"author": "opted out", "source_link": "#", "anchor": "unknown", "service": "unknown", "text": "→ this user has requested that their comments not be shown here", "timestamp": "1561993339"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100016113742&reply_comment_id=10100100077840042", "anchor": "fb-10100100016113742_10100100077840042", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Elliot it's all work sample testing. Nothing specific to programmer hiring beyond that they've chosen that vertical to become calibrated on", "timestamp": "1561999820"}, {"author": "Max", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100016113742&reply_comment_id=10100100148433572", "anchor": "fb-10100100016113742_10100100148433572", "service": "fb", "text": "→ Jeff Kaufman I haven't used Triplebyte yet unfortunately.", "timestamp": "1562030027"}, {"author": "David Chudzicki", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100188952372", "anchor": "fb-10100100188952372", "service": "fb", "text": "If the high cost of education is mostly Baumol effect (https://marginalrevolution.com/.../05/the-baumol-effect.html), then I'm not sure how much these proposals would do to reduce cost.", "timestamp": "1562064145"}, {"author": "Jeff Kaufman", "source_link": "https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100099745955142?comment_id=10100100188952372&reply_comment_id=10100100196073102", "anchor": "fb-10100100188952372_10100100196073102", "service": "fb", "text": "→ David if fewer people go to college the cost is less. The main cost of college is already students time.", "timestamp": "1562070924"}]}